Dalimbar

Work In Progress - Full Projection to be posted soon!
As many of you know, I'm a political nerd and junky. As a public servant in RL I do not participate in electoral campaigns these days but in the 2010s I was involved in campaigns for the provincial and federal NDP in my local area. I've been doing election projections and forecasts since the late 2000s for pure personal amusement and to help my understanding on how a given race is going. Today, I'm happy to publish my forecast for the 2025 Canadian federal election, with the first results from Newfoundland and Labrador most likely being announced shortly after 7pm EDT Monday night, and then moving across the country throughout the night.
Polls close in each region in this general order:
Newfoundland - 8:30pm NDT, 8:00pm ADT, 7:00pm EDT, 6:00pm CDT, 5:00pm MDT, 4:00pm PDT
Atlantic - 9:00pm NDT, 8:30pm ADT, 7:30pm EDT, 6:30pm CDT, 5:30pm MDT, 4:30pm PDT
Quebec/Ontario - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Manitoba - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Saskatchewan/Alberta - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
British Columbia - 11:30pm NDT, 11:00pm ADT, 10:00pm EDT, 9:00pm CDT, 8:00pm MDT, 7:00pm PDT
Headline Polling Numbers
Due to how geographically diverse our country is, polling is often analyzed by the headline federal numbers for each party, but perhaps more importantly by the "regional" numbers. Although there are 10 provinces and 3 territories, standard polling practice is to poll the country based off of the following regions: Atlantic (which is Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick), Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), Alberta, and British Columbia. This is due to the lower populations in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces and resulting sample sizes. For the territories I group them in the following fashion: Nunavut's projection is tied in with the Prairies, Northwest Territories is with Alberta, and Yukon is with British Columbia. In the below section I'll show where polling has each party in each region and also noting the difference from what they scored in the 2021 election:
CANADA - Liberal Party of Canada LIB 42.50% (+9.88), Conservative Party of Canada CON 38.83% (+5.09), New Democratic Party of Canada NDP 8.63% (-9.19), Bloc Quebecois BLQ 6.00% (-1.64), Green Party of Canada GRN 2.00% (-0.33), People's Party of Canada PPC 1.23% (-3.70), Other Parties/Independents OTH 0.80% (-0.11)
Atlantic - LIB 54.87% (+11.27), CON 35.33% (+3.79), NDP 6.50% (-10.42), GRN 1.63% (-1.55), PPC 1.37% (-2.99), OTH 0.30% (-0.10)
Quebec - LIB 40.63% (+7.03), BLQ 25.87% (-6.26), CON 23.70% (+5.05), NDP 5.83% (-3.94), GRN 1.77% (+0.24), PPC 1.37% (-1.32), OTH 0.83% (-0.80)
Ontario - LIB 47.60% (+8.34), CON 39.87% (+5.00), NDP 8.20% (-9.65), GRN 2.03% (-0.19), PPC 1.43% (-4.02), OTH 0.87% (+0.52)
Prairies - CON 48.87% (+0.28), LIB 36.30% (+16.61), NDP 11.50% (-10.60), GRN 1.43% (+0.03), PPC 1.13% (-6.01),  OTH 0.77% (-0.32)
Alberta - CON 59.40% (+4.13), LIB 27.73% (+12.28), NDP 8.93% (-10.14), PPC 2.17% (-5.18), GRN 1.17% (+0.26), OTH 0.60% (-1.34)
British Columbia - LIB 40.73% (+13.73), CON 39.23% (+6.01), NDP 13.90% (-15.27), GRN 3.67% (-1.62), PPC 1.63% (-3.28), OTH 0.88% (+0.43)
There are a few events in play: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (running in Carleton, ON) has been running a populist conservative campaign which has removed the PPC from play on his right-flank, along with grabbing the attention of those who feel angry and/or left behind by the past 10 years of Liberal government. This is why he will probably receive the best popular vote that any centre-right politician has in the post-1993 modern Canadian system. The threat of Donald Trump (and how Poilievre looks Trump-lite) and the perceived competency of Liberal leader Mark Carney (running in Nepean, ON) in the face of Trump (or in general compared to Trudeau) has moved NDP, Green, and even a good number of Bloc Quebecois voters over to the Liberals. Trump absolutely scares us and any time he mentions "51st State" or announces a new round of tariff, we wrap our red-and-white maple leaf flag around us even harder. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh (running in Burnaby Centre, BC), Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (running in Beloeil--Chambly, QC) and Greens co-led by Elizabeth May (running in Saanich--Gulf Islands, BC) and Jonathan Pedneault (running in Outremont, QC) are all urging their supporters to keep supporting their parties to provide somewhat of a check on a Carney-led Liberal majority government, to apparent limited success. The critical issue of the campaign has been Canadian sovereignty/who can be the best to stand up for Canada against Trump, followed by affordability/cost of living which was the top issue before Trump returned and started to bully us. Before the election the other major issue, fatigue with Justin Trudeau, was removed from the equation when over the winter his party finally broke with him and he announced he would resign after a new leader was found, allowing Mark Carney (who has served as Governor of the Central Bank of Canada and then of England) to launch a very successful campaign to become the Liberal standard-bearer. The consumer-side of the Carbon Tax was also removed as a campaign issue (which was seen as an affordability/cost of living issue for many Canadians who hated high gas and other prices) for the most part when Carney became PM just before the campaign officially started and changed the taxation rate to 0%, effectively removing the consumer-side of the Carbon Tax while generally leaving the industrial-side of said tax. 
Headline Seat Numbers
Of course, the popular vote does not actually determine who forms government in Canada, it is the number of MPs a Prime Minister can count on to deliver confidence. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by roughly 1% over the Liberals, and yet because of how solid the Conservative vote is in rural Canada (particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural parts of BC, Manitoba and Ontario) and inefficient elsewhere, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau in both of those elections won a plurality of seats in the House and kept government, either working bill-by-bill with any opposition party who wanted to work with them (or more likely, abstain on the bill), or form a confidence and supply agreement as what happened between 2022 and 2024 with the Liberal government and the NDP. Based off of the map of ridings in the country, and where people are, it is common assumption that if the Conservatives want to form a minority government they need to have at least 2-3% above the Liberals, and would need 4%+ to get a majority depending on how the other parties do in their respective areas. And yet, here are the seat projections I get with the numbers today:
LIB - 188
CON - 126
BLQ - 21
NDP - 6
GRN - 2
PPC - 0
OTH - 0
How did I get these numbers? In the past election we had 338 ridings, in this one we have 343. Elections Canada and other sources provide good data on how to transpose the prior election onto the new boundaries, and from that data I use a regional-swing model (with some adjustments in seats for local conditions) to get the below seat projections. In the below section, I sort ridings into sub-regions, note beside the riding name which party current holds the seat, and then show the expected percentages for each party running in the seat. If it has this colour as with its name then that is a riding which is within 10 points margin between the first and second placed party and thus is what I figure is a "battleground" riding.
Atlantic Canada (32 seats)
Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats):
Avalon LIB - 61.15 LIB, 35.42 CON, 2.97 NDP, 0.46 OTH
Cape Spear LIB - 65.06 LIB, 22.38 CON, 11.97 NDP, 0.38 GRN, 0.22 OTH 
Central Newfoundland CON - 53.77 LIB, 45.63 CON, 0.61 NDP
Labrador LIB - 53.38 LIB, 33.96 CON, 12.65 NDP
Long Range Mountains LIB - 54.87 LIB, 42.78 CON, 1.34 PPC, 0.84 NDP, 0.17 OTH
St. John's East LIB - 55.48 LIB, 23.66 NDP, 20.33 CON, 0.31 GRN, 0.23 OTH
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas LIB - 57.02 LIB, 42.39 CON, 0.60 NDP
Prince Edward Island (4 seats):
Cardigan LIB - 60.90 LIB, 33.79 CON, 3.26 GRN, 0.73 NDP, 0.69 OTH, 0.62 PPC
Charlottetown LIB - 56.81 LIB, 33.70 CON, 8.05 GRN, 0.83 NDP, 0.62 PPC
Egmont LIB - 56.33 LIB, 35.02 CON, 7.96 GRN, 0.68 NDP
Malpeque LIB - 51.85 LIB, 35.71 CON, 11.14 GRN, 0.69 NDP, 0.61 PPC
Nova Scotia (11 seats):
Acadie--Annapolis CON - 54.22 CON, 41.04 LIB, 2.30 PPC, 2.25 NDP, 0.20 GRN
Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish LIB - 56.36 LIB, 38.51 CON, 3.73 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Central Nova LIB - 55.56 LIB, 36.78 CON, 5.65 NDP, 1.00 PPC, 0.43 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Cumberland--Colchester CON - 49.93 CON, 45.58 LIB, 2.02 NDP, 1.30 PPC, 1.16 GRN
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LIB - 62.49 LIB, 22.28 NDP, 6.83 CON, 6.74 PPC, 1.36 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Halifax LIB - 53.10 LIB, 29.55 NDP, 16.10 CON, 0.65 GRN, 0.60 PPC
Halifax West LIB - 58.42 LIB, 24.88 CON, 15.18 NDP, 0.93 GRN, 0.59 PPC
Kings--Hants LIB - 55.60 LIB, 33.97 CON, 8.49 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Sackville--Bedford--Preston LIB - 56.02 LIB, 28.63 CON, 14.35 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 GRN
South Shore--St. Margaret's CON - 49.73 LIB, 44.95 CON, 2.59 GRN, 2.14 OTH, 0.59 PPC
Sydney--Glace Bay LIB - 52.42 LIB, 37.70 CON, 9.15 NDP, 0.59 PPC, 0.14 OTH

New Brunswick (10 seats):
Acadie--Bathurst LIB - 77.15 LIB, 17.96 CON, 3.21 PPC, 1.69 NDP
Beausejour LIB - 66.84 LIB, 23.18 CON, 4.59 PPC, 4.15 GRN, 0.69 OTH, 0.55 NDP
Fredericton--Oromocto LIB - 48.70 LIB, 36.96 CON, 10.75 GRN, 2.73 NDP, 0.68 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Fundy Royal CON - 50.18 CON, 36.59 LIB, 5.65 PPC, 4.10 NDP, 3.48 GRN
Madawasaka--Restigouche LIB - 63.68 LIB, 31.22 CON, 4.59 PPC, 0.52 NDP
Miramichi--Grand Lake CON - 49.86 CON, 46.34 LIB, 3.21 GRN, 0.59 NDP
Moncton--Dieppe LIB - 61.57 LIB, 28.81 CON, 6.64 NDP, 2.97 GRN
Saint John--Kennebacasis LIB - 54.02 LIB, 41.44 CON, 2.82 NDP, GRN GRN, 0.28 OTH
Saint John--St. Croix CON - 54.13 CON, 39.42 LIB, 2.80 NDP, 2.68 GRN, 0.98 OTH
Tobique--Mactaquac CON - 56.91 CON, 34.01 LIB, 4.36 PPC, 3.53 GRN, 1.19 NDP

Quebec (78 seats)
Eastern Quebec (4 seats):
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Levis CON - 57.50 CON, 23.35 LIB, 16.83 BLQ, 1.99 NDP, 0.32 PPC
Cote-du-Sud--Riviere-du-Loup--Kataskomiq--Temiscouata CON - 49.78 CON, 25.92 LIB, 23.37 BLQ, 0.43 PPC, 0.24 GRN, 0.14 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Gaspesie--Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj BLQ - 46.97 LIB, 38.00 BLQ, 13.31 CON, 0.68 PPC, 0.59 OTH, 0.45 NDP
Rimouski--La Matapedia BLQ - 48.12 BLQ, 29.14 LIB, 16.25 CON, 3.75 OTH, 2.02 NDP, 0.73 PPC
Cote-Nord--Saguenay (5 seats):
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord CON - 45.05 CON, 27.44 BLQ, 24.87 LIB, 1.41 GRN, 0.77 NDP, 0.46 PPC
Cote-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan BLQ - 46.33 BLQ, 25.98 CON, 25.78 LIB, 1.49 OTH, 0.42 NDP
Jonquiere BLQ - 36.26 BLQ, 32.76 CON, 27.20 LIB, 1.94 GRN, 1.41 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Lac-Saint-Jean BLQ - 43.46 BLQ, 29.13 CON, 24.85 LIB, 1.84 GRN, 0.48 PPC, 0.24 NDP
Montmorency--Charlevoix BLQ - 38.86 CON, 30.75 BLQ, 27.36 LIB, 1.54 GRN, 0.81 NDP, 0.68 PPC
Quebec City (5 seats):
Beauport--Limoilou BLQ - 35.13 CON, 31.37 LIB, 24.49 BLQ, 5.80 NDP, 2.28 GRN, 0.54 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles CON - 50.00 CON, 27.38 LIB, 18.54 BLQ, 2.83 NDP, 0.88 PPC, 0.36 OTH
Louis-Hebert LIB - 45.70 LIB, 29.10 CON, 20.26 BLQ, 4.50 NDP, 0.43 PPC
Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk CON - 57.48 CON, 25.14 LIB, 14.10 BLQ, 2.26 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Quebec-Centre LIB - 46.39 LIB, 23.80 BLQ, 12.54 OTH, 10.57 NDP, 6.71 PPC
Central Quebec (8 seats):
Becancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnobak BLQ - 48.81 BLQ, 24.20 LIB, 22.13 CON, 2.05 GRN, 1.43 NDP, 1.37 PPC
Berthier--Maskinonge BLQ - 30.10 BLQ, 27.24 NDP, 22.87 LIB, 16.40 CON, 1.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN
Joliette--Manawan BLQ - 49.29 BLQ, 29.72 LIB, 16.05 CON, 2.63 GRN, 2.32 NDP
Montcalm BLQ - 47.71 BLQ, 28.59 LIB, 19.49 CON, 4.21 NDP
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier CON - 57.54 CON, 22.30 LIB, 17.63 BLQ, 1.25 PPC, 0.90 NDP, 0.37 GRN
Repentigny BLQ - 45.09 BLQ, 35.28 LIB, 13.91 CON, 3.63 NDP, 1.63 OTH, 0.47 PPC
Saint-Maurice--Champlain LIB - 49.48 LIB, 23.81 BLQ, 23.05 CON, 1.54 GRN, 1.12 NDP, 0.55 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Trois-Rivieres BLQ - 35.66 LIB, 34.40 CON, 23.23 BLQ, 4.11 NDP, 1.54 GRN, 0.59 PPC, 0.46 OTH
Eastern Townships (10 seats):
Beauce (PPC Leader) CON - 53.63 CON, 19.93 LIB, 17.08 PPC, 9.17 BLQ, 0.18 NDP
Brome--Missisquoi LIB - 42.25 LIB, 28.63 BLQ, 21.52 CON, 2.89 GRN, 2.55 NDP, 2.16 PPC
Compton--Stanstead LIB - 43.80 LIB, 24.32 BLQ, 22.57 CON, 3.65 NDP, 3.13 GRN, 2.53 PPC
Drummond BLQ - 41.04 BLQ, 26.57 LIB, 23.67 CON, 7.99 NDP, 0.72 PPC
Levis--Lotbiniere CON - 54.84 CON, 23.09 LIB, 16.78 BLQ, 4.14 NDP, 1.15 PPC
Megantic-L'Erable--Lotbiniere CON - 61.90 CON, 21.05 LIB, 13.36 BLQ, 2.20 PPC, 0.77 NDP, 0.72 OTH
Richmond--Arthabaska CON - 54.95 CON, 22.06 LIB, 18.50 BLQ, 2.28 PPC, 1.58 OTH, 0.63 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton BLQ - 41.35 BLQ, 29.88 LIB, 18.73 CON, 7.86 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.62 GRN
Shefford BLQ - 41.46 LIB, 36.01 BLQ, 17.58 CON, 2.52 NDP, 2.42 PPC
Sherbrooke LIB - 44.64 LIB, 22.85 BLQ, 17.95 CON, 10.12 NDP, 3.21 GRN, 1.22 PPC
Monteregie (11 seats):
Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntington BLQ - 42.24 BLQ, 34.42 LIB, 17.02 CON, 3.62 NDP, 2.21 PPC, 0.58 GRN
Beloeil--Chambly (BLQ Leader) BLQ - 47.72 BLQ, 31.51 LIB, 13.88 CON, 5.87 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Brossard--Saint-Lambert LIB - 61.19 LIB, 17.09 CON, 13.73 BLQ, 6.51 NDP, 1.19 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Chateauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville BLQ - 43.55 LIB, 30.50 BLQ, 17.41 CON, 4.03 NDP, 2.61 PPC, 1.90 GRN
La Prairie--Atateken BLQ - 41.44 LIB, 37.26 BLQ, 14.78 CON, 3.36 NDP, 1.19 GRN, 1.27 PPC
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne LIB - 48.24 LIB, 29.05 BLQ, 13.41 CON, 7.55 NDP, 1.61 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert BLQ - 46.46 LIB, 35.15 BLQ, 12.97 CON, 5.43 NDP
Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie BLQ - 40.95 LIB, 38.97 BLQ, 14.54 CON, 4.37 NDP, 0.78 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Vercheres BLQ - 48.14 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 14.01 CON, 4.00 NDP, 0.75 PPC
Saint-Jean BLQ - 40.01 BLQ, 35.42 LIB, 18.05 CON, 3.60 NDP, 2.64 GRN, 0.29 PPC
Vaudreuil LIB - 54.39 LIB, 21.34 CON, 14.44 BLQ, 6.71 NDP, 2.77 GRN, 0.35 PPC
Eastern Montreal (9 seats):
Ahuntsic--Cartierville LIB - 59.75 LIB, 16.45 BLQ, 14.04 CON, 9.23 NDP 0.54 OTH
Bourassa LIB - 67.98 LIB, 12.39 BLQ, 12.05 CON, 4.96 NDP, 2.33 PPC, 0.30 OTH
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est LIB - 45.45 LIB, 25.23 BLQ, 16.41 NDP, 10.39 CON, 2.28 GRN, 0.25 OTH
Honore-Mercier LIB - 66.71 LIB, 15.29 CON, 10.02 BLQ, 3.37 NDP, 2.86 PPC, 1.74 GRN
La Pointe-de-l'Ile BLQ - 40.43 BLQ, 39.41 LIB, 12.74 CON, 5.82 NDP, 1.31 OTH, 0.30 GRN
Laurier--Sainte-Marie LIB - 46.59 LIB, 26.40 NDP, 13.89 BLQ, 9.56 CON, 2.47 GRN, 0.65 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Papineau LIB - 58.47 LIB, 20.21 NDP, 10.10 CON, 8.91 BLQ, 1.29 OTH, 1.02 PPC
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie NDP - 44.41 NDP, 29.99 LIB, 14.90 BLQ, 8.14 CON, 2.57 GRN
Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel LIB - 75.80 LIB, 14.63 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.87 BLQ, 2.43 PPC
Western Montreal (9 seats):
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle LIB - 58.83 LIB, 16.53 CON, 9.45 BLQ, 9.19 NDP, 3.07 GRN, 2.87 PPC, 0.06 OTH
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB - 60.99 LIB, 21.65 CON, 9.36 NDP, 3.48 GRN, 2.88 BLQ, 1.64 PPC
LaSalle-Emard--Verdun BLQ - 44.10 LIB, 17.99 BLQ, 17.82 NDP, 14.25 CON, 2.77 GRN, 2.12 OTH, 0.94 PPC
Mount Royal LIB - 62.79 LIB, 27.58 CON, 6.26 NDP, 2.85 BLQ, 0.52 OTH
Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount LIB - 58.10 LIB, 17.38 CON, 13.31 NDP, 7.11 GRN, 2.90 BLQ, 1.10 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Outremont (GRN co-Leader) LIB - 51.37 LIB, 16.88 GRN, 12.89 CON, 9.69 NDP, 9.18 BLQ
Pierrefonds--Dollard LIB - 61.98 LIB, 24.75 CON, 7.70 NDP, 3.00 BLQ, 2.39 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Saint-Laurent  LIB - 65.45 LIB, 22.35 CON, 6.81 NDP, 3.12 BLQ, 1.83 PPC, 0.36 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Ville-Marie--Le-Sud-Ouest--Ile-des-Soeurs LIB - 58.50 LIB, 18.79 CON, 13.85 NDP, 5.58 BLQ, 2.98 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Laval (4 seats):
Alfred-Pellan LIB - 55.57 LIB, 20.63 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.89 NDP, 0.28 PPC
Laval-Les Iles LIB - 56.71 LIB, 25.52 CON, 13.06 BLQ, 4.70 NDP
Marc-Aurele-Fortin LIB - 51.63 LIB, 24.96 BLQ, 18.26 CON, 5.15 NDP
Vimy LIB - 57.30 LIB, 20.96 CON, 16.11 BLQ, 5.63 NDP
Laurentides--Outaouais--Northern Quebec (13 seats):
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BLQ - 34.47 LIB, 32.61 BLQ, 23.50 CON, 9.42 NDP
Abitibi--Temiscamingue BLQ - 44.48 BLQ, 31.82 LIB, 18.28 CON, 3.07 NDP, 2.37 OTH
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation LIB - 46.32 LIB, 26.59 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.53 PPC, 3.25 NDP, 0.69 GRN
Gatineau LIB - 57.73 LIB, 17.23 BLQ, 16.22 CON, 5.46 NDP, 2.72 PPC, 0.63 OTH
Hull--Aylmer LIB - 59.49 LIB, 15.84 CON, 9.82 BLQ, 8.81 NDP, 3.06 GRN, 2.33 PPC, 0.64 OTH
Laurentides--Labelle BLQ - 46.39 BLQ, 30.66 LIB, 15.76 CON, 2.87 GRN, 2.52 PPC, 1.80 NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut BLQ - 41.54 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 16.93 CON, 3.25 PPC, 3.18 NDP, 2.00 GRN
Mirabel BLQ - 39.60 BLQ, 31.75 LIB, 18.57 CON, 4.84 NDP, 2.66 PPC, 2.58 GRN
Pontiac-Kitigan Zibi LIB - 50.89 LIB, 26.48 CON, 8.88 BLQ, 7.43 NDP, 3.16 GRN, 3.15 PPC
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles BLQ - 42.37 LIB, 34.34 BLQ, 15.25 CON, 3.28 NDP, 2.06 GRN, 1.40 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Riviere-du-Nord BLQ - 46.07 BLQ, 30.43 LIB, 19.53 CON, 3.96 NDP
Terrebonne BLQ - 37.54 LIB, 36.38 BLQ, 16.72 CON, 3.92 NDP, 2.87 GRN, 2.56 PPC
Therese-De Blainville BLQ - 43.10 LIB, 34.80 BLQ, 16.31 CON, 4.35 NDP, 1.44 PPC
Ontario (122 seats)
Ottawa (8 seats):
Carleton (CON Leader) CON - 56.45 CON, 39.77 LIB, 1.93 GRN, 1.57 NDP, 0.28 OTH
Kanata LIB - 51.78 LIB, 40.50 CON, 5.16 NDP, 2.29 GRN, 0.27 OTH
Nepean (LIB Leader) LIB - 53.62 LIB, 37.71 CON, 6.54 NDP, 1.75 GRN, 0.38 PPC
Orleans LIB - 60.21 LIB, 32.95 CON, 4.83 NDP, 1.43 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Ottawa Centre LIB - 53.38 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 20.06 CON, 2.54 GRN, 0.90 OTH
Ottawa South LIB - 57.98 LIB, 31.22 CON, 8.31 NDP, 1.96 GRN, 0.53 OTH
Ottawa West--Nepean LIB - 53.81 LIB, 32.62 CON, 10.46 NDP, 2.70 GRN, 0.27 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester LIB - 57.33 LIB, 25.61 CON, 13.56 NDP, 2.86 GRN, 0.36 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Eastern Ontario (8 seats):
Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke CON - 56.99 CON, 27.82 LIB, 11.45 NDP, 1.88 OTH, 1.86 GRN
Bay of Quinte CON - 46.27 CON, 45.64 LIB, 5.85 NDP, 2.24 GRN
Hastings--Lenox and Addington--Tyendinaga CON - 51.08 CON, 43.15 LIB, 2.04 PPC, 1.98 GRN, 1.75 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB - 49.17 LIB, 29.26 CON, 19.22 NDP, 2.35 GRN
Lanark--Frontenac CON - 56.62 CON, 34.48 LIB, 5.99 NDP, 2.92 GRN
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON - 55.63 CON, 33.65 LIB, 5.40 NDP, 3.52 GRN, 1.81 PPC
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland LIB - 55.65 LIB, 37.35 CON, 2.38 PPC, 1.84 GRN, 1.64 OTH, 1.14 NDP
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry CON - 61.92 CON, 33.13 LIB, 2.27 GRN, 1.35 NDP, 1.33 OTH
Central Ontario (10 seats):
Barrie South--Innisfil CON - 52.78 CON, 37.29 LIB, 6.16 NDP, 3.77 PPC
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte CON - 52.85 CON, 38.82 LIB, 7.06 NDP, 1.13 OTH, 0.14 GRN
Bruce--Grey--Owen South CON - 54.18 CON, 33.58 LIB, 4.02 PPC, 3.94 NDP, 2.88 GRN, 1.42 OTH
Dufferin--Caledon CON - 54.15 CON, 36.78 LIB, 4.36 GRN, 3.15 PPC, 0.85 OTH, 0.71 NDP
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CON - 57.52 CON, 33.36 LIB, 5.91 NDP, 3.21 PPC
New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury CON - 52.77 CON, 38.88 LIB, 3.62 PPC, 3.53 NDP, 1.20 GRN
Northumberland--Clarke CON - 48.96 CON, 42.37 LIB, 4.30 NDP, 2.39 GRN, 1.46 PPC, 0.52 OTH
Peterborough CON - 44.18 CON, 43.17 LIB, 9.53 NDP, 2.04 GRN, 0.80 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Simcoe North CON - 47.11 CON, 39.21 LIB, 6.33 NDP, 3.64 PPC, 2.87 GRN, 0.84 OTH
Simcoe--Grey CON - 52.61 CON, 36.42 LIB, 4.17 GRN, 3.70 NDP, 3.09 PPC
Durham--York (15 seats):
Ajax LIB - 64.66 LIB, 28.42 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.17 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill LIB - 52.61 LIB, 46.62 CON, 0.31 NDP, 0.28 PPC, 0.19 GRN
Bowmanville--Oshawa North CON - 55.10 CON, 36.13 LIB, 5.82 NDP, 2.30 OTH, 0.65 GRN
King--Vaughan CON - 49.72 LIB, 48.58 CON, 1.08 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.27 NDP
Markham--Stouffville LIB - 58.83 LIB, 38.48 CON, 1.80 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.21 NDP
Markham--Thornhill LIB - 68.75 LIB, 29.63 CON, 1.05 NDP, 0.40 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Markham--Unionville LIB - 54.45 LIB, 42.82 CON, 2.42 GRN, 0.31 NDP
Newmarket--Aurora LIB - 53.09 LIB, 43.83 CON, 3.07 NDP
Oshawa CON - 47.15 CON, 31.84 LIB, 19.25 NDP, 1.75 GRN
Pickering--Brooklin LIB - 56.45 LIB, 38.98 CON, 3.81 NDP, 0.35 PPC, 0.34 OTH, 0.06 GRN
Richmond Hill South LIB - 55.82 LIB, 43.34 CON, 0.33 PPC, 0.26 NDP, 0.22 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Thornhill CON - 55.07 CON, 42.52 LIB, 1.47 GRN, 0.58 PPC, 0.37 NDP
Vaughan--Woodbridge LIB - 54.09 LIB, 44.38 CON, 1.36 PPC, 0.17 NDP
Whitby LIB - 53.49 LIB, 39.65 CON, 4.82 NDP, 1.45 GRN, 0.60 OTH
York--Durham CON - 57.18 CON, 36.74 LIB, 3.04 NDP, 2.50 PPC, 0.53 GRN
Suburban Toronto (13 seats):
Don Valley North LIB - 60.76 LIB, 36.90 CON, 1.61 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 NDP, 0.05 OTH
Etobicoke Centre LIB - 56.98 LIB, 41.36 CON, 1.66 NDP
Etobicoke North LIB - 67.26 LIB, 30.31 CON, 1.05 OTH, 0.95 NDP, 0.34 PPC, 0.09 GRN
Etobicoke--Lakeshore LIB - 56.09 LIB, 37.61 CON, 4.66 NDP, 1.26 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Humber River--Black Creek LIB - 69.37 LIB, 22.45 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 OTH
Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East LIB - 64.62 LIB, 30.51 CON, 4.40 NDP, 0.47 PPC
Scarborough North LIB - 75.60 LIB, 22.27 CON, 2.13 NDP
Scarborough Southwest LIB - 65.91 LIB, 25.07 CON, 6.39 NDP, 2.08 GRN, 0.34 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Scarborough--Agincourt LIB - 65.20 LIB, 33.59 CON, 1.21 NDP
Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park LIB - 69.55 LIB, 26.61 CON, 3.77 NDP, 0.08 GRN
Scarborough--Woburn LIB - 68.86 LIB, 26.75 CON, 3.42 NDP, 0.95 OTH, 0.03 GRN
Willowdale LIB - 60.26 LIB, 38.21 CON, 1.53 NDP
York Centre LIB - 55.81 LIB, 43.50 CON, 0.69 NDP
Central Toronto (11 seats):
Beaches--East York LIB - 64.64 LIB, 18.85 CON, 12.97 NDP, 2.51 GRN, 1.03 OTH
Davenport LIB - 51.94 LIB, 29.86 NDP, 15.32 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Don Valley West LIB - 64.93 LIB, 33.80 CON, 0.81 GRN, 0.34 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Eglinton--Lawrence LIB - 55.86 LIB, 40.69 CON, 2.84 GRN, 0.42 PPC, 0.19 NDP
Spadina--Harbourfront LIB - 45.32 LIB, 26.65 CON, 24.15 NDP, 3.05 GRN, 0.45 PPC, 0.38 OTH
Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park LIB - 51.05 LIB, 28.83 NDP, 17.71 CON, 1.67 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Toronto Centre LIB - 58.01 LIB, 17.25 CON, 16.26 NDP, 7.82 GRN, 0.39 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Toronto--Danforth LIB - 56.65 LIB, 23.93 NDP, 16.48 CON, 1.71 GRN, 1.21 OTH
Toronto--St. Paul's CON - 53.84 LIB, 37.12 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.16 NDP, 0.33 PPC, 0.21 OTH
University--Rosedale LIB - 54.90 LIB, 21.90 CON, 18.24 NDP, 4.24 GRN, 0.72 OTH
York South--Weston--Etobicoke LIB - 65.03 LIB, 28.53 CON, 6.45 NDP
Peel (12 seats):
Brampton Centre LIB - 56.49 LIB, 36.48 CON, 6.19 NDP, 0.50 PPC, 0.24 OTH, 0.10 GRN
Brampton East LIB - 60.70 LIB, 32.76 CON, 5.85 NDP, 0.46 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Brampton North--Caledon LIB - 58.54 LIB, 36.69 CON, 4.35 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Brampton South LIB - 61.75 LIB, 33.80 CON, 3.76 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Brampton West LIB - 64.61 LIB, 31.65 CON, 3.05 NDP, 0.63 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Brampton--Chinguacousy Park LIB - 57.72 LIB, 34.58 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.37 PPC, 0.08 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Mississauga Centre LIB - 62.68 LIB, 33.93 CON, 2.28 NDP, 0.91 OTH, 0.20 PPC
Mississauga East--Cooksville LIB - 58.62 LIB, 36.63 CON, 2.43 PPC, 1.39 OTH, 0.93 NDP
Mississauga--Erin Mills LIB - 59.13 LIB, 38.08 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.66 NDP, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH
Mississauga--Lakeshore LIB - 54.62 LIB, 42.49 CON, 2.32 GRN, 0.40 PPC, 0.12 NDP, 0.06 OTH
Mississauga--Malton LIB - 60.31 LIB, 34.45 CON, 4.79 NDP, 0.45 PPC
Mississauga--Streetsville LIB - 55.73 LIB, 39.42 CON, 2.48 NDP, 2.01 GRN, 0.37 PPC
Hamilton--Halton--Niagara (14 seats):
Burlington LIB - 54.08 LIB, 42.25 CON, 1.79 GRN, 1.21 NDP, 0.41 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Burlington North--Milton West LIB - 56.81 LIB, 41.97 CON, 0.91 NDP, 0.30 PPC
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North CON - 49.21 CON, 40.77 LIB, 4.94 NDP, 2.68 PPC, 2.40 GRN
Hamilton Centre NDP - 37.49 NDP, 34.94 LIB, 21.47 CON, 2.54 PPC, 2.48 GRN, 1.09 OTH
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek LIB - 48.42 LIB, 35.35 CON, 12.79 NDP, 3.45 PPC
Hamilton Mountain LIB - 43.53 LIB, 30.20 CON, 22.58 NDP, 2.26 PPC, 1.43 OTH
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas LIB - 52.63 LIB, 34.12 CON, 10.02 NDP, 2.41 GRN, 0.42 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Milton East--Halton Hills South LIB - 50.31 LIB, 46.05 CON, 2.37 GRN, 0.84 PPC, 0.31 NDP, 0.13 OTH
Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake CON - 43.56 LIB, 42.40 CON, 8.20 NDP, 3.55 PPC, 1.76 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara South CON - 41.27 LIB, 38.43 CON, 13.15 NDP, 4.92 PPC, 1.71 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara West CON - 49.17 CON, 40.25 LIB, 5.47 NDP, 3.06 PPC, 2.04 OTH
Oakville East LIB - 53.88 LIB, 43.86 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.33 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.16 NDP
Oakville West LIB - 55.16 LIB, 42.59 CON, 1.53 GRN, 0.37 PPC, 0.22 NDP, 0.12 OTH
St. Catharines LIB - 46.80 LIB, 37.48 CON, 12.33 NDP, 2.57 PPC, 0.82 OTH

Midwestern Ontario (12 seats):
Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations CON - 45.27 CON, 35.99 LIB, 10.52 NDP, 4.75 PPC, 2.46 GRN, 1.01 OTH
Cambridge LIB - 46.69 LIB, 41.28 CON, 7.56 NDP, 3.33 GRN, 1.15 OTH
Guelph LIB - 49.59 LIB, 28.42 CON, 12.48 NDP, 7.69 GRN, 1.18 OTH, 0.64 PPC
Haldimand--Norfolk CON - 52.39 CON, 35.86 LIB, 6.47 PPC, 3.64 NDP, 1.50 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Huron--Bruce CON - 58.16 CON, 34.61 LIB, 5.27 NDP, 1.85 OTH, 0.11 GRN
Kitchener Centre GRN - 33.14 GRN, 29.87 CON, 25.69 LIB, 7.85 NDP, 2.64 PPC, 0.80 OTH
Kitchener South--Hespeler LIB - 45.80 LIB, 40.54 CON, 6.62 NDP, 3.26 GRN, 2.72 PPC, 1.06 OTH
Kitchener--Conestoga LIB - 48.48 LIB, 43.25 CON, 4.72 NDP, 3.55 PPC
Oxford CON - 50.26 CON, 35.20 LIB, 5.65 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 2.84 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Perth--Wellington CON - 53.66 CON, 33.03 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 5.74 PPC
Waterloo LIB - 53.89 LIB, 32.38 CON, 9.48 NDP, 3.23 GRN, 0.52 OTH, 0.50 PPC
Wellington--Halton Hills North CON - 51.96 CON, 38.83 LIB, 4.64 GRN, 2.30 NDP, 2.27 PPC

Southwestern Ontario (10 seats):
Chatham-Kent--Leamington CON - 47.52 CON, 35.18 LIB, 10.81 PPC, 5.06 NDP, 1.43 GRN
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South CON - 54.70 CON, 28.97 LIB, 8.55 PPC, 7.78 NDP
Essex CON - 46.33 CON, 24.42 LIB, 22.78 NDP, 6.47 PPC
London Centre LIB - 46.00 LIB, 29.75 CON, 20.72 NDP, 1.77 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.67 OTH
London West LIB - 45.18 LIB, 39.88 CON, 13.27 NDP, 1.46 OTH, 0.21 GRN
London--Fanshawe NDP - 33.83 NDP, 31.51 LIB, 29.39 CON, 5.27 PPC
Middlesex--London CON - 50.91 CON, 35.39 LIB, 7.60 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN, 0.71 OTH
Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong CON - 51.79 CON, 28.19 LIB, 11.62 NDP, 7.01 PPC, 1.39 OTH
Windsor West NDP - 36.12 LIB, 34.59 NDP, 24.34 CON, 4.32 PPC, 0.61 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore LIB - 39.35 LIB, 31.94 CON, 20.60 NDP, 6.27 PPC, 1.02 GRN, 0.82 OTH
Northern Ontario (9 seats):
Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk NDP - 34.94 LIB, 30.21 CON, 26.43 NDP, 8.41 PPC
Kenora--Kiiwetinoong CON - 48.38 CON, 28.19 LIB, 19.32 NDP, 2.37 PPC, 1.21 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Nipissing--Timiskaming LIB - 45.14 LIB, 36.94 CON, 13.74 NDP, 3.95 PPC, 0.23 GRN
Parry Sound--Muskoka CON - 53.78 CON, 32.24 LIB, 9.97 NDP, 4.01 PPC
Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma CON - 41.59 CON, 40.73 LIB, 16.15 NDP, 1.04 OTH, 0.50 GRN
Sudbury LIB - 44.26 LIB, 33.15 CON, 20.29 NDP, 2.30 PPC
Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt LIB - 40.22 LIB, 31.96 CON, 20.68 NDP, 4.94 PPC, 1.54 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LIB - 42.71 LIB, 34.39 CON, 18.90 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 1.35 GRN
Thunder Bay--Superior North LIB - 48.93 LIB, 29.00 CON, 18.30 NDP, 2.03 PPC, 1.74 GRN
Prairies (28 seats)
Rural Manitoba (6 seats):
Brandon--Souris CON - 61.52 CON, 28.70 LIB, 9.78 NDP
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP - 42.44 LIB, 32.82 NDP, 24.62 CON, 0.12 PPC
Portage--Lisgar CON - 57.93 CON, 26.67 LIB, 14.01 PPC, 1.10 GRN, 0.28 NDP
Provencher CON - 49.11 CON, 33.63 LIB, 12.02 PPC, 3.11 GRN, 2.13 NDP
Riding Mountain CON - 59.58 CON, 29.52 LIB, 4.62 PPC, 4.03 NDP, 2.25 GRN
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman CON - 57.09 CON, 29.72 LIB, 8.71 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.50 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Winnipeg (8 seats):
Elmwood--Transcona NDP - 37.38 NDP, 34.56 CON, 26.81 LIB, 0.99 GRN, 0.26 PPC
Kildonan--St. Paul CON - 44.38 LIB, 42.40 CON, 13.04 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital LIB - 60.62 LIB, 28.33 CON, 10.87 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Winnipeg Centre NDP - 45.28 LIB, 38.92 NDP, 12.82 CON, 2.43 GRN, 0.38 OTH, 0.16 PPC
Winnipeg North LIB - 69.19 LIB, 16.06 NDP, 12.88 CON, 1.24 GRN, 0.32 PPC, 0.31 OTH
Winnipeg South LIB - 63.34 LIB, 31.27 CON, 3.77 NDP, 1.52 GRN, 0.09 PPC
Winnipeg South Centre LIB - 63.69 LIB, 25.09 CON, 8.05 NDP, 2.71 GRN, 0.33 OTH, 0.13 PPC 
Winnipeg West CON - 55.22 LIB, 38.73 CON, 4.07 NDP, 1.98 GRN
Southern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan CON - 61.47 CON, 22.95 LIB, 8.69 NDP, 5.55 PPC, 1.33 GRN
Regina--Lewvan CON - 45.49 CON, 29.89 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 1.27 GRN, 0.23 PPC 
Regina--Qu'Appelle CON - 60.11 CON, 27.07 LIB, 12.58 NDP, 0.24 PPC
Regina--Wascana CON - 48.73 CON, 42.07 LIB, 7.48 NDP, 1.65 GRN, 0.08 PPC
Souris--Moose Mountain CON - 78.43 CON, 20.92 LIB, 0.22 NDP, 0.22 GRN, 0.21 OTH
Swift Current-Grasslands--Kindersley CON - 73.88 CON, 21.05 LIB, 4.96 OTH, 0.11 NDP
Yorkton--Melville CON - 71.19 CON, 23.04 LIB, 2.20 OTH, 1.88 GRN, 1.69 NDP
Northern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake CON - 66.62 CON, 24.30 LIB, 5.28 OTH, 3.81 NDP
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek CON - 71.71 CON, 23.44 LIB, 4.85 NDP
Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River LIB - 59.04 LIB, 26.12 CON, 14.83 NDP
Prince Albert CON - 65.18 CON, 29.29 LIB, 5.53 NDP
Saskatoon South CON - 48.71 CON, 30.39 LIB, 19.53 NDP, 1.26 GRN, 0.10 PPC
Saskatoon West CON - 45.54 CON, 28.60 NDP, 24.70 LIB, 1.08 GRN, 0.07 PPC
Saskatoon--University CON - 46.98 CON, 27.43 LIB, 24.68 NDP, 0.91 GRN
Alberta (37 seats)
Northern Alberta (8 seats):
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CON - 71.57 CON, 19.24 LIB, 7.52 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.22 NDP, 0.20 OTH
Grande Prairie CON - 73.15 CON, 16.55 LIB, 5.03 PPC, 3.47 OTH, 1.81 NDP
Lakeland CON - 73.53 CON, 17.24 LIB, 5.87 PPC, 1.84 OTH, 1.14 GRN, 0.37 NDP
Leduc--Wetaskiwin CON - 67.42 CON, 18.86 LIB, 7.51 NDP, 6.07 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Parkland CON - 67.26 CON, 18.46 LIB, 6.14 PPC, 6.11 NDP, 1.77 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Peace River--Westlock CON - 71.89 CON, 18.34 LIB, 6.02 OTH, 3.75 NDP
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan CON - 61.68 CON, 24.50 LIB, 10.50 NDP, 1.83 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.24 OTH
St. Albert--Sturgeon River CON - 60.30 CON, 23.48 LIB, 13.40 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 0.18 OTH
Edmonton (9 seats):
Edmonton Centre CON - 42.99 LIB, 36.10 CON, 19.88 NDP, 0.69 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Edmonton Gateway CON - 47.05 CON, 37.96 LIB, 10.51 NDP, 3.55 OTH, 0.93 PPC
Edmonton Greisbach NDP - 40.15 CON, 30.02 NDP, 27.27 LIB, 1.40 GRN, 0.74 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Edmonton Manning CON - 44.89 CON, 32.56 LIB, 20.70 NDP, 1.84 PPC
Edmonton Northwest CON - 46.50 CON, 34.76 LIB, 17.39 NDP, 1.06 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Edmonton Riverbend CON - 48.54 CON, 36.86 LIB, 13.97 NDP, 0.64 PPC
Edmonton Southeast CON - 45.78 LIB, 41.03 CON, 11.56 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.68 OTH
Edmonton Strathcona NDP - 46.89 NDP, 30.02 CON, 20.41 LIB, 1.51 GRN, 0.77 PPC, 0.39 OTH
Edmonton West CON - 49.02 CON, 35.98 LIB, 13.69 NDP, 0.91 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Calgary (11 seats):
Calgary Centre CON - 51.65 CON, 39.11 LIB, 6.29 NDP, 1.89 GRN, 0.71 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Calgary Confederation CON - 48.55 CON, 39.06 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 3.96 GRN, 0.64 PPC, 0.21 OTH
Calgary Crowfoot CON - 58.05 CON, 32.83 LIB, 6.03 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.89 PPC, 0.25 OTH
Calgary East CON - 56.75 CON, 30.50 LIB, 7.99 NDP, 2.93 GRN, 2.02 PPC, 0.34 OTH
Calgary Heritage CON - 64.10 CON, 27.91 LIB, 6.17 NDP, 1.73 GRN, 0.09 OTH
Calgary McKnight LIB - 54.59 LIB, 36.64 CON, 5.99 NDP, 1.39 GRN, 0.87 PPC, 0.51 OTH
Calgary Midnapore CON - 64.31 CON, 24.71 LIB, 8.45 NDP, 1.61 GRN, 0.91 PPC
Calgary Nose Hill CON - 59.16 CON, 32.07 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 1.87 GRN, 0.08 OTH
Calgary Shepard CON - 65.29 CON, 26.14 LIB, 5.88 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Calgary Signal Hill CON - 63.01 CON, 31.07 LIB, 4.76 NDP, 0.87 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Calgary Skyview CON - 47.43 CON, 45.42 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 0.32 OTH
Southern Alberta (9 seats):
Airdrie--Cochrane CON - 66.52 CON, 22.84 LIB, 5.46 NDP, 5.18 OTH
Battle River--Crowfoot CON - 76.08 CON, 17.08 LIB, 4.68 PPC, 1.73 GRN, 0.43 NDP
Bow River CON - 76.92 CON, 20.38 LIB, 2.34 OTH, 0.36 NDP
Foothills CON - 73.02 CON, 19.69 LIB, 3.50 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 1.74 NDP
Lethbridge CON - 59.78 CON, 27.42 LIB, 9.17 NDP, 1.77 PPC, 1.61 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner CON - 73.32 CON, 19.96 LIB, 4.41 NDP, 2.31 GRN
Ponoka--Didsbury CON - 73.54 CON, 9.06 OTH, 9.05 NDP, 8.34 PPC
Red Deer CON - 64.40 CON, 20.59 LIB, 7.39 NDP, 6.04 PPC, 1.32 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Yellowhead CON - 64.13 CON, 23.63 LIB, 5.32 NDP, 3.99 PPC, 2.93 OTH
British Columbia (43 seats)
BC Interior (10 seats):
Cariboo--Prince George CON - 57.34 CON, 29.94 LIB, 4.99 NDP, 4.97 PPC, 1.86 GRN, 0.89 OTH
Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies CON - 49.76 CON, 22.61 LIB, 21.33 NDP, 3.82 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies CON - 51.15 CON, 30.41 LIB, 9.94 NDP, 4.88 PPC, 3.62 GRN
Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola CON - 49.68 CON, 31.59 LIB, 13.56 NDP, 2.87 PPC, 2.30 GRN
Kelowna CON - 51.08 CON, 40.50 LIB, 6.56 NDP, 1.86 GRN
Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna CON - 54.47 CON, 37.05 LIB, 3.47 NDP, 3.45 PPC, 1.13 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies CON - 65.63 CON, 23.33 LIB, 7.45 PPC, 2.20 GRN, 1.39 NDP
Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay NDP - 43.80 CON, 27.13 LIB, 23.61 NDP, 3.66 PPC, 1.80 GRN
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP - 45.22 CON, 27.50 NDP, 21.53 LIB, 3.43 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee CON - 54.49 CON, 33.99 LIB, 7.26 NDP, 4.25 GRN
Fraser Valley--Southern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Abbotsford--South Langley CON - 32.90 CON, 31.65 LIB, 27.26 OTH, 3.73 PPC, 2.97 NDP, 1.50 GRN
Chilliwack--Hope CON - 51.92 CON, 30.98 LIB, 11.12 NDP, 4.36 PPC, 1.19 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Cloverdale--Langley City CON - 48.88 CON, 46.87 LIB, 2.93 NDP, 1.07 PPC, 0.26 GRN
Delta LIB - 56.32 LIB, 39.24 CON, 3.46 NDP, 0.98 PPC
Fleetwood--Port Kells LIB - 47.71 LIB, 45.89 CON, 5.05 NDP, 1.05 PPC, 0.30 GRN
Langley Township--Fraser Heights CON - 49.99 CON, 43.24 LIB, 4.28 NDP, 1.21 PPC, 0.81 GRN, 0.47 OTH
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford CON - 53.47 CON, 37.88 LIB, 3.75 PPC, 2.75 NDP, 2.14 GRN
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge CON - 43.12 CON, 37.90 LIB, 15.45 NDP, 2.24 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Richmond Centre--Marpole LIB - 51.65 LIB, 40.84 CON, 4.93 NDP, 1.50 GRN, 1.08 PPC
Richmond East--Steveston LIB - 55.63 LIB, 39.44 CON, 4.18 NDP, 0.75 GRN
South Surrey--White Rock CON - 51.32 LIB, 47.52 CON, 0.97 NDP, 0.18 GRN
Surrey Centre LIB - 44.27 LIB, 40.76 CON, 12.37 NDP, 1.09 PPC, 0.93 OTH, 0.59 GRN
Surrey--Newton LIB - 53.27 LIB, 34.98 CON, 10.14 NDP, 1.61 OTH
Vancouver--Northern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Burnaby Central (NDP Leader) NDP - 45.46 LIB, 28.24 CON, 25.14 NDP, 1.17 PPC
Burnaby North--Seymour LIB - 54.99 LIB, 32.44 CON, 11.67 NDP, 0.90 PPC
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam LIB - 51.23 LIB, 36.42 CON, 12.04 NDP, 0.23 OTH, 0.09 GRN
New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville NDP - 37.03 LIB, 32.83 NDP, 27.38 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.55 OTH
North Vancouver--Capilano LIB - 57.82 LIB, 34.93 CON, 3.48 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.08 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Port Moody--Coquitlam NDP - 42.86 LIB, 37.64 CON, 19.36 NDP, 0.07 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Vancouver Centre LIB - 53.99 LIB, 27.51 CON, 14.58 NDP, 2.18 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.65 OTH
Vancouver East NDP - 41.13 NDP, 33.49 LIB, 16.90 CON, 6.09 GRN, 1.27 OTH, 1.12 PPC
Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby LIB - 55.72 LIB, 27.55 CON, 15.58 NDP, 1.07 OTH 
Vancouver Granville LIB - 50.96 LIB, 29.99 CON, 17.87 NDP, 1.18 GRN
Vancouver Kingsway NDP - 42.39 LIB, 34.86 NDP, 19.75 CON, 2.00 GRN, 1.00 PPC
Vancouver Quadra LIB - 56.23 LIB, 34.40 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.05 NDP, 0.98 PPC
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country LIB - 46.58 LIB, 34.90 CON, 11.99 NDP, 5.24 GRN, 1.03 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Vancouver Island (7 seats):
Courtenay--Alberni NDP - 37.37 CON, 27.65 NDP, 27.35 LIB, 5.35 GRN, 1.70 PPC, 0.58 OTH
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford NDP - 36.68 CON, 30.45 LIB, 27.89 NDP, 4.98 GRN
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke NDP - 35.63 LIB, 28.14 NDP, 27.83 CON, 7.32 GRN, 1.08 OTH
Nanaimo--Ladysmith NDP - 32.62 CON, 26.96 LIB, 24.34 GRN, 14.27 NDP, 1.81 PPC
North Island--Powell River NDP - 42.30 CON, 27.07 LIB, 24.06 NDP, 4.26 GRN, 1.29 PPC, 1.02 OTH
Saanich--Gulf Islands (GRN co-Leader) GRN - 34.26 GRN, 32.71 LIB, 28.69 CON, 4.32 NDP
Victoria NDP - 40.99 LIB, 28.63 NDP, 19.72 CON, 9.57 GRN, 1.01 PPC, 0.07 OTH
Territories (3 seats)
Nunavut NDP - 51.71 LIB, 36.29 NDP, 12.01 CON
Northwest Territories LIB - 52.92 LIB, 24.59 NDP, 17.54 CON, 4.96 GRN
Yukon LIB - 50.32 LIB, 33.34 CON, 10.39 NDP, 5.95 GRN

Work In Progress - Full Projection to be posted soon!
As many of you know, I'm a political nerd and junky. As a public servant in RL I do not participate in electoral campaigns these days but in the 2010s I was involved in campaigns for the provincial and federal NDP in my local area. I've been doing election projections and forecasts since the late 2000s for pure personal amusement and to help my understanding on how a given race is going. Today, I'm happy to publish my forecast for the 2025 Canadian federal election, with the first results from Newfoundland and Labrador most likely being announced shortly after 7pm EDT Monday night, and then moving across the country throughout the night.
Polls close in each region in this general order:
Newfoundland - 8:30pm NDT, 8:00pm ADT, 7:00pm EDT, 6:00pm CDT, 5:00pm MDT, 4:00pm PDT
Atlantic - 9:00pm NDT, 8:30pm ADT, 7:30pm EDT, 6:30pm CDT, 5:30pm MDT, 4:30pm PDT
Quebec/Ontario - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Manitoba - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Saskatchewan/Alberta - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
British Columbia - 11:30pm NDT, 11:00pm ADT, 10:00pm EDT, 9:00pm CDT, 8:00pm MDT, 7:00pm PDT
Headline Polling Numbers
Due to how geographically diverse our country is, polling is often analyzed by the headline federal numbers for each party, but perhaps more importantly by the "regional" numbers. Although there are 10 provinces and 3 territories, standard polling practice is to poll the country based off of the following regions: Atlantic (which is Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick), Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), Alberta, and British Columbia. This is due to the lower populations in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces and resulting sample sizes. For the territories I group them in the following fashion: Nunavut's projection is tied in with the Prairies, Northwest Territories is with Alberta, and Yukon is with British Columbia. In the below section I'll show where polling has each party in each region and also noting the difference from what they scored in the 2021 election:
CANADA - Liberal Party of Canada LIB 42.50% (+9.88), Conservative Party of Canada CON 38.83% (+5.09), New Democratic Party of Canada NDP 8.63% (-9.19), Bloc Quebecois BLQ 6.00% (-1.64), Green Party of Canada GRN 2.00% (-0.33), People's Party of Canada PPC 1.23% (-3.70), Other Parties/Independents OTH 0.80% (-0.11)
Atlantic - LIB 54.87% (+11.27), CON 35.33% (+3.79), NDP 6.50% (-10.42), GRN 1.63% (-1.55), PPC 1.37% (-2.99), OTH 0.30% (-0.10)
Quebec - LIB 40.63% (+7.03), BLQ 25.87% (-6.26), CON 23.70% (+5.05), NDP 5.83% (-3.94), GRN 1.77% (+0.24), PPC 1.37% (-1.32), OTH 0.83% (-0.80)
Ontario - LIB 47.60% (+8.34), CON 39.87% (+5.00), NDP 8.20% (-9.65), GRN 2.03% (-0.19), PPC 1.43% (-4.02), OTH 0.87% (+0.52)
Prairies - CON 48.87% (+0.28), LIB 36.30% (+16.61), NDP 11.50% (-10.60), GRN 1.43% (+0.03), PPC 1.13% (-6.01),  OTH 0.77% (-0.32)
Alberta - CON 59.40% (+4.13), LIB 27.73% (+12.28), NDP 8.93% (-10.14), PPC 2.17% (-5.18), GRN 1.17% (+0.26), OTH 0.60% (-1.34)
British Columbia - LIB 40.73% (+13.73), CON 39.23% (+6.01), NDP 13.90% (-15.27), GRN 3.67% (-1.62), PPC 1.63% (-3.28), OTH 0.88% (+0.43)
There are a few events in play: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (running in Carleton, ON) has been running a populist conservative campaign which has removed the PPC from play on his right-flank, along with grabbing the attention of those who feel angry and/or left behind by the past 10 years of Liberal government. This is why he will probably receive the best popular vote that any centre-right politician has in the post-1993 modern Canadian system. The threat of Donald Trump (and how Poilievre looks Trump-lite) and the perceived competency of Liberal leader Mark Carney (running in Nepean, ON) in the face of Trump (or in general compared to Trudeau) has moved NDP, Green, and even a good number of Bloc Quebecois voters over to the Liberals. Trump absolutely scares us and any time he mentions "51st State" or announces a new round of tariff, we wrap our red-and-white maple leaf flag around us even harder. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh (running in Burnaby Centre, BC), Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (running in Beloeil--Chambly, QC) and Greens co-led by Elizabeth May (running in Saanich--Gulf Islands, BC) and Jonathan Pedneault (running in Outremont, QC) are all urging their supporters to keep supporting their parties to provide somewhat of a check on a Carney-led Liberal majority government, to apparent limited success. The critical issue of the campaign has been Canadian sovereignty/who can be the best to stand up for Canada against Trump, followed by affordability/cost of living which was the top issue before Trump returned and started to bully us. Before the election the other major issue, fatigue with Justin Trudeau, was removed from the equation when over the winter his party finally broke with him and he announced he would resign after a new leader was found, allowing Mark Carney (who has served as Governor of the Central Bank of Canada and then of England) to launch a very successful campaign to become the Liberal standard-bearer. The consumer-side of the Carbon Tax was also removed as a campaign issue (which was seen as an affordability/cost of living issue for many Canadians who hated high gas and other prices) for the most part when Carney became PM just before the campaign officially started and changed the taxation rate to 0%, effectively removing the consumer-side of the Carbon Tax while generally leaving the industrial-side of said tax. 
Headline Seat Numbers
Of course, the popular vote does not actually determine who forms government in Canada, it is the number of MPs a Prime Minister can count on to deliver confidence. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by roughly 1% over the Liberals, and yet because of how solid the Conservative vote is in rural Canada (particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural parts of BC, Manitoba and Ontario) and inefficient elsewhere, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau in both of those elections won a plurality of seats in the House and kept government, either working bill-by-bill with any opposition party who wanted to work with them (or more likely, abstain on the bill), or form a confidence and supply agreement as what happened between 2022 and 2024 with the Liberal government and the NDP. Based off of the map of ridings in the country, and where people are, it is common assumption that if the Conservatives want to form a minority government they need to have at least 2-3% above the Liberals, and would need 4%+ to get a majority depending on how the other parties do in their respective areas. And yet, here are the seat projections I get with the numbers today:
LIB - 188
CON - 126
BLQ - 21
NDP - 6
GRN - 2
PPC - 0
OTH - 0
How did I get these numbers? In the past election we had 338 ridings, in this one we have 343. Elections Canada and other sources provide good data on how to transpose the prior election onto the new boundaries, and from that data I use a regional-swing model (with some adjustments in seats for local conditions) to get the below seat projections. In the below section, I sort ridings into sub-regions, note beside the riding name which party current holds the seat, and then show the expected percentages for each party running in the seat. If it has this colour as with its name then that is a riding which is within 10 points margin between the first and second placed party and thus is what I figure is a "battleground" riding.
Atlantic Canada (32 seats)
Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats):
Avalon LIB - 61.15 LIB, 35.42 CON, 2.97 NDP, 0.46 OTH
Cape Spear LIB - 65.06 LIB, 22.38 CON, 11.97 NDP, 0.38 GRN, 0.22 OTH 
Central Newfoundland CON - 53.77 LIB, 45.63 CON, 0.61 NDP
Labrador LIB - 53.38 LIB, 33.96 CON, 12.65 NDP
Long Range Mountains LIB - 54.87 LIB, 42.78 CON, 1.34 PPC, 0.84 NDP, 0.17 OTH
St. John's East LIB - 55.48 LIB, 23.66 NDP, 20.33 CON, 0.31 GRN, 0.23 OTH
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas LIB - 57.02 LIB, 42.39 CON, 0.60 NDP
Prince Edward Island (4 seats):
Cardigan LIB - 60.90 LIB, 33.79 CON, 3.26 GRN, 0.73 NDP, 0.69 OTH, 0.62 PPC
Charlottetown LIB - 56.81 LIB, 33.70 CON, 8.05 GRN, 0.83 NDP, 0.62 PPC
Egmont LIB - 56.33 LIB, 35.02 CON, 7.96 GRN, 0.68 NDP
Malpeque LIB - 51.85 LIB, 35.71 CON, 11.14 GRN, 0.69 NDP, 0.61 PPC
Nova Scotia (11 seats):
Acadie--Annapolis CON - 54.22 CON, 41.04 LIB, 2.30 PPC, 2.25 NDP, 0.20 GRN
Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish LIB - 56.36 LIB, 38.51 CON, 3.73 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Central Nova LIB - 55.56 LIB, 36.78 CON, 5.65 NDP, 1.00 PPC, 0.43 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Cumberland--Colchester CON - 49.93 CON, 45.58 LIB, 2.02 NDP, 1.30 PPC, 1.16 GRN
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LIB - 62.49 LIB, 22.28 NDP, 6.83 CON, 6.74 PPC, 1.36 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Halifax LIB - 53.10 LIB, 29.55 NDP, 16.10 CON, 0.65 GRN, 0.60 PPC
Halifax West LIB - 58.42 LIB, 24.88 CON, 15.18 NDP, 0.93 GRN, 0.59 PPC
Kings--Hants LIB - 55.60 LIB, 33.97 CON, 8.49 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Sackville--Bedford--Preston LIB - 56.02 LIB, 28.63 CON, 14.35 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 GRN
South Shore--St. Margaret's CON - 49.73 LIB, 44.95 CON, 2.59 GRN, 2.14 OTH, 0.59 PPC
Sydney--Glace Bay LIB - 52.42 LIB, 37.70 CON, 9.15 NDP, 0.59 PPC, 0.14 OTH

New Brunswick (10 seats):
Acadie--Bathurst LIB - 77.15 LIB, 17.96 CON, 3.21 PPC, 1.69 NDP
Beausejour LIB - 66.84 LIB, 23.18 CON, 4.59 PPC, 4.15 GRN, 0.69 OTH, 0.55 NDP
Fredericton--Oromocto LIB - 48.70 LIB, 36.96 CON, 10.75 GRN, 2.73 NDP, 0.68 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Fundy Royal CON - 50.18 CON, 36.59 LIB, 5.65 PPC, 4.10 NDP, 3.48 GRN
Madawasaka--Restigouche LIB - 63.68 LIB, 31.22 CON, 4.59 PPC, 0.52 NDP
Miramichi--Grand Lake CON - 49.86 CON, 46.34 LIB, 3.21 GRN, 0.59 NDP
Moncton--Dieppe LIB - 61.57 LIB, 28.81 CON, 6.64 NDP, 2.97 GRN
Saint John--Kennebacasis LIB - 54.02 LIB, 41.44 CON, 2.82 NDP, GRN GRN, 0.28 OTH
Saint John--St. Croix CON - 54.13 CON, 39.42 LIB, 2.80 NDP, 2.68 GRN, 0.98 OTH
Tobique--Mactaquac CON - 56.91 CON, 34.01 LIB, 4.36 PPC, 3.53 GRN, 1.19 NDP

Quebec (78 seats)
Eastern Quebec (4 seats):
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Levis CON - 57.50 CON, 23.35 LIB, 16.83 BLQ, 1.99 NDP, 0.32 PPC
Cote-du-Sud--Riviere-du-Loup--Kataskomiq--Temiscouata CON - 49.78 CON, 25.92 LIB, 23.37 BLQ, 0.43 PPC, 0.24 GRN, 0.14 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Gaspesie--Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj BLQ - 46.97 LIB, 38.00 BLQ, 13.31 CON, 0.68 PPC, 0.59 OTH, 0.45 NDP
Rimouski--La Matapedia BLQ - 48.12 BLQ, 29.14 LIB, 16.25 CON, 3.75 OTH, 2.02 NDP, 0.73 PPC
Cote-Nord--Saguenay (5 seats):
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord CON - 45.05 CON, 27.44 BLQ, 24.87 LIB, 1.41 GRN, 0.77 NDP, 0.46 PPC
Cote-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan BLQ - 46.33 BLQ, 25.98 CON, 25.78 LIB, 1.49 OTH, 0.42 NDP
Jonquiere BLQ - 36.26 BLQ, 32.76 CON, 27.20 LIB, 1.94 GRN, 1.41 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Lac-Saint-Jean BLQ - 43.46 BLQ, 29.13 CON, 24.85 LIB, 1.84 GRN, 0.48 PPC, 0.24 NDP
Montmorency--Charlevoix BLQ - 38.86 CON, 30.75 BLQ, 27.36 LIB, 1.54 GRN, 0.81 NDP, 0.68 PPC
Quebec City (5 seats):
Beauport--Limoilou BLQ - 35.13 CON, 31.37 LIB, 24.49 BLQ, 5.80 NDP, 2.28 GRN, 0.54 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles CON - 50.00 CON, 27.38 LIB, 18.54 BLQ, 2.83 NDP, 0.88 PPC, 0.36 OTH
Louis-Hebert LIB - 45.70 LIB, 29.10 CON, 20.26 BLQ, 4.50 NDP, 0.43 PPC
Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk CON - 57.48 CON, 25.14 LIB, 14.10 BLQ, 2.26 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Quebec-Centre LIB - 46.39 LIB, 23.80 BLQ, 12.54 OTH, 10.57 NDP, 6.71 PPC
Central Quebec (8 seats):
Becancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnobak BLQ - 48.81 BLQ, 24.20 LIB, 22.13 CON, 2.05 GRN, 1.43 NDP, 1.37 PPC
Berthier--Maskinonge BLQ - 30.10 BLQ, 27.24 NDP, 22.87 LIB, 16.40 CON, 1.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN
Joliette--Manawan BLQ - 49.29 BLQ, 29.72 LIB, 16.05 CON, 2.63 GRN, 2.32 NDP
Montcalm BLQ - 47.71 BLQ, 28.59 LIB, 19.49 CON, 4.21 NDP
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier CON - 57.54 CON, 22.30 LIB, 17.63 BLQ, 1.25 PPC, 0.90 NDP, 0.37 GRN
Repentigny BLQ - 45.09 BLQ, 35.28 LIB, 13.91 CON, 3.63 NDP, 1.63 OTH, 0.47 PPC
Saint-Maurice--Champlain LIB - 49.48 LIB, 23.81 BLQ, 23.05 CON, 1.54 GRN, 1.12 NDP, 0.55 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Trois-Rivieres BLQ - 35.66 LIB, 34.40 CON, 23.23 BLQ, 4.11 NDP, 1.54 GRN, 0.59 PPC, 0.46 OTH
Eastern Townships (10 seats):
Beauce (PPC Leader) CON - 53.63 CON, 19.93 LIB, 17.08 PPC, 9.17 BLQ, 0.18 NDP
Brome--Missisquoi LIB - 42.25 LIB, 28.63 BLQ, 21.52 CON, 2.89 GRN, 2.55 NDP, 2.16 PPC
Compton--Stanstead LIB - 43.80 LIB, 24.32 BLQ, 22.57 CON, 3.65 NDP, 3.13 GRN, 2.53 PPC
Drummond BLQ - 41.04 BLQ, 26.57 LIB, 23.67 CON, 7.99 NDP, 0.72 PPC
Levis--Lotbiniere CON - 54.84 CON, 23.09 LIB, 16.78 BLQ, 4.14 NDP, 1.15 PPC
Megantic-L'Erable--Lotbiniere CON - 61.90 CON, 21.05 LIB, 13.36 BLQ, 2.20 PPC, 0.77 NDP, 0.72 OTH
Richmond--Arthabaska CON - 54.95 CON, 22.06 LIB, 18.50 BLQ, 2.28 PPC, 1.58 OTH, 0.63 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton BLQ - 41.35 BLQ, 29.88 LIB, 18.73 CON, 7.86 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.62 GRN
Shefford BLQ - 41.46 LIB, 36.01 BLQ, 17.58 CON, 2.52 NDP, 2.42 PPC
Sherbrooke LIB - 44.64 LIB, 22.85 BLQ, 17.95 CON, 10.12 NDP, 3.21 GRN, 1.22 PPC
Monteregie (11 seats):
Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntington BLQ - 42.24 BLQ, 34.42 LIB, 17.02 CON, 3.62 NDP, 2.21 PPC, 0.58 GRN
Beloeil--Chambly (BLQ Leader) BLQ - 47.72 BLQ, 31.51 LIB, 13.88 CON, 5.87 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Brossard--Saint-Lambert LIB - 61.19 LIB, 17.09 CON, 13.73 BLQ, 6.51 NDP, 1.19 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Chateauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville BLQ - 43.55 LIB, 30.50 BLQ, 17.41 CON, 4.03 NDP, 2.61 PPC, 1.90 GRN
La Prairie--Atateken BLQ - 41.44 LIB, 37.26 BLQ, 14.78 CON, 3.36 NDP, 1.19 GRN, 1.27 PPC
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne LIB - 48.24 LIB, 29.05 BLQ, 13.41 CON, 7.55 NDP, 1.61 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert BLQ - 46.46 LIB, 35.15 BLQ, 12.97 CON, 5.43 NDP
Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie BLQ - 40.95 LIB, 38.97 BLQ, 14.54 CON, 4.37 NDP, 0.78 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Vercheres BLQ - 48.14 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 14.01 CON, 4.00 NDP, 0.75 PPC
Saint-Jean BLQ - 40.01 BLQ, 35.42 LIB, 18.05 CON, 3.60 NDP, 2.64 GRN, 0.29 PPC
Vaudreuil LIB - 54.39 LIB, 21.34 CON, 14.44 BLQ, 6.71 NDP, 2.77 GRN, 0.35 PPC
Eastern Montreal (9 seats):
Ahuntsic--Cartierville LIB - 59.75 LIB, 16.45 BLQ, 14.04 CON, 9.23 NDP 0.54 OTH
Bourassa LIB - 67.98 LIB, 12.39 BLQ, 12.05 CON, 4.96 NDP, 2.33 PPC, 0.30 OTH
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est LIB - 45.45 LIB, 25.23 BLQ, 16.41 NDP, 10.39 CON, 2.28 GRN, 0.25 OTH
Honore-Mercier LIB - 66.71 LIB, 15.29 CON, 10.02 BLQ, 3.37 NDP, 2.86 PPC, 1.74 GRN
La Pointe-de-l'Ile BLQ - 40.43 BLQ, 39.41 LIB, 12.74 CON, 5.82 NDP, 1.31 OTH, 0.30 GRN
Laurier--Sainte-Marie LIB - 46.59 LIB, 26.40 NDP, 13.89 BLQ, 9.56 CON, 2.47 GRN, 0.65 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Papineau LIB - 58.47 LIB, 20.21 NDP, 10.10 CON, 8.91 BLQ, 1.29 OTH, 1.02 PPC
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie NDP - 44.41 NDP, 29.99 LIB, 14.90 BLQ, 8.14 CON, 2.57 GRN
Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel LIB - 75.80 LIB, 14.63 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.87 BLQ, 2.43 PPC
Western Montreal (9 seats):
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle LIB - 58.83 LIB, 16.53 CON, 9.45 BLQ, 9.19 NDP, 3.07 GRN, 2.87 PPC, 0.06 OTH
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB - 60.99 LIB, 21.65 CON, 9.36 NDP, 3.48 GRN, 2.88 BLQ, 1.64 PPC
LaSalle-Emard--Verdun BLQ - 44.10 LIB, 17.99 BLQ, 17.82 NDP, 14.25 CON, 2.77 GRN, 2.12 OTH, 0.94 PPC
Mount Royal LIB - 62.79 LIB, 27.58 CON, 6.26 NDP, 2.85 BLQ, 0.52 OTH
Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount LIB - 58.10 LIB, 17.38 CON, 13.31 NDP, 7.11 GRN, 2.90 BLQ, 1.10 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Outremont (GRN co-Leader) LIB - 51.37 LIB, 16.88 GRN, 12.89 CON, 9.69 NDP, 9.18 BLQ
Pierrefonds--Dollard LIB - 61.98 LIB, 24.75 CON, 7.70 NDP, 3.00 BLQ, 2.39 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Saint-Laurent  LIB - 65.45 LIB, 22.35 CON, 6.81 NDP, 3.12 BLQ, 1.83 PPC, 0.36 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Ville-Marie--Le-Sud-Ouest--Ile-des-Soeurs LIB - 58.50 LIB, 18.79 CON, 13.85 NDP, 5.58 BLQ, 2.98 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Laval (4 seats):
Alfred-Pellan LIB - 55.57 LIB, 20.63 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.89 NDP, 0.28 PPC
Laval-Les Iles LIB - 56.71 LIB, 25.52 CON, 13.06 BLQ, 4.70 NDP
Marc-Aurele-Fortin LIB - 51.63 LIB, 24.96 BLQ, 18.26 CON, 5.15 NDP
Vimy LIB - 57.30 LIB, 20.96 CON, 16.11 BLQ, 5.63 NDP
Laurentides--Outaouais--Northern Quebec (13 seats):
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BLQ - 34.47 LIB, 32.61 BLQ, 23.50 CON, 9.42 NDP
Abitibi--Temiscamingue BLQ - 44.48 BLQ, 31.82 LIB, 18.28 CON, 3.07 NDP, 2.37 OTH
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation LIB - 46.32 LIB, 26.59 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.53 PPC, 3.25 NDP, 0.69 GRN
Gatineau LIB - 57.73 LIB, 17.23 BLQ, 16.22 CON, 5.46 NDP, 2.72 PPC, 0.63 OTH
Hull--Aylmer LIB - 59.49 LIB, 15.84 CON, 9.82 BLQ, 8.81 NDP, 3.06 GRN, 2.33 PPC, 0.64 OTH
Laurentides--Labelle BLQ - 46.39 BLQ, 30.66 LIB, 15.76 CON, 2.87 GRN, 2.52 PPC, 1.80 NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut BLQ - 41.54 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 16.93 CON, 3.25 PPC, 3.18 NDP, 2.00 GRN
Mirabel BLQ - 39.60 BLQ, 31.75 LIB, 18.57 CON, 4.84 NDP, 2.66 PPC, 2.58 GRN
Pontiac-Kitigan Zibi LIB - 50.89 LIB, 26.48 CON, 8.88 BLQ, 7.43 NDP, 3.16 GRN, 3.15 PPC
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles BLQ - 42.37 LIB, 34.34 BLQ, 15.25 CON, 3.28 NDP, 2.06 GRN, 1.40 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Riviere-du-Nord BLQ - 46.07 BLQ, 30.43 LIB, 19.53 CON, 3.96 NDP
Terrebonne BLQ - 37.54 LIB, 36.38 BLQ, 16.72 CON, 3.92 NDP, 2.87 GRN, 2.56 PPC
Therese-De Blainville BLQ - 43.10 LIB, 34.80 BLQ, 16.31 CON, 4.35 NDP, 1.44 PPC
Ontario (122 seats)
Ottawa (8 seats):
Carleton (CON Leader) CON - 56.45 CON, 39.77 LIB, 1.93 GRN, 1.57 NDP, 0.28 OTH
Kanata LIB - 51.78 LIB, 40.50 CON, 5.16 NDP, 2.29 GRN, 0.27 OTH
Nepean (LIB Leader) LIB - 53.62 LIB, 37.71 CON, 6.54 NDP, 1.75 GRN, 0.38 PPC
Orleans LIB - 60.21 LIB, 32.95 CON, 4.83 NDP, 1.43 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Ottawa Centre LIB - 53.38 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 20.06 CON, 2.54 GRN, 0.90 OTH
Ottawa South LIB - 57.98 LIB, 31.22 CON, 8.31 NDP, 1.96 GRN, 0.53 OTH
Ottawa West--Nepean LIB - 53.81 LIB, 32.62 CON, 10.46 NDP, 2.70 GRN, 0.27 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester LIB - 57.33 LIB, 25.61 CON, 13.56 NDP, 2.86 GRN, 0.36 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Eastern Ontario (8 seats):
Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke CON - 56.99 CON, 27.82 LIB, 11.45 NDP, 1.88 OTH, 1.86 GRN
Bay of Quinte CON - 46.27 CON, 45.64 LIB, 5.85 NDP, 2.24 GRN
Hastings--Lenox and Addington--Tyendinaga CON - 51.08 CON, 43.15 LIB, 2.04 PPC, 1.98 GRN, 1.75 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB - 49.17 LIB, 29.26 CON, 19.22 NDP, 2.35 GRN
Lanark--Frontenac CON - 56.62 CON, 34.48 LIB, 5.99 NDP, 2.92 GRN
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON - 55.63 CON, 33.65 LIB, 5.40 NDP, 3.52 GRN, 1.81 PPC
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland LIB - 55.65 LIB, 37.35 CON, 2.38 PPC, 1.84 GRN, 1.64 OTH, 1.14 NDP
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry CON - 61.92 CON, 33.13 LIB, 2.27 GRN, 1.35 NDP, 1.33 OTH
Central Ontario (10 seats):
Barrie South--Innisfil CON - 52.78 CON, 37.29 LIB, 6.16 NDP, 3.77 PPC
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte CON - 52.85 CON, 38.82 LIB, 7.06 NDP, 1.13 OTH, 0.14 GRN
Bruce--Grey--Owen South CON - 54.18 CON, 33.58 LIB, 4.02 PPC, 3.94 NDP, 2.88 GRN, 1.42 OTH
Dufferin--Caledon CON - 54.15 CON, 36.78 LIB, 4.36 GRN, 3.15 PPC, 0.85 OTH, 0.71 NDP
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CON - 57.52 CON, 33.36 LIB, 5.91 NDP, 3.21 PPC
New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury CON - 52.77 CON, 38.88 LIB, 3.62 PPC, 3.53 NDP, 1.20 GRN
Northumberland--Clarke CON - 48.96 CON, 42.37 LIB, 4.30 NDP, 2.39 GRN, 1.46 PPC, 0.52 OTH
Peterborough CON - 44.18 CON, 43.17 LIB, 9.53 NDP, 2.04 GRN, 0.80 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Simcoe North CON - 47.11 CON, 39.21 LIB, 6.33 NDP, 3.64 PPC, 2.87 GRN, 0.84 OTH
Simcoe--Grey CON - 52.61 CON, 36.42 LIB, 4.17 GRN, 3.70 NDP, 3.09 PPC
Durham--York (15 seats):
Ajax LIB - 64.66 LIB, 28.42 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.17 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill LIB - 52.61 LIB, 46.62 CON, 0.31 NDP, 0.28 PPC, 0.19 GRN
Bowmanville--Oshawa North CON - 55.10 CON, 36.13 LIB, 5.82 NDP, 2.30 OTH, 0.65 GRN
King--Vaughan CON - 49.72 LIB, 48.58 CON, 1.08 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.27 NDP
Markham--Stouffville LIB - 58.83 LIB, 38.48 CON, 1.80 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.21 NDP
Markham--Thornhill LIB - 68.75 LIB, 29.63 CON, 1.05 NDP, 0.40 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Markham--Unionville LIB - 54.45 LIB, 42.82 CON, 2.42 GRN, 0.31 NDP
Newmarket--Aurora LIB - 53.09 LIB, 43.83 CON, 3.07 NDP
Oshawa CON - 47.15 CON, 31.84 LIB, 19.25 NDP, 1.75 GRN
Pickering--Brooklin LIB - 56.45 LIB, 38.98 CON, 3.81 NDP, 0.35 PPC, 0.34 OTH, 0.06 GRN
Richmond Hill South LIB - 55.82 LIB, 43.34 CON, 0.33 PPC, 0.26 NDP, 0.22 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Thornhill CON - 55.07 CON, 42.52 LIB, 1.47 GRN, 0.58 PPC, 0.37 NDP
Vaughan--Woodbridge LIB - 54.09 LIB, 44.38 CON, 1.36 PPC, 0.17 NDP
Whitby LIB - 53.49 LIB, 39.65 CON, 4.82 NDP, 1.45 GRN, 0.60 OTH
York--Durham CON - 57.18 CON, 36.74 LIB, 3.04 NDP, 2.50 PPC, 0.53 GRN
Suburban Toronto (13 seats):
Don Valley North LIB - 60.76 LIB, 36.90 CON, 1.61 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 NDP, 0.05 OTH
Etobicoke Centre LIB - 56.98 LIB, 41.36 CON, 1.66 NDP
Etobicoke North LIB - 67.26 LIB, 30.31 CON, 1.05 OTH, 0.95 NDP, 0.34 PPC, 0.09 GRN
Etobicoke--Lakeshore LIB - 56.09 LIB, 37.61 CON, 4.66 NDP, 1.26 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Humber River--Black Creek LIB - 69.37 LIB, 22.45 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 OTH
Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East LIB - 64.62 LIB, 30.51 CON, 4.40 NDP, 0.47 PPC
Scarborough North LIB - 75.60 LIB, 22.27 CON, 2.13 NDP
Scarborough Southwest LIB - 65.91 LIB, 25.07 CON, 6.39 NDP, 2.08 GRN, 0.34 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Scarborough--Agincourt LIB - 65.20 LIB, 33.59 CON, 1.21 NDP
Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park LIB - 69.55 LIB, 26.61 CON, 3.77 NDP, 0.08 GRN
Scarborough--Woburn LIB - 68.86 LIB, 26.75 CON, 3.42 NDP, 0.95 OTH, 0.03 GRN
Willowdale LIB - 60.26 LIB, 38.21 CON, 1.53 NDP
York Centre LIB - 55.81 LIB, 43.50 CON, 0.69 NDP
Central Toronto (11 seats):
Beaches--East York LIB - 64.64 LIB, 18.85 CON, 12.97 NDP, 2.51 GRN, 1.03 OTH
Davenport LIB - 51.94 LIB, 29.86 NDP, 15.32 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Don Valley West LIB - 64.93 LIB, 33.80 CON, 0.81 GRN, 0.34 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Eglinton--Lawrence LIB - 55.86 LIB, 40.69 CON, 2.84 GRN, 0.42 PPC, 0.19 NDP
Spadina--Harbourfront LIB - 45.32 LIB, 26.65 CON, 24.15 NDP, 3.05 GRN, 0.45 PPC, 0.38 OTH
Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park LIB - 51.05 LIB, 28.83 NDP, 17.71 CON, 1.67 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Toronto Centre LIB - 58.01 LIB, 17.25 CON, 16.26 NDP, 7.82 GRN, 0.39 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Toronto--Danforth LIB - 56.65 LIB, 23.93 NDP, 16.48 CON, 1.71 GRN, 1.21 OTH
Toronto--St. Paul's CON - 53.84 LIB, 37.12 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.16 NDP, 0.33 PPC, 0.21 OTH
University--Rosedale LIB - 54.90 LIB, 21.90 CON, 18.24 NDP, 4.24 GRN, 0.72 OTH
York South--Weston--Etobicoke LIB - 65.03 LIB, 28.53 CON, 6.45 NDP
Peel (12 seats):
Brampton Centre LIB - 56.49 LIB, 36.48 CON, 6.19 NDP, 0.50 PPC, 0.24 OTH, 0.10 GRN
Brampton East LIB - 60.70 LIB, 32.76 CON, 5.85 NDP, 0.46 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Brampton North--Caledon LIB - 58.54 LIB, 36.69 CON, 4.35 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Brampton South LIB - 61.75 LIB, 33.80 CON, 3.76 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Brampton West LIB - 64.61 LIB, 31.65 CON, 3.05 NDP, 0.63 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Brampton--Chinguacousy Park LIB - 57.72 LIB, 34.58 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.37 PPC, 0.08 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Mississauga Centre LIB - 62.68 LIB, 33.93 CON, 2.28 NDP, 0.91 OTH, 0.20 PPC
Mississauga East--Cooksville LIB - 58.62 LIB, 36.63 CON, 2.43 PPC, 1.39 OTH, 0.93 NDP
Mississauga--Erin Mills LIB - 59.13 LIB, 38.08 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.66 NDP, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH
Mississauga--Lakeshore LIB - 54.62 LIB, 42.49 CON, 2.32 GRN, 0.40 PPC, 0.12 NDP, 0.06 OTH
Mississauga--Malton LIB - 60.31 LIB, 34.45 CON, 4.79 NDP, 0.45 PPC
Mississauga--Streetsville LIB - 55.73 LIB, 39.42 CON, 2.48 NDP, 2.01 GRN, 0.37 PPC
Hamilton--Halton--Niagara (14 seats):
Burlington LIB - 54.08 LIB, 42.25 CON, 1.79 GRN, 1.21 NDP, 0.41 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Burlington North--Milton West LIB - 56.81 LIB, 41.97 CON, 0.91 NDP, 0.30 PPC
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North CON - 49.21 CON, 40.77 LIB, 4.94 NDP, 2.68 PPC, 2.40 GRN
Hamilton Centre NDP - 37.49 NDP, 34.94 LIB, 21.47 CON, 2.54 PPC, 2.48 GRN, 1.09 OTH
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek LIB - 48.42 LIB, 35.35 CON, 12.79 NDP, 3.45 PPC
Hamilton Mountain LIB - 43.53 LIB, 30.20 CON, 22.58 NDP, 2.26 PPC, 1.43 OTH
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas LIB - 52.63 LIB, 34.12 CON, 10.02 NDP, 2.41 GRN, 0.42 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Milton East--Halton Hills South LIB - 50.31 LIB, 46.05 CON, 2.37 GRN, 0.84 PPC, 0.31 NDP, 0.13 OTH
Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake CON - 43.56 LIB, 42.40 CON, 8.20 NDP, 3.55 PPC, 1.76 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara South CON - 41.27 LIB, 38.43 CON, 13.15 NDP, 4.92 PPC, 1.71 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara West CON - 49.17 CON, 40.25 LIB, 5.47 NDP, 3.06 PPC, 2.04 OTH
Oakville East LIB - 53.88 LIB, 43.86 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.33 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.16 NDP
Oakville West LIB - 55.16 LIB, 42.59 CON, 1.53 GRN, 0.37 PPC, 0.22 NDP, 0.12 OTH
St. Catharines LIB - 46.80 LIB, 37.48 CON, 12.33 NDP, 2.57 PPC, 0.82 OTH

Midwestern Ontario (12 seats):
Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations CON - 45.27 CON, 35.99 LIB, 10.52 NDP, 4.75 PPC, 2.46 GRN, 1.01 OTH
Cambridge LIB - 46.69 LIB, 41.28 CON, 7.56 NDP, 3.33 GRN, 1.15 OTH
Guelph LIB - 49.59 LIB, 28.42 CON, 12.48 NDP, 7.69 GRN, 1.18 OTH, 0.64 PPC
Haldimand--Norfolk CON - 52.39 CON, 35.86 LIB, 6.47 PPC, 3.64 NDP, 1.50 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Huron--Bruce CON - 58.16 CON, 34.61 LIB, 5.27 NDP, 1.85 OTH, 0.11 GRN
Kitchener Centre GRN - 33.14 GRN, 29.87 CON, 25.69 LIB, 7.85 NDP, 2.64 PPC, 0.80 OTH
Kitchener South--Hespeler LIB - 45.80 LIB, 40.54 CON, 6.62 NDP, 3.26 GRN, 2.72 PPC, 1.06 OTH
Kitchener--Conestoga LIB - 48.48 LIB, 43.25 CON, 4.72 NDP, 3.55 PPC
Oxford CON - 50.26 CON, 35.20 LIB, 5.65 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 2.84 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Perth--Wellington CON - 53.66 CON, 33.03 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 5.74 PPC
Waterloo LIB - 53.89 LIB, 32.38 CON, 9.48 NDP, 3.23 GRN, 0.52 OTH, 0.50 PPC
Wellington--Halton Hills North CON - 51.96 CON, 38.83 LIB, 4.64 GRN, 2.30 NDP, 2.27 PPC

Southwestern Ontario (10 seats):
Chatham-Kent--Leamington CON - 47.52 CON, 35.18 LIB, 10.81 PPC, 5.06 NDP, 1.43 GRN
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South CON - 54.70 CON, 28.97 LIB, 8.55 PPC, 7.78 NDP
Essex CON - 46.33 CON, 24.42 LIB, 22.78 NDP, 6.47 PPC
London Centre LIB - 46.00 LIB, 29.75 CON, 20.72 NDP, 1.77 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.67 OTH
London West LIB - 45.18 LIB, 39.88 CON, 13.27 NDP, 1.46 OTH, 0.21 GRN
London--Fanshawe NDP - 33.83 NDP, 31.51 LIB, 29.39 CON, 5.27 PPC
Middlesex--London CON - 50.91 CON, 35.39 LIB, 7.60 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN, 0.71 OTH
Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong CON - 51.79 CON, 28.19 LIB, 11.62 NDP, 7.01 PPC, 1.39 OTH
Windsor West NDP - 36.12 LIB, 34.59 NDP, 24.34 CON, 4.32 PPC, 0.61 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore LIB - 39.35 LIB, 31.94 CON, 20.60 NDP, 6.27 PPC, 1.02 GRN, 0.82 OTH
Northern Ontario (9 seats):
Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk NDP - 34.94 LIB, 30.21 CON, 26.43 NDP, 8.41 PPC
Kenora--Kiiwetinoong CON - 48.38 CON, 28.19 LIB, 19.32 NDP, 2.37 PPC, 1.21 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Nipissing--Timiskaming LIB - 45.14 LIB, 36.94 CON, 13.74 NDP, 3.95 PPC, 0.23 GRN
Parry Sound--Muskoka CON - 53.78 CON, 32.24 LIB, 9.97 NDP, 4.01 PPC
Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma CON - 41.59 CON, 40.73 LIB, 16.15 NDP, 1.04 OTH, 0.50 GRN
Sudbury LIB - 44.26 LIB, 33.15 CON, 20.29 NDP, 2.30 PPC
Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt LIB - 40.22 LIB, 31.96 CON, 20.68 NDP, 4.94 PPC, 1.54 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LIB - 42.71 LIB, 34.39 CON, 18.90 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 1.35 GRN
Thunder Bay--Superior North LIB - 48.93 LIB, 29.00 CON, 18.30 NDP, 2.03 PPC, 1.74 GRN
Prairies (28 seats)
Rural Manitoba (6 seats):
Brandon--Souris CON - 61.52 CON, 28.70 LIB, 9.78 NDP
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP - 42.44 LIB, 32.82 NDP, 24.62 CON, 0.12 PPC
Portage--Lisgar CON - 57.93 CON, 26.67 LIB, 14.01 PPC, 1.10 GRN, 0.28 NDP
Provencher CON - 49.11 CON, 33.63 LIB, 12.02 PPC, 3.11 GRN, 2.13 NDP
Riding Mountain CON - 59.58 CON, 29.52 LIB, 4.62 PPC, 4.03 NDP, 2.25 GRN
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman CON - 57.09 CON, 29.72 LIB, 8.71 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.50 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Winnipeg (8 seats):
Elmwood--Transcona NDP - 37.38 NDP, 34.56 CON, 26.81 LIB, 0.99 GRN, 0.26 PPC
Kildonan--St. Paul CON - 44.38 LIB, 42.40 CON, 13.04 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital LIB - 60.62 LIB, 28.33 CON, 10.87 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Winnipeg Centre NDP - 45.28 LIB, 38.92 NDP, 12.82 CON, 2.43 GRN, 0.38 OTH, 0.16 PPC
Winnipeg North LIB - 69.19 LIB, 16.06 NDP, 12.88 CON, 1.24 GRN, 0.32 PPC, 0.31 OTH
Winnipeg South LIB - 63.34 LIB, 31.27 CON, 3.77 NDP, 1.52 GRN, 0.09 PPC
Winnipeg South Centre LIB - 63.69 LIB, 25.09 CON, 8.05 NDP, 2.71 GRN, 0.33 OTH, 0.13 PPC 
Winnipeg West CON - 55.22 LIB, 38.73 CON, 4.07 NDP, 1.98 GRN
Southern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan CON - 61.47 CON, 22.95 LIB, 8.69 NDP, 5.55 PPC, 1.33 GRN
Regina--Lewvan CON - 45.49 CON, 29.89 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 1.27 GRN, 0.23 PPC 
Regina--Qu'Appelle CON - 60.11 CON, 27.07 LIB, 12.58 NDP, 0.24 PPC
Regina--Wascana CON - 48.73 CON, 42.07 LIB, 7.48 NDP, 1.65 GRN, 0.08 PPC
Souris--Moose Mountain CON - 78.43 CON, 20.92 LIB, 0.22 NDP, 0.22 GRN, 0.21 OTH
Swift Current-Grasslands--Kindersley CON - 73.88 CON, 21.05 LIB, 4.96 OTH, 0.11 NDP
Yorkton--Melville CON - 71.19 CON, 23.04 LIB, 2.20 OTH, 1.88 GRN, 1.69 NDP
Northern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake CON - 66.62 CON, 24.30 LIB, 5.28 OTH, 3.81 NDP
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek CON - 71.71 CON, 23.44 LIB, 4.85 NDP
Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River LIB - 59.04 LIB, 26.12 CON, 14.83 NDP
Prince Albert CON - 65.18 CON, 29.29 LIB, 5.53 NDP
Saskatoon South CON - 48.71 CON, 30.39 LIB, 19.53 NDP, 1.26 GRN, 0.10 PPC
Saskatoon West CON - 45.54 CON, 28.60 NDP, 24.70 LIB, 1.08 GRN, 0.07 PPC
Saskatoon--University CON - 46.98 CON, 27.43 LIB, 24.68 NDP, 0.91 GRN
Alberta (37 seats)
Northern Alberta (8 seats):
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CON - 71.57 CON, 19.24 LIB, 7.52 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.22 NDP, 0.20 OTH
Grande Prairie CON - 73.15 CON, 16.55 LIB, 5.03 PPC, 3.47 OTH, 1.81 NDP
Lakeland CON - 73.53 CON, 17.24 LIB, 5.87 PPC, 1.84 OTH, 1.14 GRN, 0.37 NDP
Leduc--Wetaskiwin CON - 67.42 CON, 18.86 LIB, 7.51 NDP, 6.07 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Parkland CON - 67.26 CON, 18.46 LIB, 6.14 PPC, 6.11 NDP, 1.77 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Peace River--Westlock CON - 71.89 CON, 18.34 LIB, 6.02 OTH, 3.75 NDP
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan CON - 61.68 CON, 24.50 LIB, 10.50 NDP, 1.83 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.24 OTH
St. Albert--Sturgeon River CON - 60.30 CON, 23.48 LIB, 13.40 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 0.18 OTH
Edmonton (9 seats):
Edmonton Centre CON - 42.99 LIB, 36.10 CON, 19.88 NDP, 0.69 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Edmonton Gateway CON - 47.05 CON, 37.96 LIB, 10.51 NDP, 3.55 OTH, 0.93 PPC
Edmonton Greisbach NDP - 40.15 CON, 30.02 NDP, 27.27 LIB, 1.40 GRN, 0.74 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Edmonton Manning CON - 44.89 CON, 32.56 LIB, 20.70 NDP, 1.84 PPC
Edmonton Northwest CON - 46.50 CON, 34.76 LIB, 17.39 NDP, 1.06 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Edmonton Riverbend CON - 48.54 CON, 36.86 LIB, 13.97 NDP, 0.64 PPC
Edmonton Southeast CON - 45.78 LIB, 41.03 CON, 11.56 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.68 OTH
Edmonton Strathcona NDP - 46.89 NDP, 30.02 CON, 20.41 LIB, 1.51 GRN, 0.77 PPC, 0.39 OTH
Edmonton West CON - 49.02 CON, 35.98 LIB, 13.69 NDP, 0.91 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Calgary (11 seats):
Calgary Centre CON - 51.65 CON, 39.11 LIB, 6.29 NDP, 1.89 GRN, 0.71 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Calgary Confederation CON - 48.55 CON, 39.06 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 3.96 GRN, 0.64 PPC, 0.21 OTH
Calgary Crowfoot CON - 58.05 CON, 32.83 LIB, 6.03 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.89 PPC, 0.25 OTH
Calgary East CON - 56.75 CON, 30.50 LIB, 7.99 NDP, 2.93 GRN, 2.02 PPC, 0.34 OTH
Calgary Heritage CON - 64.10 CON, 27.91 LIB, 6.17 NDP, 1.73 GRN, 0.09 OTH
Calgary McKnight LIB - 54.59 LIB, 36.64 CON, 5.99 NDP, 1.39 GRN, 0.87 PPC, 0.51 OTH
Calgary Midnapore CON - 64.31 CON, 24.71 LIB, 8.45 NDP, 1.61 GRN, 0.91 PPC
Calgary Nose Hill CON - 59.16 CON, 32.07 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 1.87 GRN, 0.08 OTH
Calgary Shepard CON - 65.29 CON, 26.14 LIB, 5.88 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Calgary Signal Hill CON - 63.01 CON, 31.07 LIB, 4.76 NDP, 0.87 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Calgary Skyview CON - 47.43 CON, 45.42 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 0.32 OTH
Southern Alberta (9 seats):
Airdrie--Cochrane CON - 66.52 CON, 22.84 LIB, 5.46 NDP, 5.18 OTH
Battle River--Crowfoot CON - 76.08 CON, 17.08 LIB, 4.68 PPC, 1.73 GRN, 0.43 NDP
Bow River CON - 76.92 CON, 20.38 LIB, 2.34 OTH, 0.36 NDP
Foothills CON - 73.02 CON, 19.69 LIB, 3.50 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 1.74 NDP
Lethbridge CON - 59.78 CON, 27.42 LIB, 9.17 NDP, 1.77 PPC, 1.61 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner CON - 73.32 CON, 19.96 LIB, 4.41 NDP, 2.31 GRN
Ponoka--Didsbury CON - 73.54 CON, 9.06 OTH, 9.05 NDP, 8.34 PPC
Red Deer CON - 64.40 CON, 20.59 LIB, 7.39 NDP, 6.04 PPC, 1.32 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Yellowhead CON - 64.13 CON, 23.63 LIB, 5.32 NDP, 3.99 PPC, 2.93 OTH
British Columbia (43 seats)
BC Interior (10 seats):
Cariboo--Prince George CON - 57.34 CON, 29.94 LIB, 4.99 NDP, 4.97 PPC, 1.86 GRN, 0.89 OTH
Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies CON - 49.76 CON, 22.61 LIB, 21.33 NDP, 3.82 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies CON - 51.15 CON, 30.41 LIB, 9.94 NDP, 4.88 PPC, 3.62 GRN
Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola CON - 49.68 CON, 31.59 LIB, 13.56 NDP, 2.87 PPC, 2.30 GRN
Kelowna CON - 51.08 CON, 40.50 LIB, 6.56 NDP, 1.86 GRN
Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna CON - 54.47 CON, 37.05 LIB, 3.47 NDP, 3.45 PPC, 1.13 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies CON - 65.63 CON, 23.33 LIB, 7.45 PPC, 2.20 GRN, 1.39 NDP
Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay NDP - 43.80 CON, 27.13 LIB, 23.61 NDP, 3.66 PPC, 1.80 GRN
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP - 45.22 CON, 27.50 NDP, 21.53 LIB, 3.43 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee CON - 54.49 CON, 33.99 LIB, 7.26 NDP, 4.25 GRN
Fraser Valley--Southern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Abbotsford--South Langley CON - 32.90 CON, 31.65 LIB, 27.26 OTH, 3.73 PPC, 2.97 NDP, 1.50 GRN
Chilliwack--Hope CON - 51.92 CON, 30.98 LIB, 11.12 NDP, 4.36 PPC, 1.19 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Cloverdale--Langley City CON - 48.88 CON, 46.87 LIB, 2.93 NDP, 1.07 PPC, 0.26 GRN
Delta LIB - 56.32 LIB, 39.24 CON, 3.46 NDP, 0.98 PPC
Fleetwood--Port Kells LIB - 47.71 LIB, 45.89 CON, 5.05 NDP, 1.05 PPC, 0.30 GRN
Langley Township--Fraser Heights CON - 49.99 CON, 43.24 LIB, 4.28 NDP, 1.21 PPC, 0.81 GRN, 0.47 OTH
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford CON - 53.47 CON, 37.88 LIB, 3.75 PPC, 2.75 NDP, 2.14 GRN
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge CON - 43.12 CON, 37.90 LIB, 15.45 NDP, 2.24 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Richmond Centre--Marpole LIB - 51.65 LIB, 40.84 CON, 4.93 NDP, 1.50 GRN, 1.08 PPC
Richmond East--Steveston LIB - 55.63 LIB, 39.44 CON, 4.18 NDP, 0.75 GRN
South Surrey--White Rock CON - 51.32 LIB, 47.52 CON, 0.97 NDP, 0.18 GRN
Surrey Centre LIB - 44.27 LIB, 40.76 CON, 12.37 NDP, 1.09 PPC, 0.93 OTH, 0.59 GRN
Surrey--Newton LIB - 53.27 LIB, 34.98 CON, 10.14 NDP, 1.61 OTH
Vancouver--Northern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Burnaby Central (NDP Leader) NDP - 45.46 LIB, 28.24 CON, 25.14 NDP, 1.17 PPC
Burnaby North--Seymour LIB - 54.99 LIB, 32.44 CON, 11.67 NDP, 0.90 PPC
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam LIB - 51.23 LIB, 36.42 CON, 12.04 NDP, 0.23 OTH, 0.09 GRN
New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville NDP - 37.03 LIB, 32.83 NDP, 27.38 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.55 OTH
North Vancouver--Capilano LIB - 57.82 LIB, 34.93 CON, 3.48 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.08 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Port Moody--Coquitlam NDP - 42.86 LIB, 37.64 CON, 19.36 NDP, 0.07 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Vancouver Centre LIB - 53.99 LIB, 27.51 CON, 14.58 NDP, 2.18 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.65 OTH
Vancouver East NDP - 41.13 NDP, 33.49 LIB, 16.90 CON, 6.09 GRN, 1.27 OTH, 1.12 PPC
Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby LIB - 55.72 LIB, 27.55 CON, 15.58 NDP, 1.07 OTH 
Vancouver Granville LIB - 50.96 LIB, 29.99 CON, 17.87 NDP, 1.18 GRN
Vancouver Kingsway NDP - 42.39 LIB, 34.86 NDP, 19.75 CON, 2.00 GRN, 1.00 PPC
Vancouver Quadra LIB - 56.23 LIB, 34.40 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.05 NDP, 0.98 PPC
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country LIB - 46.58 LIB, 34.90 CON, 11.99 NDP, 5.24 GRN, 1.03 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Vancouver Island (7 seats):
Courtenay--Alberni NDP - 37.37 CON, 27.65 NDP, 27.35 LIB, 5.35 GRN, 1.70 PPC, 0.58 OTH
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford NDP - 36.68 CON, 30.45 LIB, 27.89 NDP, 4.98 GRN
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke NDP - 35.63 LIB, 28.14 NDP, 27.83 CON, 7.32 GRN, 1.08 OTH
Nanaimo--Ladysmith NDP - 32.62 CON, 26.96 LIB, 24.34 GRN, 14.27 NDP, 1.81 PPC
North Island--Powell River NDP - 42.30 CON, 27.07 LIB, 24.06 NDP, 4.26 GRN, 1.29 PPC, 1.02 OTH
Saanich--Gulf Islands (GRN co-Leader) GRN - 34.26 GRN, 32.71 LIB, 28.69 CON, 4.32 NDP
Victoria NDP - 40.99 LIB, 28.63 NDP, 19.72 CON, 9.57 GRN, 1.01 PPC, 0.07 OTH
Territories (3 seats)
Nunavut NDP - 51.71 LIB, 36.29 NDP, 12.01 CON
Northwest Territories LIB - 52.92 LIB, 24.59 NDP, 17.54 CON, 4.96 GRN
Yukon LIB - 50.32 LIB, 33.34 CON, 10.39 NDP, 5.95 GRN

Work In Progress - Full Projection to be posted soon!
As many of you know, I'm a political nerd and junky. As a public servant in RL I do not participate in electoral campaigns these days but in the 2010s I was involved in campaigns for the provincial and federal NDP in my local area. I've been doing election projections and forecasts since the late 2000s for pure personal amusement and to help my understanding on how a given race is going. Today, I'm happy to publish my forecast for the 2025 Canadian federal election, with the first results from Newfoundland and Labrador most likely being announced shortly after 7pm EDT Monday night, and then moving across the country throughout the night.
Polls close in each region in this general order:
Newfoundland - 8:30pm NDT, 8:00pm ADT, 7:00pm EDT, 6:00pm CDT, 5:00pm MDT, 4:00pm PDT
Atlantic - 9:00pm NDT, 8:30pm ADT, 7:30pm EDT, 6:30pm CDT, 5:30pm MDT, 4:30pm PDT
Quebec/Ontario - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Manitoba - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Saskatchewan/Alberta - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
British Columbia - 11:30pm NDT, 11:00pm ADT, 10:00pm EDT, 9:00pm CDT, 8:00pm MDT, 7:00pm PDT
Headline Polling Numbers
Due to how geographically diverse our country is, polling is often analyzed by the headline federal numbers for each party, but perhaps more importantly by the "regional" numbers. Although there are 10 provinces and 3 territories, standard polling practice is to poll the country based off of the following regions: Atlantic (which is Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick), Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), Alberta, and British Columbia. This is due to the lower populations in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces and resulting sample sizes. For the territories I group them in the following fashion: Nunavut's projection is tied in with the Prairies, Northwest Territories is with Alberta, and Yukon is with British Columbia. In the below section I'll show where polling has each party in each region and also noting the difference from what they scored in the 2021 election:
CANADA - Liberal Party of Canada LIB 42.50% (+9.88), Conservative Party of Canada CON 38.83% (+5.09), New Democratic Party of Canada NDP 8.63% (-9.19), Bloc Quebecois BLQ 6.00% (-1.64), Green Party of Canada GRN 2.00% (-0.33), People's Party of Canada PPC 1.23% (-3.70), Other Parties/Independents OTH 0.80% (-0.11)
Atlantic - LIB 54.87% (+11.27), CON 35.33% (+3.79), NDP 6.50% (-10.42), GRN 1.63% (-1.55), PPC 1.37% (-2.99), OTH 0.30% (-0.10)
Quebec - LIB 40.63% (+7.03), BLQ 25.87% (-6.26), CON 23.70% (+5.05), NDP 5.83% (-3.94), GRN 1.77% (+0.24), PPC 1.37% (-1.32), OTH 0.83% (-0.80)
Ontario - LIB 47.60% (+8.34), CON 39.87% (+5.00), NDP 8.20% (-9.65), GRN 2.03% (-0.19), PPC 1.43% (-4.02), OTH 0.87% (+0.52)
Prairies - CON 48.87% (+0.28), LIB 36.30% (+16.61), NDP 11.50% (-10.60), GRN 1.43% (+0.03), PPC 1.13% (-6.01),  OTH 0.77% (-0.32)
Alberta - CON 59.40% (+4.13), LIB 27.73% (+12.28), NDP 8.93% (-10.14), PPC 2.17% (-5.18), GRN 1.17% (+0.26), OTH 0.60% (-1.34)
British Columbia - LIB 40.73% (+13.73), CON 39.23% (+6.01), NDP 13.90% (-15.27), GRN 3.67% (-1.62), PPC 1.63% (-3.28), OTH 0.88% (+0.43)
There are a few events in play: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (running in Carleton, ON) has been running a populist conservative campaign which has removed the PPC from play on his right-flank, along with grabbing the attention of those who feel angry and/or left behind by the past 10 years of Liberal government. This is why he will probably receive the best popular vote that any centre-right politician has in the post-1993 modern Canadian system. The threat of Donald Trump (and how Poilievre looks Trump-lite) and the perceived competency of Liberal leader Mark Carney (running in Nepean, ON) in the face of Trump (or in general compared to Trudeau) has moved NDP, Green, and even a good number of Bloc Quebecois voters over to the Liberals. Trump absolutely scares us and any time he mentions "51st State" or announces a new round of tariff, we wrap our red-and-white maple leaf flag around us even harder. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh (running in Burnaby Centre, BC), Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (running in Beloeil--Chambly, QC) and Greens co-led by Elizabeth May (running in Saanich--Gulf Islands, BC) and Jonathan Pedneault (running in Outremont, QC) are all urging their supporters to keep supporting their parties to provide somewhat of a check on a Carney-led Liberal majority government, to apparent limited success. The critical issue of the campaign has been Canadian sovereignty/who can be the best to stand up for Canada against Trump, followed by affordability/cost of living which was the top issue before Trump returned and started to bully us. Before the election the other major issue, fatigue with Justin Trudeau, was removed from the equation when over the winter his party finally broke with him and he announced he would resign after a new leader was found, allowing Mark Carney (who has served as Governor of the Central Bank of Canada and then of England) to launch a very successful campaign to become the Liberal standard-bearer. The consumer-side of the Carbon Tax was also removed as a campaign issue (which was seen as an affordability/cost of living issue for many Canadians who hated high gas and other prices) for the most part when Carney became PM just before the campaign officially started and changed the taxation rate to 0%, effectively removing the consumer-side of the Carbon Tax while generally leaving the industrial-side of said tax. 
Headline Seat Numbers
Of course, the popular vote does not actually determine who forms government in Canada, it is the number of MPs a Prime Minister can count on to deliver confidence. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by roughly 1% over the Liberals, and yet because of how solid the Conservative vote is in rural Canada (particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural parts of BC, Manitoba and Ontario) and inefficient elsewhere, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau in both of those elections won a plurality of seats in the House and kept government, either working bill-by-bill with any opposition party who wanted to work with them (or more likely, abstain on the bill), or form a confidence and supply agreement as what happened between 2022 and 2024 with the Liberal government and the NDP. Based off of the map of ridings in the country, and where people are, it is common assumption that if the Conservatives want to form a minority government they need to have at least 2-3% above the Liberals, and would need 4%+ to get a majority depending on how the other parties do in their respective areas. And yet, here are the seat projections I get with the numbers today:
LIB - 188
CON - 126
BLQ - 21
NDP - 6
GRN - 2
PPC - 0
OTH - 0
How did I get these numbers? In the past election we had 338 ridings, in this one we have 343. Elections Canada and other sources provide good data on how to transpose the prior election onto the new boundaries, and from that data I use a regional-swing model (with some adjustments in seats for local conditions) to get the below seat projections. In the below section, I sort ridings into sub-regions, note beside the riding name which party current holds the seat, and then show the expected percentages for each party running in the seat. If it has this colour as with its name then that is a riding which is within 10 points margin between the first and second placed party and thus is what I figure is a "battleground" riding.
Atlantic Canada (32 seats)
Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats):
Avalon LIB - 61.15 LIB, 35.42 CON, 2.97 NDP, 0.46 OTH
Cape Spear LIB - 65.06 LIB, 22.38 CON, 11.97 NDP, 0.38 GRN, 0.22 OTH 
Central Newfoundland CON - 53.77 LIB, 45.63 CON, 0.61 NDP
Labrador LIB - 53.38 LIB, 33.96 CON, 12.65 NDP
Long Range Mountains LIB - 54.87 LIB, 42.78 CON, 1.34 PPC, 0.84 NDP, 0.17 OTH
St. John's East LIB - 55.48 LIB, 23.66 NDP, 20.33 CON, 0.31 GRN, 0.23 OTH
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas LIB - 57.02 LIB, 42.39 CON, 0.60 NDP
Prince Edward Island (4 seats):
Cardigan LIB - 60.90 LIB, 33.79 CON, 3.26 GRN, 0.73 NDP, 0.69 OTH, 0.62 PPC
Charlottetown LIB - 56.81 LIB, 33.70 CON, 8.05 GRN, 0.83 NDP, 0.62 PPC
Egmont LIB - 56.33 LIB, 35.02 CON, 7.96 GRN, 0.68 NDP
Malpeque LIB - 51.85 LIB, 35.71 CON, 11.14 GRN, 0.69 NDP, 0.61 PPC
Nova Scotia (11 seats):
Acadie--Annapolis CON - 54.22 CON, 41.04 LIB, 2.30 PPC, 2.25 NDP, 0.20 GRN
Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish LIB - 56.36 LIB, 38.51 CON, 3.73 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Central Nova LIB - 55.56 LIB, 36.78 CON, 5.65 NDP, 1.00 PPC, 0.43 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Cumberland--Colchester CON - 49.93 CON, 45.58 LIB, 2.02 NDP, 1.30 PPC, 1.16 GRN
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LIB - 62.49 LIB, 22.28 NDP, 6.83 CON, 6.74 PPC, 1.36 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Halifax LIB - 53.10 LIB, 29.55 NDP, 16.10 CON, 0.65 GRN, 0.60 PPC
Halifax West LIB - 58.42 LIB, 24.88 CON, 15.18 NDP, 0.93 GRN, 0.59 PPC
Kings--Hants LIB - 55.60 LIB, 33.97 CON, 8.49 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Sackville--Bedford--Preston LIB - 56.02 LIB, 28.63 CON, 14.35 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 GRN
South Shore--St. Margaret's CON - 49.73 LIB, 44.95 CON, 2.59 GRN, 2.14 OTH, 0.59 PPC
Sydney--Glace Bay LIB - 52.42 LIB, 37.70 CON, 9.15 NDP, 0.59 PPC, 0.14 OTH

New Brunswick (10 seats):
Acadie--Bathurst LIB - 77.15 LIB, 17.96 CON, 3.21 PPC, 1.69 NDP
Beausejour LIB - 66.84 LIB, 23.18 CON, 4.59 PPC, 4.15 GRN, 0.69 OTH, 0.55 NDP
Fredericton--Oromocto LIB - 48.70 LIB, 36.96 CON, 10.75 GRN, 2.73 NDP, 0.68 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Fundy Royal CON - 50.18 CON, 36.59 LIB, 5.65 PPC, 4.10 NDP, 3.48 GRN
Madawasaka--Restigouche LIB - 63.68 LIB, 31.22 CON, 4.59 PPC, 0.52 NDP
Miramichi--Grand Lake CON - 49.86 CON, 46.34 LIB, 3.21 GRN, 0.59 NDP
Moncton--Dieppe LIB - 61.57 LIB, 28.81 CON, 6.64 NDP, 2.97 GRN
Saint John--Kennebacasis LIB - 54.02 LIB, 41.44 CON, 2.82 NDP, GRN GRN, 0.28 OTH
Saint John--St. Croix CON - 54.13 CON, 39.42 LIB, 2.80 NDP, 2.68 GRN, 0.98 OTH
Tobique--Mactaquac CON - 56.91 CON, 34.01 LIB, 4.36 PPC, 3.53 GRN, 1.19 NDP

Quebec (78 seats)
Eastern Quebec (4 seats):
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Levis CON - 57.50 CON, 23.35 LIB, 16.83 BLQ, 1.99 NDP, 0.32 PPC
Cote-du-Sud--Riviere-du-Loup--Kataskomiq--Temiscouata CON - 49.78 CON, 25.92 LIB, 23.37 BLQ, 0.43 PPC, 0.24 GRN, 0.14 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Gaspesie--Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj BLQ - 46.97 LIB, 38.00 BLQ, 13.31 CON, 0.68 PPC, 0.59 OTH, 0.45 NDP
Rimouski--La Matapedia BLQ - 48.12 BLQ, 29.14 LIB, 16.25 CON, 3.75 OTH, 2.02 NDP, 0.73 PPC
Cote-Nord--Saguenay (5 seats):
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord CON - 45.05 CON, 27.44 BLQ, 24.87 LIB, 1.41 GRN, 0.77 NDP, 0.46 PPC
Cote-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan BLQ - 46.33 BLQ, 25.98 CON, 25.78 LIB, 1.49 OTH, 0.42 NDP
Jonquiere BLQ - 36.26 BLQ, 32.76 CON, 27.20 LIB, 1.94 GRN, 1.41 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Lac-Saint-Jean BLQ - 43.46 BLQ, 29.13 CON, 24.85 LIB, 1.84 GRN, 0.48 PPC, 0.24 NDP
Montmorency--Charlevoix BLQ - 38.86 CON, 30.75 BLQ, 27.36 LIB, 1.54 GRN, 0.81 NDP, 0.68 PPC
Quebec City (5 seats):
Beauport--Limoilou BLQ - 35.13 CON, 31.37 LIB, 24.49 BLQ, 5.80 NDP, 2.28 GRN, 0.54 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles CON - 50.00 CON, 27.38 LIB, 18.54 BLQ, 2.83 NDP, 0.88 PPC, 0.36 OTH
Louis-Hebert LIB - 45.70 LIB, 29.10 CON, 20.26 BLQ, 4.50 NDP, 0.43 PPC
Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk CON - 57.48 CON, 25.14 LIB, 14.10 BLQ, 2.26 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Quebec-Centre LIB - 46.39 LIB, 23.80 BLQ, 12.54 OTH, 10.57 NDP, 6.71 PPC
Central Quebec (8 seats):
Becancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnobak BLQ - 48.81 BLQ, 24.20 LIB, 22.13 CON, 2.05 GRN, 1.43 NDP, 1.37 PPC
Berthier--Maskinonge BLQ - 30.10 BLQ, 27.24 NDP, 22.87 LIB, 16.40 CON, 1.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN
Joliette--Manawan BLQ - 49.29 BLQ, 29.72 LIB, 16.05 CON, 2.63 GRN, 2.32 NDP
Montcalm BLQ - 47.71 BLQ, 28.59 LIB, 19.49 CON, 4.21 NDP
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier CON - 57.54 CON, 22.30 LIB, 17.63 BLQ, 1.25 PPC, 0.90 NDP, 0.37 GRN
Repentigny BLQ - 45.09 BLQ, 35.28 LIB, 13.91 CON, 3.63 NDP, 1.63 OTH, 0.47 PPC
Saint-Maurice--Champlain LIB - 49.48 LIB, 23.81 BLQ, 23.05 CON, 1.54 GRN, 1.12 NDP, 0.55 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Trois-Rivieres BLQ - 35.66 LIB, 34.40 CON, 23.23 BLQ, 4.11 NDP, 1.54 GRN, 0.59 PPC, 0.46 OTH
Eastern Townships (10 seats):
Beauce (PPC Leader) CON - 53.63 CON, 19.93 LIB, 17.08 PPC, 9.17 BLQ, 0.18 NDP
Brome--Missisquoi LIB - 42.25 LIB, 28.63 BLQ, 21.52 CON, 2.89 GRN, 2.55 NDP, 2.16 PPC
Compton--Stanstead LIB - 43.80 LIB, 24.32 BLQ, 22.57 CON, 3.65 NDP, 3.13 GRN, 2.53 PPC
Drummond BLQ - 41.04 BLQ, 26.57 LIB, 23.67 CON, 7.99 NDP, 0.72 PPC
Levis--Lotbiniere CON - 54.84 CON, 23.09 LIB, 16.78 BLQ, 4.14 NDP, 1.15 PPC
Megantic-L'Erable--Lotbiniere CON - 61.90 CON, 21.05 LIB, 13.36 BLQ, 2.20 PPC, 0.77 NDP, 0.72 OTH
Richmond--Arthabaska CON - 54.95 CON, 22.06 LIB, 18.50 BLQ, 2.28 PPC, 1.58 OTH, 0.63 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton BLQ - 41.35 BLQ, 29.88 LIB, 18.73 CON, 7.86 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.62 GRN
Shefford BLQ - 41.46 LIB, 36.01 BLQ, 17.58 CON, 2.52 NDP, 2.42 PPC
Sherbrooke LIB - 44.64 LIB, 22.85 BLQ, 17.95 CON, 10.12 NDP, 3.21 GRN, 1.22 PPC
Monteregie (11 seats):
Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntington BLQ - 42.24 BLQ, 34.42 LIB, 17.02 CON, 3.62 NDP, 2.21 PPC, 0.58 GRN
Beloeil--Chambly (BLQ Leader) BLQ - 47.72 BLQ, 31.51 LIB, 13.88 CON, 5.87 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Brossard--Saint-Lambert LIB - 61.19 LIB, 17.09 CON, 13.73 BLQ, 6.51 NDP, 1.19 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Chateauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville BLQ - 43.55 LIB, 30.50 BLQ, 17.41 CON, 4.03 NDP, 2.61 PPC, 1.90 GRN
La Prairie--Atateken BLQ - 41.44 LIB, 37.26 BLQ, 14.78 CON, 3.36 NDP, 1.19 GRN, 1.27 PPC
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne LIB - 48.24 LIB, 29.05 BLQ, 13.41 CON, 7.55 NDP, 1.61 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert BLQ - 46.46 LIB, 35.15 BLQ, 12.97 CON, 5.43 NDP
Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie BLQ - 40.95 LIB, 38.97 BLQ, 14.54 CON, 4.37 NDP, 0.78 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Vercheres BLQ - 48.14 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 14.01 CON, 4.00 NDP, 0.75 PPC
Saint-Jean BLQ - 40.01 BLQ, 35.42 LIB, 18.05 CON, 3.60 NDP, 2.64 GRN, 0.29 PPC
Vaudreuil LIB - 54.39 LIB, 21.34 CON, 14.44 BLQ, 6.71 NDP, 2.77 GRN, 0.35 PPC
Eastern Montreal (9 seats):
Ahuntsic--Cartierville LIB - 59.75 LIB, 16.45 BLQ, 14.04 CON, 9.23 NDP 0.54 OTH
Bourassa LIB - 67.98 LIB, 12.39 BLQ, 12.05 CON, 4.96 NDP, 2.33 PPC, 0.30 OTH
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est LIB - 45.45 LIB, 25.23 BLQ, 16.41 NDP, 10.39 CON, 2.28 GRN, 0.25 OTH
Honore-Mercier LIB - 66.71 LIB, 15.29 CON, 10.02 BLQ, 3.37 NDP, 2.86 PPC, 1.74 GRN
La Pointe-de-l'Ile BLQ - 40.43 BLQ, 39.41 LIB, 12.74 CON, 5.82 NDP, 1.31 OTH, 0.30 GRN
Laurier--Sainte-Marie LIB - 46.59 LIB, 26.40 NDP, 13.89 BLQ, 9.56 CON, 2.47 GRN, 0.65 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Papineau LIB - 58.47 LIB, 20.21 NDP, 10.10 CON, 8.91 BLQ, 1.29 OTH, 1.02 PPC
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie NDP - 44.41 NDP, 29.99 LIB, 14.90 BLQ, 8.14 CON, 2.57 GRN
Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel LIB - 75.80 LIB, 14.63 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.87 BLQ, 2.43 PPC
Western Montreal (9 seats):
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle LIB - 58.83 LIB, 16.53 CON, 9.45 BLQ, 9.19 NDP, 3.07 GRN, 2.87 PPC, 0.06 OTH
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB - 60.99 LIB, 21.65 CON, 9.36 NDP, 3.48 GRN, 2.88 BLQ, 1.64 PPC
LaSalle-Emard--Verdun BLQ - 44.10 LIB, 17.99 BLQ, 17.82 NDP, 14.25 CON, 2.77 GRN, 2.12 OTH, 0.94 PPC
Mount Royal LIB - 62.79 LIB, 27.58 CON, 6.26 NDP, 2.85 BLQ, 0.52 OTH
Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount LIB - 58.10 LIB, 17.38 CON, 13.31 NDP, 7.11 GRN, 2.90 BLQ, 1.10 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Outremont (GRN co-Leader) LIB - 51.37 LIB, 16.88 GRN, 12.89 CON, 9.69 NDP, 9.18 BLQ
Pierrefonds--Dollard LIB - 61.98 LIB, 24.75 CON, 7.70 NDP, 3.00 BLQ, 2.39 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Saint-Laurent  LIB - 65.45 LIB, 22.35 CON, 6.81 NDP, 3.12 BLQ, 1.83 PPC, 0.36 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Ville-Marie--Le-Sud-Ouest--Ile-des-Soeurs LIB - 58.50 LIB, 18.79 CON, 13.85 NDP, 5.58 BLQ, 2.98 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Laval (4 seats):
Alfred-Pellan LIB - 55.57 LIB, 20.63 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.89 NDP, 0.28 PPC
Laval-Les Iles LIB - 56.71 LIB, 25.52 CON, 13.06 BLQ, 4.70 NDP
Marc-Aurele-Fortin LIB - 51.63 LIB, 24.96 BLQ, 18.26 CON, 5.15 NDP
Vimy LIB - 57.30 LIB, 20.96 CON, 16.11 BLQ, 5.63 NDP
Laurentides--Outaouais--Northern Quebec (13 seats):
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BLQ - 34.47 LIB, 32.61 BLQ, 23.50 CON, 9.42 NDP
Abitibi--Temiscamingue BLQ - 44.48 BLQ, 31.82 LIB, 18.28 CON, 3.07 NDP, 2.37 OTH
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation LIB - 46.32 LIB, 26.59 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.53 PPC, 3.25 NDP, 0.69 GRN
Gatineau LIB - 57.73 LIB, 17.23 BLQ, 16.22 CON, 5.46 NDP, 2.72 PPC, 0.63 OTH
Hull--Aylmer LIB - 59.49 LIB, 15.84 CON, 9.82 BLQ, 8.81 NDP, 3.06 GRN, 2.33 PPC, 0.64 OTH
Laurentides--Labelle BLQ - 46.39 BLQ, 30.66 LIB, 15.76 CON, 2.87 GRN, 2.52 PPC, 1.80 NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut BLQ - 41.54 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 16.93 CON, 3.25 PPC, 3.18 NDP, 2.00 GRN
Mirabel BLQ - 39.60 BLQ, 31.75 LIB, 18.57 CON, 4.84 NDP, 2.66 PPC, 2.58 GRN
Pontiac-Kitigan Zibi LIB - 50.89 LIB, 26.48 CON, 8.88 BLQ, 7.43 NDP, 3.16 GRN, 3.15 PPC
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles BLQ - 42.37 LIB, 34.34 BLQ, 15.25 CON, 3.28 NDP, 2.06 GRN, 1.40 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Riviere-du-Nord BLQ - 46.07 BLQ, 30.43 LIB, 19.53 CON, 3.96 NDP
Terrebonne BLQ - 37.54 LIB, 36.38 BLQ, 16.72 CON, 3.92 NDP, 2.87 GRN, 2.56 PPC
Therese-De Blainville BLQ - 43.10 LIB, 34.80 BLQ, 16.31 CON, 4.35 NDP, 1.44 PPC
Ontario (122 seats)
Ottawa (8 seats):
Carleton (CON Leader) CON - 56.45 CON, 39.77 LIB, 1.93 GRN, 1.57 NDP, 0.28 OTH
Kanata LIB - 51.78 LIB, 40.50 CON, 5.16 NDP, 2.29 GRN, 0.27 OTH
Nepean (LIB Leader) LIB - 53.62 LIB, 37.71 CON, 6.54 NDP, 1.75 GRN, 0.38 PPC
Orleans LIB - 60.21 LIB, 32.95 CON, 4.83 NDP, 1.43 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Ottawa Centre LIB - 53.38 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 20.06 CON, 2.54 GRN, 0.90 OTH
Ottawa South LIB - 57.98 LIB, 31.22 CON, 8.31 NDP, 1.96 GRN, 0.53 OTH
Ottawa West--Nepean LIB - 53.81 LIB, 32.62 CON, 10.46 NDP, 2.70 GRN, 0.27 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester LIB - 57.33 LIB, 25.61 CON, 13.56 NDP, 2.86 GRN, 0.36 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Eastern Ontario (8 seats):
Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke CON - 56.99 CON, 27.82 LIB, 11.45 NDP, 1.88 OTH, 1.86 GRN
Bay of Quinte CON - 46.27 CON, 45.64 LIB, 5.85 NDP, 2.24 GRN
Hastings--Lenox and Addington--Tyendinaga CON - 51.08 CON, 43.15 LIB, 2.04 PPC, 1.98 GRN, 1.75 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB - 49.17 LIB, 29.26 CON, 19.22 NDP, 2.35 GRN
Lanark--Frontenac CON - 56.62 CON, 34.48 LIB, 5.99 NDP, 2.92 GRN
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON - 55.63 CON, 33.65 LIB, 5.40 NDP, 3.52 GRN, 1.81 PPC
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland LIB - 55.65 LIB, 37.35 CON, 2.38 PPC, 1.84 GRN, 1.64 OTH, 1.14 NDP
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry CON - 61.92 CON, 33.13 LIB, 2.27 GRN, 1.35 NDP, 1.33 OTH
Central Ontario (10 seats):
Barrie South--Innisfil CON - 52.78 CON, 37.29 LIB, 6.16 NDP, 3.77 PPC
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte CON - 52.85 CON, 38.82 LIB, 7.06 NDP, 1.13 OTH, 0.14 GRN
Bruce--Grey--Owen South CON - 54.18 CON, 33.58 LIB, 4.02 PPC, 3.94 NDP, 2.88 GRN, 1.42 OTH
Dufferin--Caledon CON - 54.15 CON, 36.78 LIB, 4.36 GRN, 3.15 PPC, 0.85 OTH, 0.71 NDP
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CON - 57.52 CON, 33.36 LIB, 5.91 NDP, 3.21 PPC
New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury CON - 52.77 CON, 38.88 LIB, 3.62 PPC, 3.53 NDP, 1.20 GRN
Northumberland--Clarke CON - 48.96 CON, 42.37 LIB, 4.30 NDP, 2.39 GRN, 1.46 PPC, 0.52 OTH
Peterborough CON - 44.18 CON, 43.17 LIB, 9.53 NDP, 2.04 GRN, 0.80 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Simcoe North CON - 47.11 CON, 39.21 LIB, 6.33 NDP, 3.64 PPC, 2.87 GRN, 0.84 OTH
Simcoe--Grey CON - 52.61 CON, 36.42 LIB, 4.17 GRN, 3.70 NDP, 3.09 PPC
Durham--York (15 seats):
Ajax LIB - 64.66 LIB, 28.42 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.17 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill LIB - 52.61 LIB, 46.62 CON, 0.31 NDP, 0.28 PPC, 0.19 GRN
Bowmanville--Oshawa North CON - 55.10 CON, 36.13 LIB, 5.82 NDP, 2.30 OTH, 0.65 GRN
King--Vaughan CON - 49.72 LIB, 48.58 CON, 1.08 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.27 NDP
Markham--Stouffville LIB - 58.83 LIB, 38.48 CON, 1.80 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.21 NDP
Markham--Thornhill LIB - 68.75 LIB, 29.63 CON, 1.05 NDP, 0.40 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Markham--Unionville LIB - 54.45 LIB, 42.82 CON, 2.42 GRN, 0.31 NDP
Newmarket--Aurora LIB - 53.09 LIB, 43.83 CON, 3.07 NDP
Oshawa CON - 47.15 CON, 31.84 LIB, 19.25 NDP, 1.75 GRN
Pickering--Brooklin LIB - 56.45 LIB, 38.98 CON, 3.81 NDP, 0.35 PPC, 0.34 OTH, 0.06 GRN
Richmond Hill South LIB - 55.82 LIB, 43.34 CON, 0.33 PPC, 0.26 NDP, 0.22 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Thornhill CON - 55.07 CON, 42.52 LIB, 1.47 GRN, 0.58 PPC, 0.37 NDP
Vaughan--Woodbridge LIB - 54.09 LIB, 44.38 CON, 1.36 PPC, 0.17 NDP
Whitby LIB - 53.49 LIB, 39.65 CON, 4.82 NDP, 1.45 GRN, 0.60 OTH
York--Durham CON - 57.18 CON, 36.74 LIB, 3.04 NDP, 2.50 PPC, 0.53 GRN
Suburban Toronto (13 seats):
Don Valley North LIB - 60.76 LIB, 36.90 CON, 1.61 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 NDP, 0.05 OTH
Etobicoke Centre LIB - 56.98 LIB, 41.36 CON, 1.66 NDP
Etobicoke North LIB - 67.26 LIB, 30.31 CON, 1.05 OTH, 0.95 NDP, 0.34 PPC, 0.09 GRN
Etobicoke--Lakeshore LIB - 56.09 LIB, 37.61 CON, 4.66 NDP, 1.26 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Humber River--Black Creek LIB - 69.37 LIB, 22.45 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 OTH
Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East LIB - 64.62 LIB, 30.51 CON, 4.40 NDP, 0.47 PPC
Scarborough North LIB - 75.60 LIB, 22.27 CON, 2.13 NDP
Scarborough Southwest LIB - 65.91 LIB, 25.07 CON, 6.39 NDP, 2.08 GRN, 0.34 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Scarborough--Agincourt LIB - 65.20 LIB, 33.59 CON, 1.21 NDP
Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park LIB - 69.55 LIB, 26.61 CON, 3.77 NDP, 0.08 GRN
Scarborough--Woburn LIB - 68.86 LIB, 26.75 CON, 3.42 NDP, 0.95 OTH, 0.03 GRN
Willowdale LIB - 60.26 LIB, 38.21 CON, 1.53 NDP
York Centre LIB - 55.81 LIB, 43.50 CON, 0.69 NDP
Central Toronto (11 seats):
Beaches--East York LIB - 64.64 LIB, 18.85 CON, 12.97 NDP, 2.51 GRN, 1.03 OTH
Davenport LIB - 51.94 LIB, 29.86 NDP, 15.32 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Don Valley West LIB - 64.93 LIB, 33.80 CON, 0.81 GRN, 0.34 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Eglinton--Lawrence LIB - 55.86 LIB, 40.69 CON, 2.84 GRN, 0.42 PPC, 0.19 NDP
Spadina--Harbourfront LIB - 45.32 LIB, 26.65 CON, 24.15 NDP, 3.05 GRN, 0.45 PPC, 0.38 OTH
Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park LIB - 51.05 LIB, 28.83 NDP, 17.71 CON, 1.67 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Toronto Centre LIB - 58.01 LIB, 17.25 CON, 16.26 NDP, 7.82 GRN, 0.39 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Toronto--Danforth LIB - 56.65 LIB, 23.93 NDP, 16.48 CON, 1.71 GRN, 1.21 OTH
Toronto--St. Paul's CON - 53.84 LIB, 37.12 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.16 NDP, 0.33 PPC, 0.21 OTH
University--Rosedale LIB - 54.90 LIB, 21.90 CON, 18.24 NDP, 4.24 GRN, 0.72 OTH
York South--Weston--Etobicoke LIB - 65.03 LIB, 28.53 CON, 6.45 NDP
Peel (12 seats):
Brampton Centre LIB - 56.49 LIB, 36.48 CON, 6.19 NDP, 0.50 PPC, 0.24 OTH, 0.10 GRN
Brampton East LIB - 60.70 LIB, 32.76 CON, 5.85 NDP, 0.46 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Brampton North--Caledon LIB - 58.54 LIB, 36.69 CON, 4.35 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Brampton South LIB - 61.75 LIB, 33.80 CON, 3.76 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Brampton West LIB - 64.61 LIB, 31.65 CON, 3.05 NDP, 0.63 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Brampton--Chinguacousy Park LIB - 57.72 LIB, 34.58 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.37 PPC, 0.08 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Mississauga Centre LIB - 62.68 LIB, 33.93 CON, 2.28 NDP, 0.91 OTH, 0.20 PPC
Mississauga East--Cooksville LIB - 58.62 LIB, 36.63 CON, 2.43 PPC, 1.39 OTH, 0.93 NDP
Mississauga--Erin Mills LIB - 59.13 LIB, 38.08 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.66 NDP, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH
Mississauga--Lakeshore LIB - 54.62 LIB, 42.49 CON, 2.32 GRN, 0.40 PPC, 0.12 NDP, 0.06 OTH
Mississauga--Malton LIB - 60.31 LIB, 34.45 CON, 4.79 NDP, 0.45 PPC
Mississauga--Streetsville LIB - 55.73 LIB, 39.42 CON, 2.48 NDP, 2.01 GRN, 0.37 PPC
Hamilton--Halton--Niagara (14 seats):
Burlington LIB - 54.08 LIB, 42.25 CON, 1.79 GRN, 1.21 NDP, 0.41 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Burlington North--Milton West LIB - 56.81 LIB, 41.97 CON, 0.91 NDP, 0.30 PPC
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North CON - 49.21 CON, 40.77 LIB, 4.94 NDP, 2.68 PPC, 2.40 GRN
Hamilton Centre NDP - 37.49 NDP, 34.94 LIB, 21.47 CON, 2.54 PPC, 2.48 GRN, 1.09 OTH
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek LIB - 48.42 LIB, 35.35 CON, 12.79 NDP, 3.45 PPC
Hamilton Mountain LIB - 43.53 LIB, 30.20 CON, 22.58 NDP, 2.26 PPC, 1.43 OTH
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas LIB - 52.63 LIB, 34.12 CON, 10.02 NDP, 2.41 GRN, 0.42 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Milton East--Halton Hills South LIB - 50.31 LIB, 46.05 CON, 2.37 GRN, 0.84 PPC, 0.31 NDP, 0.13 OTH
Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake CON - 43.56 LIB, 42.40 CON, 8.20 NDP, 3.55 PPC, 1.76 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara South CON - 41.27 LIB, 38.43 CON, 13.15 NDP, 4.92 PPC, 1.71 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara West CON - 49.17 CON, 40.25 LIB, 5.47 NDP, 3.06 PPC, 2.04 OTH
Oakville East LIB - 53.88 LIB, 43.86 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.33 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.16 NDP
Oakville West LIB - 55.16 LIB, 42.59 CON, 1.53 GRN, 0.37 PPC, 0.22 NDP, 0.12 OTH
St. Catharines LIB - 46.80 LIB, 37.48 CON, 12.33 NDP, 2.57 PPC, 0.82 OTH

Midwestern Ontario (12 seats):
Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations CON - 45.27 CON, 35.99 LIB, 10.52 NDP, 4.75 PPC, 2.46 GRN, 1.01 OTH
Cambridge LIB - 46.69 LIB, 41.28 CON, 7.56 NDP, 3.33 GRN, 1.15 OTH
Guelph LIB - 49.59 LIB, 28.42 CON, 12.48 NDP, 7.69 GRN, 1.18 OTH, 0.64 PPC
Haldimand--Norfolk CON - 52.39 CON, 35.86 LIB, 6.47 PPC, 3.64 NDP, 1.50 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Huron--Bruce CON - 58.16 CON, 34.61 LIB, 5.27 NDP, 1.85 OTH, 0.11 GRN
Kitchener Centre GRN - 33.14 GRN, 29.87 CON, 25.69 LIB, 7.85 NDP, 2.64 PPC, 0.80 OTH
Kitchener South--Hespeler LIB - 45.80 LIB, 40.54 CON, 6.62 NDP, 3.26 GRN, 2.72 PPC, 1.06 OTH
Kitchener--Conestoga LIB - 48.48 LIB, 43.25 CON, 4.72 NDP, 3.55 PPC
Oxford CON - 50.26 CON, 35.20 LIB, 5.65 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 2.84 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Perth--Wellington CON - 53.66 CON, 33.03 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 5.74 PPC
Waterloo LIB - 53.89 LIB, 32.38 CON, 9.48 NDP, 3.23 GRN, 0.52 OTH, 0.50 PPC
Wellington--Halton Hills North CON - 51.96 CON, 38.83 LIB, 4.64 GRN, 2.30 NDP, 2.27 PPC

Southwestern Ontario (10 seats):
Chatham-Kent--Leamington CON - 47.52 CON, 35.18 LIB, 10.81 PPC, 5.06 NDP, 1.43 GRN
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South CON - 54.70 CON, 28.97 LIB, 8.55 PPC, 7.78 NDP
Essex CON - 46.33 CON, 24.42 LIB, 22.78 NDP, 6.47 PPC
London Centre LIB - 46.00 LIB, 29.75 CON, 20.72 NDP, 1.77 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.67 OTH
London West LIB - 45.18 LIB, 39.88 CON, 13.27 NDP, 1.46 OTH, 0.21 GRN
London--Fanshawe NDP - 33.83 NDP, 31.51 LIB, 29.39 CON, 5.27 PPC
Middlesex--London CON - 50.91 CON, 35.39 LIB, 7.60 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN, 0.71 OTH
Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong CON - 51.79 CON, 28.19 LIB, 11.62 NDP, 7.01 PPC, 1.39 OTH
Windsor West NDP - 36.12 LIB, 34.59 NDP, 24.34 CON, 4.32 PPC, 0.61 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore LIB - 39.35 LIB, 31.94 CON, 20.60 NDP, 6.27 PPC, 1.02 GRN, 0.82 OTH
Northern Ontario (9 seats):
Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk NDP - 34.94 LIB, 30.21 CON, 26.43 NDP, 8.41 PPC
Kenora--Kiiwetinoong CON - 48.38 CON, 28.19 LIB, 19.32 NDP, 2.37 PPC, 1.21 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Nipissing--Timiskaming LIB - 45.14 LIB, 36.94 CON, 13.74 NDP, 3.95 PPC, 0.23 GRN
Parry Sound--Muskoka CON - 53.78 CON, 32.24 LIB, 9.97 NDP, 4.01 PPC
Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma CON - 41.59 CON, 40.73 LIB, 16.15 NDP, 1.04 OTH, 0.50 GRN
Sudbury LIB - 44.26 LIB, 33.15 CON, 20.29 NDP, 2.30 PPC
Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt LIB - 40.22 LIB, 31.96 CON, 20.68 NDP, 4.94 PPC, 1.54 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LIB - 42.71 LIB, 34.39 CON, 18.90 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 1.35 GRN
Thunder Bay--Superior North LIB - 48.93 LIB, 29.00 CON, 18.30 NDP, 2.03 PPC, 1.74 GRN
Prairies (28 seats)
Rural Manitoba (6 seats):
Brandon--Souris CON - 61.52 CON, 28.70 LIB, 9.78 NDP
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP - 42.44 LIB, 32.82 NDP, 24.62 CON, 0.12 PPC
Portage--Lisgar CON - 57.93 CON, 26.67 LIB, 14.01 PPC, 1.10 GRN, 0.28 NDP
Provencher CON - 49.11 CON, 33.63 LIB, 12.02 PPC, 3.11 GRN, 2.13 NDP
Riding Mountain CON - 59.58 CON, 29.52 LIB, 4.62 PPC, 4.03 NDP, 2.25 GRN
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman CON - 57.09 CON, 29.72 LIB, 8.71 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.50 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Winnipeg (8 seats):
Elmwood--Transcona NDP - 37.38 NDP, 34.56 CON, 26.81 LIB, 0.99 GRN, 0.26 PPC
Kildonan--St. Paul CON - 44.38 LIB, 42.40 CON, 13.04 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital LIB - 60.62 LIB, 28.33 CON, 10.87 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Winnipeg Centre NDP - 45.28 LIB, 38.92 NDP, 12.82 CON, 2.43 GRN, 0.38 OTH, 0.16 PPC
Winnipeg North LIB - 69.19 LIB, 16.06 NDP, 12.88 CON, 1.24 GRN, 0.32 PPC, 0.31 OTH
Winnipeg South LIB - 63.34 LIB, 31.27 CON, 3.77 NDP, 1.52 GRN, 0.09 PPC
Winnipeg South Centre LIB - 63.69 LIB, 25.09 CON, 8.05 NDP, 2.71 GRN, 0.33 OTH, 0.13 PPC 
Winnipeg West CON - 55.22 LIB, 38.73 CON, 4.07 NDP, 1.98 GRN
Southern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan CON - 61.47 CON, 22.95 LIB, 8.69 NDP, 5.55 PPC, 1.33 GRN
Regina--Lewvan CON - 45.49 CON, 29.89 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 1.27 GRN, 0.23 PPC 
Regina--Qu'Appelle CON - 60.11 CON, 27.07 LIB, 12.58 NDP, 0.24 PPC
Regina--Wascana CON - 48.73 CON, 42.07 LIB, 7.48 NDP, 1.65 GRN, 0.08 PPC
Souris--Moose Mountain CON - 78.43 CON, 20.92 LIB, 0.22 NDP, 0.22 GRN, 0.21 OTH
Swift Current-Grasslands--Kindersley CON - 73.88 CON, 21.05 LIB, 4.96 OTH, 0.11 NDP
Yorkton--Melville CON - 71.19 CON, 23.04 LIB, 2.20 OTH, 1.88 GRN, 1.69 NDP
Northern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake CON - 66.62 CON, 24.30 LIB, 5.28 OTH, 3.81 NDP
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek CON - 71.71 CON, 23.44 LIB, 4.85 NDP
Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River LIB - 59.04 LIB, 26.12 CON, 14.83 NDP
Prince Albert CON - 65.18 CON, 29.29 LIB, 5.53 NDP
Saskatoon South CON - 48.71 CON, 30.39 LIB, 19.53 NDP, 1.26 GRN, 0.10 PPC
Saskatoon West CON - 45.54 CON, 28.60 NDP, 24.70 LIB, 1.08 GRN, 0.07 PPC
Saskatoon--University CON - 46.98 CON, 27.43 LIB, 24.68 NDP, 0.91 GRN
Alberta (37 seats)
Northern Alberta (8 seats):
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CON - 71.57 CON, 19.24 LIB, 7.52 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.22 NDP, 0.20 OTH
Grande Prairie CON - 73.15 CON, 16.55 LIB, 5.03 PPC, 3.47 OTH, 1.81 NDP
Lakeland CON - 73.53 CON, 17.24 LIB, 5.87 PPC, 1.84 OTH, 1.14 GRN, 0.37 NDP
Leduc--Wetaskiwin CON - 67.42 CON, 18.86 LIB, 7.51 NDP, 6.07 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Parkland CON - 67.26 CON, 18.46 LIB, 6.14 PPC, 6.11 NDP, 1.77 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Peace River--Westlock CON - 71.89 CON, 18.34 LIB, 6.02 OTH, 3.75 NDP
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan CON - 61.68 CON, 24.50 LIB, 10.50 NDP, 1.83 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.24 OTH
St. Albert--Sturgeon River CON - 60.30 CON, 23.48 LIB, 13.40 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 0.18 OTH
Edmonton (9 seats):
Edmonton Centre CON - 42.99 LIB, 36.10 CON, 19.88 NDP, 0.69 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Edmonton Gateway CON - 47.05 CON, 37.96 LIB, 10.51 NDP, 3.55 OTH, 0.93 PPC
Edmonton Greisbach NDP - 40.15 CON, 30.02 NDP, 27.27 LIB, 1.40 GRN, 0.74 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Edmonton Manning CON - 44.89 CON, 32.56 LIB, 20.70 NDP, 1.84 PPC
Edmonton Northwest CON - 46.50 CON, 34.76 LIB, 17.39 NDP, 1.06 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Edmonton Riverbend CON - 48.54 CON, 36.86 LIB, 13.97 NDP, 0.64 PPC
Edmonton Southeast CON - 45.78 LIB, 41.03 CON, 11.56 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.68 OTH
Edmonton Strathcona NDP - 46.89 NDP, 30.02 CON, 20.41 LIB, 1.51 GRN, 0.77 PPC, 0.39 OTH
Edmonton West CON - 49.02 CON, 35.98 LIB, 13.69 NDP, 0.91 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Calgary (11 seats):
Calgary Centre CON - 51.65 CON, 39.11 LIB, 6.29 NDP, 1.89 GRN, 0.71 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Calgary Confederation CON - 48.55 CON, 39.06 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 3.96 GRN, 0.64 PPC, 0.21 OTH
Calgary Crowfoot CON - 58.05 CON, 32.83 LIB, 6.03 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.89 PPC, 0.25 OTH
Calgary East CON - 56.75 CON, 30.50 LIB, 7.99 NDP, 2.93 GRN, 2.02 PPC, 0.34 OTH
Calgary Heritage CON - 64.10 CON, 27.91 LIB, 6.17 NDP, 1.73 GRN, 0.09 OTH
Calgary McKnight LIB - 54.59 LIB, 36.64 CON, 5.99 NDP, 1.39 GRN, 0.87 PPC, 0.51 OTH
Calgary Midnapore CON - 64.31 CON, 24.71 LIB, 8.45 NDP, 1.61 GRN, 0.91 PPC
Calgary Nose Hill CON - 59.16 CON, 32.07 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 1.87 GRN, 0.08 OTH
Calgary Shepard CON - 65.29 CON, 26.14 LIB, 5.88 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Calgary Signal Hill CON - 63.01 CON, 31.07 LIB, 4.76 NDP, 0.87 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Calgary Skyview CON - 47.43 CON, 45.42 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 0.32 OTH
Southern Alberta (9 seats):
Airdrie--Cochrane CON - 66.52 CON, 22.84 LIB, 5.46 NDP, 5.18 OTH
Battle River--Crowfoot CON - 76.08 CON, 17.08 LIB, 4.68 PPC, 1.73 GRN, 0.43 NDP
Bow River CON - 76.92 CON, 20.38 LIB, 2.34 OTH, 0.36 NDP
Foothills CON - 73.02 CON, 19.69 LIB, 3.50 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 1.74 NDP
Lethbridge CON - 59.78 CON, 27.42 LIB, 9.17 NDP, 1.77 PPC, 1.61 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner CON - 73.32 CON, 19.96 LIB, 4.41 NDP, 2.31 GRN
Ponoka--Didsbury CON - 73.54 CON, 9.06 OTH, 9.05 NDP, 8.34 PPC
Red Deer CON - 64.40 CON, 20.59 LIB, 7.39 NDP, 6.04 PPC, 1.32 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Yellowhead CON - 64.13 CON, 23.63 LIB, 5.32 NDP, 3.99 PPC, 2.93 OTH
British Columbia (43 seats)
BC Interior (10 seats):
Cariboo--Prince George CON - 57.34 CON, 29.94 LIB, 4.99 NDP, 4.97 PPC, 1.86 GRN, 0.89 OTH
Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies CON - 49.76 CON, 22.61 LIB, 21.33 NDP, 3.82 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies CON - 51.15 CON, 30.41 LIB, 9.94 NDP, 4.88 PPC, 3.62 GRN
Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola CON - 49.68 CON, 31.59 LIB, 13.56 NDP, 2.87 PPC, 2.30 GRN
Kelowna CON - 51.08 CON, 40.50 LIB, 6.56 NDP, 1.86 GRN
Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna CON - 54.47 CON, 37.05 LIB, 3.47 NDP, 3.45 PPC, 1.13 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies CON - 65.63 CON, 23.33 LIB, 7.45 PPC, 2.20 GRN, 1.39 NDP
Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay NDP - 43.80 CON, 27.13 LIB, 23.61 NDP, 3.66 PPC, 1.80 GRN
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP - 45.22 CON, 27.50 NDP, 21.53 LIB, 3.43 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee CON - 54.49 CON, 33.99 LIB, 7.26 NDP, 4.25 GRN
Fraser Valley--Southern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Abbotsford--South Langley CON - 32.90 CON, 31.65 LIB, 27.26 OTH, 3.73 PPC, 2.97 NDP, 1.50 GRN
Chilliwack--Hope CON - 51.92 CON, 30.98 LIB, 11.12 NDP, 4.36 PPC, 1.19 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Cloverdale--Langley City CON - 48.88 CON, 46.87 LIB, 2.93 NDP, 1.07 PPC, 0.26 GRN
Delta LIB - 56.32 LIB, 39.24 CON, 3.46 NDP, 0.98 PPC
Fleetwood--Port Kells LIB - 47.71 LIB, 45.89 CON, 5.05 NDP, 1.05 PPC, 0.30 GRN
Langley Township--Fraser Heights CON - 49.99 CON, 43.24 LIB, 4.28 NDP, 1.21 PPC, 0.81 GRN, 0.47 OTH
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford CON - 53.47 CON, 37.88 LIB, 3.75 PPC, 2.75 NDP, 2.14 GRN
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge CON - 43.12 CON, 37.90 LIB, 15.45 NDP, 2.24 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Richmond Centre--Marpole LIB - 51.65 LIB, 40.84 CON, 4.93 NDP, 1.50 GRN, 1.08 PPC
Richmond East--Steveston LIB - 55.63 LIB, 39.44 CON, 4.18 NDP, 0.75 GRN
South Surrey--White Rock CON - 51.32 LIB, 47.52 CON, 0.97 NDP, 0.18 GRN
Surrey Centre LIB - 44.27 LIB, 40.76 CON, 12.37 NDP, 1.09 PPC, 0.93 OTH, 0.59 GRN
Surrey--Newton LIB - 53.27 LIB, 34.98 CON, 10.14 NDP, 1.61 OTH
Vancouver--Northern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Burnaby Central (NDP Leader) NDP - 45.46 LIB, 28.24 CON, 25.14 NDP, 1.17 PPC
Burnaby North--Seymour LIB - 54.99 LIB, 32.44 CON, 11.67 NDP, 0.90 PPC
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam LIB - 51.23 LIB, 36.42 CON, 12.04 NDP, 0.23 OTH, 0.09 GRN
New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville NDP - 37.03 LIB, 32.83 NDP, 27.38 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.55 OTH
North Vancouver--Capilano LIB - 57.82 LIB, 34.93 CON, 3.48 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.08 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Port Moody--Coquitlam NDP - 42.86 LIB, 37.64 CON, 19.36 NDP, 0.07 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Vancouver Centre LIB - 53.99 LIB, 27.51 CON, 14.58 NDP, 2.18 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.65 OTH
Vancouver East NDP - 41.13 NDP, 33.49 LIB, 16.90 CON, 6.09 GRN, 1.27 OTH, 1.12 PPC
Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby LIB - 55.72 LIB, 27.55 CON, 15.58 NDP, 1.07 OTH 
Vancouver Granville LIB - 50.96 LIB, 29.99 CON, 17.87 NDP, 1.18 GRN
Vancouver Kingsway NDP - 42.39 LIB, 34.86 NDP, 19.75 CON, 2.00 GRN, 1.00 PPC
Vancouver Quadra LIB - 56.23 LIB, 34.40 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.05 NDP, 0.98 PPC
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country LIB - 46.58 LIB, 34.90 CON, 11.99 NDP, 5.24 GRN, 1.03 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Vancouver Island (7 seats):
Courtenay--Alberni NDP - 37.37 CON, 27.65 NDP, 27.35 LIB, 5.35 GRN, 1.70 PPC, 0.58 OTH
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford NDP - 36.68 CON, 30.45 LIB, 27.89 NDP, 4.98 GRN
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke NDP - 35.63 LIB, 28.14 NDP, 27.83 CON, 7.32 GRN, 1.08 OTH
Nanaimo--Ladysmith NDP - 32.62 CON, 26.96 LIB, 24.34 GRN, 14.27 NDP, 1.81 PPC
North Island--Powell River NDP - 42.30 CON, 27.07 LIB, 24.06 NDP, 4.26 GRN, 1.29 PPC, 1.02 OTH
Saanich--Gulf Islands (GRN co-Leader) GRN - 34.26 GRN, 32.71 LIB, 28.69 CON, 4.32 NDP
Victoria NDP - 40.99 LIB, 28.63 NDP, 19.72 CON, 9.57 GRN, 1.01 PPC, 0.07 OTH
Territories (3 seats)
Nunavut NDP - 51.71 LIB, 36.29 NDP, 12.01 CON
Northwest Territories LIB - 52.92 LIB, 24.59 NDP, 17.54 CON, 4.96 GRN
Yukon LIB - 50.32 LIB, 33.34 CON, 10.39 NDP, 5.95 GRN

Work In Progress - Full Projection to be posted soon!
As many of you know, I'm a political nerd and junky. As a public servant in RL I do not participate in electoral campaigns these days but in the 2010s I was involved in campaigns for the provincial and federal NDP in my local area. I've been doing election projections and forecasts since the late 2000s for pure personal amusement and to help my understanding on how a given race is going. Today, I'm happy to publish my forecast for the 2025 Canadian federal election, with the first results from Newfoundland and Labrador most likely being announced shortly after 7pm EDT Monday night, and then moving across the country throughout the night.
Polls close in each region in this general order:
Newfoundland - 8:30pm NDT, 8:00pm ADT, 7:00pm EDT, 6:00pm CDT, 5:00pm MDT, 4:00pm PDT
Atlantic - 9:00pm NDT, 8:30pm ADT, 7:30pm EDT, 6:30pm CDT, 5:30pm MDT, 4:30pm PDT
Quebec/Ontario - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Manitoba - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Saskatchewan/Alberta - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
British Columbia - 11:30pm NDT, 11:00pm ADT, 10:00pm EDT, 9:00pm CDT, 8:00pm MDT, 7:00pm PDT
Headline Polling Numbers
Due to how geographically diverse our country is, polling is often analyzed by the headline federal numbers for each party, but perhaps more importantly by the "regional" numbers. Although there are 10 provinces and 3 territories, standard polling practice is to poll the country based off of the following regions: Atlantic (which is Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick), Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), Alberta, and British Columbia. This is due to the lower populations in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces and resulting sample sizes. For the territories I group them in the following fashion: Nunavut's projection is tied in with the Prairies, Northwest Territories is with Alberta, and Yukon is with British Columbia. In the below section I'll show where polling has each party in each region and also noting the difference from what they scored in the 2021 election:
CANADA - Liberal Party of Canada LIB 42.50% (+9.88), Conservative Party of Canada CON 38.83% (+5.09), New Democratic Party of Canada NDP 8.63% (-9.19), Bloc Quebecois BLQ 6.00% (-1.64), Green Party of Canada GRN 2.00% (-0.33), People's Party of Canada PPC 1.23% (-3.70), Other Parties/Independents OTH 0.80% (-0.11)
Atlantic - LIB 54.87% (+11.27), CON 35.33% (+3.79), NDP 6.50% (-10.42), GRN 1.63% (-1.55), PPC 1.37% (-2.99), OTH 0.30% (-0.10)
Quebec - LIB 40.63% (+7.03), BLQ 25.87% (-6.26), CON 23.70% (+5.05), NDP 5.83% (-3.94), GRN 1.77% (+0.24), PPC 1.37% (-1.32), OTH 0.83% (-0.80)
Ontario - LIB 47.60% (+8.34), CON 39.87% (+5.00), NDP 8.20% (-9.65), GRN 2.03% (-0.19), PPC 1.43% (-4.02), OTH 0.87% (+0.52)
Prairies - CON 48.87% (+0.28), LIB 36.30% (+16.61), NDP 11.50% (-10.60), GRN 1.43% (+0.03), PPC 1.13% (-6.01),  OTH 0.77% (-0.32)
Alberta - CON 59.40% (+4.13), LIB 27.73% (+12.28), NDP 8.93% (-10.14), PPC 2.17% (-5.18), GRN 1.17% (+0.26), OTH 0.60% (-1.34)
British Columbia - LIB 40.73% (+13.73), CON 39.23% (+6.01), NDP 13.90% (-15.27), GRN 3.67% (-1.62), PPC 1.63% (-3.28), OTH 0.88% (+0.43)
There are a few events in play: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (running in Carleton, ON) has been running a populist conservative campaign which has removed the PPC from play on his right-flank, along with grabbing the attention of those who feel angry and/or left behind by the past 10 years of Liberal government. This is why he will probably receive the best popular vote that any centre-right politician has in the post-1993 modern Canadian system. The threat of Donald Trump (and how Poilievre looks Trump-lite) and the perceived competency of Liberal leader Mark Carney (running in Nepean, ON) in the face of Trump (or in general compared to Trudeau) has moved NDP, Green, and even a good number of Bloc Quebecois voters over to the Liberals. Trump absolutely scares us and any time he mentions "51st State" or announces a new round of tariff, we wrap our red-and-white maple leaf flag around us even harder. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh (running in Burnaby Centre, BC), Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (running in Beloeil--Chambly, QC) and Greens co-led by Elizabeth May (running in Saanich--Gulf Islands, BC) and Jonathan Pedneault (running in Outremont, QC) are all urging their supporters to keep supporting their parties to provide somewhat of a check on a Carney-led Liberal majority government, to apparent limited success. The critical issue of the campaign has been Canadian sovereignty/who can be the best to stand up for Canada against Trump, followed by affordability/cost of living which was the top issue before Trump returned and started to bully us. Before the election the other major issue, fatigue with Justin Trudeau, was removed from the equation when over the winter his party finally broke with him and he announced he would resign after a new leader was found, allowing Mark Carney (who has served as Governor of the Central Bank of Canada and then of England) to launch a very successful campaign to become the Liberal standard-bearer. The consumer-side of the Carbon Tax was also removed as a campaign issue (which was seen as an affordability/cost of living issue for many Canadians who hated high gas and other prices) for the most part when Carney became PM just before the campaign officially started and changed the taxation rate to 0%, effectively removing the consumer-side of the Carbon Tax while generally leaving the industrial-side of said tax. 
Headline Seat Numbers
Of course, the popular vote does not actually determine who forms government in Canada, it is the number of MPs a Prime Minister can count on to deliver confidence. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by roughly 1% over the Liberals, and yet because of how solid the Conservative vote is in rural Canada (particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural parts of BC, Manitoba and Ontario) and inefficient elsewhere, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau in both of those elections won a plurality of seats in the House and kept government, either working bill-by-bill with any opposition party who wanted to work with them (or more likely, abstain on the bill), or form a confidence and supply agreement as what happened between 2022 and 2024 with the Liberal government and the NDP. Based off of the map of ridings in the country, and where people are, it is common assumption that if the Conservatives want to form a minority government they need to have at least 2-3% above the Liberals, and would need 4%+ to get a majority depending on how the other parties do in their respective areas. And yet, here are the seat projections I get with the numbers today:
LIB - 188
CON - 126
BLQ - 21
NDP - 6
GRN - 2
PPC - 0
OTH - 0
How did I get these numbers? In the past election we had 338 ridings, in this one we have 343. Elections Canada and other sources provide good data on how to transpose the prior election onto the new boundaries, and from that data I use a regional-swing model (with some adjustments in seats for local conditions) to get the below seat projections. In the below section, I sort ridings into sub-regions, note beside the riding name which party current holds the seat, and then show the expected percentages for each party running in the seat. If it has this colour as with its name then that is a riding which is within 10 points margin between the first and second placed party and thus is what I figure is a "battleground" riding.
Atlantic Canada (32 seats)
Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats):
Avalon LIB - 61.15 LIB, 35.42 CON, 2.97 NDP, 0.46 OTH
Cape Spear LIB - 65.06 LIB, 22.38 CON, 11.97 NDP, 0.38 GRN, 0.22 OTH 
Central Newfoundland CON - 53.77 LIB, 45.63 CON, 0.61 NDP
Labrador LIB - 53.38 LIB, 33.96 CON, 12.65 NDP
Long Range Mountains LIB - 54.87 LIB, 42.78 CON, 1.34 PPC, 0.84 NDP, 0.17 OTH
St. John's East LIB - 55.48 LIB, 23.66 NDP, 20.33 CON, 0.31 GRN, 0.23 OTH
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas LIB - 57.02 LIB, 42.39 CON, 0.60 NDP
Prince Edward Island (4 seats):
Cardigan LIB - 60.90 LIB, 33.79 CON, 3.26 GRN, 0.73 NDP, 0.69 OTH, 0.62 PPC
Charlottetown LIB - 56.81 LIB, 33.70 CON, 8.05 GRN, 0.83 NDP, 0.62 PPC
Egmont LIB - 56.33 LIB, 35.02 CON, 7.96 GRN, 0.68 NDP
Malpeque LIB - 51.85 LIB, 35.71 CON, 11.14 GRN, 0.69 NDP, 0.61 PPC
Nova Scotia (11 seats):
Acadie--Annapolis CON - 54.22 CON, 41.04 LIB, 2.30 PPC, 2.25 NDP, 0.20 GRN
Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish LIB - 56.36 LIB, 38.51 CON, 3.73 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Central Nova LIB - 55.56 LIB, 36.78 CON, 5.65 NDP, 1.00 PPC, 0.43 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Cumberland--Colchester CON - 49.93 CON, 45.58 LIB, 2.02 NDP, 1.30 PPC, 1.16 GRN
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LIB - 62.49 LIB, 22.28 NDP, 6.83 CON, 6.74 PPC, 1.36 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Halifax LIB - 53.10 LIB, 29.55 NDP, 16.10 CON, 0.65 GRN, 0.60 PPC
Halifax West LIB - 58.42 LIB, 24.88 CON, 15.18 NDP, 0.93 GRN, 0.59 PPC
Kings--Hants LIB - 55.60 LIB, 33.97 CON, 8.49 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Sackville--Bedford--Preston LIB - 56.02 LIB, 28.63 CON, 14.35 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 GRN
South Shore--St. Margaret's CON - 49.73 LIB, 44.95 CON, 2.59 GRN, 2.14 OTH, 0.59 PPC
Sydney--Glace Bay LIB - 52.42 LIB, 37.70 CON, 9.15 NDP, 0.59 PPC, 0.14 OTH

New Brunswick (10 seats):
Acadie--Bathurst LIB - 77.15 LIB, 17.96 CON, 3.21 PPC, 1.69 NDP
Beausejour LIB - 66.84 LIB, 23.18 CON, 4.59 PPC, 4.15 GRN, 0.69 OTH, 0.55 NDP
Fredericton--Oromocto LIB - 48.70 LIB, 36.96 CON, 10.75 GRN, 2.73 NDP, 0.68 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Fundy Royal CON - 50.18 CON, 36.59 LIB, 5.65 PPC, 4.10 NDP, 3.48 GRN
Madawasaka--Restigouche LIB - 63.68 LIB, 31.22 CON, 4.59 PPC, 0.52 NDP
Miramichi--Grand Lake CON - 49.86 CON, 46.34 LIB, 3.21 GRN, 0.59 NDP
Moncton--Dieppe LIB - 61.57 LIB, 28.81 CON, 6.64 NDP, 2.97 GRN
Saint John--Kennebacasis LIB - 54.02 LIB, 41.44 CON, 2.82 NDP, GRN GRN, 0.28 OTH
Saint John--St. Croix CON - 54.13 CON, 39.42 LIB, 2.80 NDP, 2.68 GRN, 0.98 OTH
Tobique--Mactaquac CON - 56.91 CON, 34.01 LIB, 4.36 PPC, 3.53 GRN, 1.19 NDP

Quebec (78 seats)
Eastern Quebec (4 seats):
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Levis CON - 57.50 CON, 23.35 LIB, 16.83 BLQ, 1.99 NDP, 0.32 PPC
Cote-du-Sud--Riviere-du-Loup--Kataskomiq--Temiscouata CON - 49.78 CON, 25.92 LIB, 23.37 BLQ, 0.43 PPC, 0.24 GRN, 0.14 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Gaspesie--Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj BLQ - 46.97 LIB, 38.00 BLQ, 13.31 CON, 0.68 PPC, 0.59 OTH, 0.45 NDP
Rimouski--La Matapedia BLQ - 48.12 BLQ, 29.14 LIB, 16.25 CON, 3.75 OTH, 2.02 NDP, 0.73 PPC
Cote-Nord--Saguenay (5 seats):
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord CON - 45.05 CON, 27.44 BLQ, 24.87 LIB, 1.41 GRN, 0.77 NDP, 0.46 PPC
Cote-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan BLQ - 46.33 BLQ, 25.98 CON, 25.78 LIB, 1.49 OTH, 0.42 NDP
Jonquiere BLQ - 36.26 BLQ, 32.76 CON, 27.20 LIB, 1.94 GRN, 1.41 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Lac-Saint-Jean BLQ - 43.46 BLQ, 29.13 CON, 24.85 LIB, 1.84 GRN, 0.48 PPC, 0.24 NDP
Montmorency--Charlevoix BLQ - 38.86 CON, 30.75 BLQ, 27.36 LIB, 1.54 GRN, 0.81 NDP, 0.68 PPC
Quebec City (5 seats):
Beauport--Limoilou BLQ - 35.13 CON, 31.37 LIB, 24.49 BLQ, 5.80 NDP, 2.28 GRN, 0.54 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles CON - 50.00 CON, 27.38 LIB, 18.54 BLQ, 2.83 NDP, 0.88 PPC, 0.36 OTH
Louis-Hebert LIB - 45.70 LIB, 29.10 CON, 20.26 BLQ, 4.50 NDP, 0.43 PPC
Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk CON - 57.48 CON, 25.14 LIB, 14.10 BLQ, 2.26 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Quebec-Centre LIB - 46.39 LIB, 23.80 BLQ, 12.54 OTH, 10.57 NDP, 6.71 PPC
Central Quebec (8 seats):
Becancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnobak BLQ - 48.81 BLQ, 24.20 LIB, 22.13 CON, 2.05 GRN, 1.43 NDP, 1.37 PPC
Berthier--Maskinonge BLQ - 30.10 BLQ, 27.24 NDP, 22.87 LIB, 16.40 CON, 1.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN
Joliette--Manawan BLQ - 49.29 BLQ, 29.72 LIB, 16.05 CON, 2.63 GRN, 2.32 NDP
Montcalm BLQ - 47.71 BLQ, 28.59 LIB, 19.49 CON, 4.21 NDP
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier CON - 57.54 CON, 22.30 LIB, 17.63 BLQ, 1.25 PPC, 0.90 NDP, 0.37 GRN
Repentigny BLQ - 45.09 BLQ, 35.28 LIB, 13.91 CON, 3.63 NDP, 1.63 OTH, 0.47 PPC
Saint-Maurice--Champlain LIB - 49.48 LIB, 23.81 BLQ, 23.05 CON, 1.54 GRN, 1.12 NDP, 0.55 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Trois-Rivieres BLQ - 35.66 LIB, 34.40 CON, 23.23 BLQ, 4.11 NDP, 1.54 GRN, 0.59 PPC, 0.46 OTH
Eastern Townships (10 seats):
Beauce (PPC Leader) CON - 53.63 CON, 19.93 LIB, 17.08 PPC, 9.17 BLQ, 0.18 NDP
Brome--Missisquoi LIB - 42.25 LIB, 28.63 BLQ, 21.52 CON, 2.89 GRN, 2.55 NDP, 2.16 PPC
Compton--Stanstead LIB - 43.80 LIB, 24.32 BLQ, 22.57 CON, 3.65 NDP, 3.13 GRN, 2.53 PPC
Drummond BLQ - 41.04 BLQ, 26.57 LIB, 23.67 CON, 7.99 NDP, 0.72 PPC
Levis--Lotbiniere CON - 54.84 CON, 23.09 LIB, 16.78 BLQ, 4.14 NDP, 1.15 PPC
Megantic-L'Erable--Lotbiniere CON - 61.90 CON, 21.05 LIB, 13.36 BLQ, 2.20 PPC, 0.77 NDP, 0.72 OTH
Richmond--Arthabaska CON - 54.95 CON, 22.06 LIB, 18.50 BLQ, 2.28 PPC, 1.58 OTH, 0.63 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton BLQ - 41.35 BLQ, 29.88 LIB, 18.73 CON, 7.86 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.62 GRN
Shefford BLQ - 41.46 LIB, 36.01 BLQ, 17.58 CON, 2.52 NDP, 2.42 PPC
Sherbrooke LIB - 44.64 LIB, 22.85 BLQ, 17.95 CON, 10.12 NDP, 3.21 GRN, 1.22 PPC
Monteregie (11 seats):
Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntington BLQ - 42.24 BLQ, 34.42 LIB, 17.02 CON, 3.62 NDP, 2.21 PPC, 0.58 GRN
Beloeil--Chambly (BLQ Leader) BLQ - 47.72 BLQ, 31.51 LIB, 13.88 CON, 5.87 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Brossard--Saint-Lambert LIB - 61.19 LIB, 17.09 CON, 13.73 BLQ, 6.51 NDP, 1.19 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Chateauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville BLQ - 43.55 LIB, 30.50 BLQ, 17.41 CON, 4.03 NDP, 2.61 PPC, 1.90 GRN
La Prairie--Atateken BLQ - 41.44 LIB, 37.26 BLQ, 14.78 CON, 3.36 NDP, 1.19 GRN, 1.27 PPC
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne LIB - 48.24 LIB, 29.05 BLQ, 13.41 CON, 7.55 NDP, 1.61 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert BLQ - 46.46 LIB, 35.15 BLQ, 12.97 CON, 5.43 NDP
Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie BLQ - 40.95 LIB, 38.97 BLQ, 14.54 CON, 4.37 NDP, 0.78 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Vercheres BLQ - 48.14 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 14.01 CON, 4.00 NDP, 0.75 PPC
Saint-Jean BLQ - 40.01 BLQ, 35.42 LIB, 18.05 CON, 3.60 NDP, 2.64 GRN, 0.29 PPC
Vaudreuil LIB - 54.39 LIB, 21.34 CON, 14.44 BLQ, 6.71 NDP, 2.77 GRN, 0.35 PPC
Eastern Montreal (9 seats):
Ahuntsic--Cartierville LIB - 59.75 LIB, 16.45 BLQ, 14.04 CON, 9.23 NDP 0.54 OTH
Bourassa LIB - 67.98 LIB, 12.39 BLQ, 12.05 CON, 4.96 NDP, 2.33 PPC, 0.30 OTH
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est LIB - 45.45 LIB, 25.23 BLQ, 16.41 NDP, 10.39 CON, 2.28 GRN, 0.25 OTH
Honore-Mercier LIB - 66.71 LIB, 15.29 CON, 10.02 BLQ, 3.37 NDP, 2.86 PPC, 1.74 GRN
La Pointe-de-l'Ile BLQ - 40.43 BLQ, 39.41 LIB, 12.74 CON, 5.82 NDP, 1.31 OTH, 0.30 GRN
Laurier--Sainte-Marie LIB - 46.59 LIB, 26.40 NDP, 13.89 BLQ, 9.56 CON, 2.47 GRN, 0.65 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Papineau LIB - 58.47 LIB, 20.21 NDP, 10.10 CON, 8.91 BLQ, 1.29 OTH, 1.02 PPC
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie NDP - 44.41 NDP, 29.99 LIB, 14.90 BLQ, 8.14 CON, 2.57 GRN
Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel LIB - 75.80 LIB, 14.63 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.87 BLQ, 2.43 PPC
Western Montreal (9 seats):
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle LIB - 58.83 LIB, 16.53 CON, 9.45 BLQ, 9.19 NDP, 3.07 GRN, 2.87 PPC, 0.06 OTH
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB - 60.99 LIB, 21.65 CON, 9.36 NDP, 3.48 GRN, 2.88 BLQ, 1.64 PPC
LaSalle-Emard--Verdun BLQ - 44.10 LIB, 17.99 BLQ, 17.82 NDP, 14.25 CON, 2.77 GRN, 2.12 OTH, 0.94 PPC
Mount Royal LIB - 62.79 LIB, 27.58 CON, 6.26 NDP, 2.85 BLQ, 0.52 OTH
Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount LIB - 58.10 LIB, 17.38 CON, 13.31 NDP, 7.11 GRN, 2.90 BLQ, 1.10 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Outremont (GRN co-Leader) LIB - 51.37 LIB, 16.88 GRN, 12.89 CON, 9.69 NDP, 9.18 BLQ
Pierrefonds--Dollard LIB - 61.98 LIB, 24.75 CON, 7.70 NDP, 3.00 BLQ, 2.39 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Saint-Laurent  LIB - 65.45 LIB, 22.35 CON, 6.81 NDP, 3.12 BLQ, 1.83 PPC, 0.36 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Ville-Marie--Le-Sud-Ouest--Ile-des-Soeurs LIB - 58.50 LIB, 18.79 CON, 13.85 NDP, 5.58 BLQ, 2.98 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Laval (4 seats):
Alfred-Pellan LIB - 55.57 LIB, 20.63 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.89 NDP, 0.28 PPC
Laval-Les Iles LIB - 56.71 LIB, 25.52 CON, 13.06 BLQ, 4.70 NDP
Marc-Aurele-Fortin LIB - 51.63 LIB, 24.96 BLQ, 18.26 CON, 5.15 NDP
Vimy LIB - 57.30 LIB, 20.96 CON, 16.11 BLQ, 5.63 NDP
Laurentides--Outaouais--Northern Quebec (13 seats):
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BLQ - 34.47 LIB, 32.61 BLQ, 23.50 CON, 9.42 NDP
Abitibi--Temiscamingue BLQ - 44.48 BLQ, 31.82 LIB, 18.28 CON, 3.07 NDP, 2.37 OTH
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation LIB - 46.32 LIB, 26.59 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.53 PPC, 3.25 NDP, 0.69 GRN
Gatineau LIB - 57.73 LIB, 17.23 BLQ, 16.22 CON, 5.46 NDP, 2.72 PPC, 0.63 OTH
Hull--Aylmer LIB - 59.49 LIB, 15.84 CON, 9.82 BLQ, 8.81 NDP, 3.06 GRN, 2.33 PPC, 0.64 OTH
Laurentides--Labelle BLQ - 46.39 BLQ, 30.66 LIB, 15.76 CON, 2.87 GRN, 2.52 PPC, 1.80 NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut BLQ - 41.54 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 16.93 CON, 3.25 PPC, 3.18 NDP, 2.00 GRN
Mirabel BLQ - 39.60 BLQ, 31.75 LIB, 18.57 CON, 4.84 NDP, 2.66 PPC, 2.58 GRN
Pontiac-Kitigan Zibi LIB - 50.89 LIB, 26.48 CON, 8.88 BLQ, 7.43 NDP, 3.16 GRN, 3.15 PPC
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles BLQ - 42.37 LIB, 34.34 BLQ, 15.25 CON, 3.28 NDP, 2.06 GRN, 1.40 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Riviere-du-Nord BLQ - 46.07 BLQ, 30.43 LIB, 19.53 CON, 3.96 NDP
Terrebonne BLQ - 37.54 LIB, 36.38 BLQ, 16.72 CON, 3.92 NDP, 2.87 GRN, 2.56 PPC
Therese-De Blainville BLQ - 43.10 LIB, 34.80 BLQ, 16.31 CON, 4.35 NDP, 1.44 PPC
Ontario (122 seats)
Ottawa (8 seats):
Carleton (CON Leader) CON - 56.45 CON, 39.77 LIB, 1.93 GRN, 1.57 NDP, 0.28 OTH
Kanata LIB - 51.78 LIB, 40.50 CON, 5.16 NDP, 2.29 GRN, 0.27 OTH
Nepean (LIB Leader) LIB - 53.62 LIB, 37.71 CON, 6.54 NDP, 1.75 GRN, 0.38 PPC
Orleans LIB - 60.21 LIB, 32.95 CON, 4.83 NDP, 1.43 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Ottawa Centre LIB - 53.38 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 20.06 CON, 2.54 GRN, 0.90 OTH
Ottawa South LIB - 57.98 LIB, 31.22 CON, 8.31 NDP, 1.96 GRN, 0.53 OTH
Ottawa West--Nepean LIB - 53.81 LIB, 32.62 CON, 10.46 NDP, 2.70 GRN, 0.27 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester LIB - 57.33 LIB, 25.61 CON, 13.56 NDP, 2.86 GRN, 0.36 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Eastern Ontario (8 seats):
Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke CON - 56.99 CON, 27.82 LIB, 11.45 NDP, 1.88 OTH, 1.86 GRN
Bay of Quinte CON - 46.27 CON, 45.64 LIB, 5.85 NDP, 2.24 GRN
Hastings--Lenox and Addington--Tyendinaga CON - 51.08 CON, 43.15 LIB, 2.04 PPC, 1.98 GRN, 1.75 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB - 49.17 LIB, 29.26 CON, 19.22 NDP, 2.35 GRN
Lanark--Frontenac CON - 56.62 CON, 34.48 LIB, 5.99 NDP, 2.92 GRN
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON - 55.63 CON, 33.65 LIB, 5.40 NDP, 3.52 GRN, 1.81 PPC
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland LIB - 55.65 LIB, 37.35 CON, 2.38 PPC, 1.84 GRN, 1.64 OTH, 1.14 NDP
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry CON - 61.92 CON, 33.13 LIB, 2.27 GRN, 1.35 NDP, 1.33 OTH
Central Ontario (10 seats):
Barrie South--Innisfil CON - 52.78 CON, 37.29 LIB, 6.16 NDP, 3.77 PPC
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte CON - 52.85 CON, 38.82 LIB, 7.06 NDP, 1.13 OTH, 0.14 GRN
Bruce--Grey--Owen South CON - 54.18 CON, 33.58 LIB, 4.02 PPC, 3.94 NDP, 2.88 GRN, 1.42 OTH
Dufferin--Caledon CON - 54.15 CON, 36.78 LIB, 4.36 GRN, 3.15 PPC, 0.85 OTH, 0.71 NDP
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CON - 57.52 CON, 33.36 LIB, 5.91 NDP, 3.21 PPC
New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury CON - 52.77 CON, 38.88 LIB, 3.62 PPC, 3.53 NDP, 1.20 GRN
Northumberland--Clarke CON - 48.96 CON, 42.37 LIB, 4.30 NDP, 2.39 GRN, 1.46 PPC, 0.52 OTH
Peterborough CON - 44.18 CON, 43.17 LIB, 9.53 NDP, 2.04 GRN, 0.80 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Simcoe North CON - 47.11 CON, 39.21 LIB, 6.33 NDP, 3.64 PPC, 2.87 GRN, 0.84 OTH
Simcoe--Grey CON - 52.61 CON, 36.42 LIB, 4.17 GRN, 3.70 NDP, 3.09 PPC
Durham--York (15 seats):
Ajax LIB - 64.66 LIB, 28.42 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.17 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill LIB - 52.61 LIB, 46.62 CON, 0.31 NDP, 0.28 PPC, 0.19 GRN
Bowmanville--Oshawa North CON - 55.10 CON, 36.13 LIB, 5.82 NDP, 2.30 OTH, 0.65 GRN
King--Vaughan CON - 49.72 LIB, 48.58 CON, 1.08 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.27 NDP
Markham--Stouffville LIB - 58.83 LIB, 38.48 CON, 1.80 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.21 NDP
Markham--Thornhill LIB - 68.75 LIB, 29.63 CON, 1.05 NDP, 0.40 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Markham--Unionville LIB - 54.45 LIB, 42.82 CON, 2.42 GRN, 0.31 NDP
Newmarket--Aurora LIB - 53.09 LIB, 43.83 CON, 3.07 NDP
Oshawa CON - 47.15 CON, 31.84 LIB, 19.25 NDP, 1.75 GRN
Pickering--Brooklin LIB - 56.45 LIB, 38.98 CON, 3.81 NDP, 0.35 PPC, 0.34 OTH, 0.06 GRN
Richmond Hill South LIB - 55.82 LIB, 43.34 CON, 0.33 PPC, 0.26 NDP, 0.22 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Thornhill CON - 55.07 CON, 42.52 LIB, 1.47 GRN, 0.58 PPC, 0.37 NDP
Vaughan--Woodbridge LIB - 54.09 LIB, 44.38 CON, 1.36 PPC, 0.17 NDP
Whitby LIB - 53.49 LIB, 39.65 CON, 4.82 NDP, 1.45 GRN, 0.60 OTH
York--Durham CON - 57.18 CON, 36.74 LIB, 3.04 NDP, 2.50 PPC, 0.53 GRN
Suburban Toronto (13 seats):
Don Valley North LIB - 60.76 LIB, 36.90 CON, 1.61 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 NDP, 0.05 OTH
Etobicoke Centre LIB - 56.98 LIB, 41.36 CON, 1.66 NDP
Etobicoke North LIB - 67.26 LIB, 30.31 CON, 1.05 OTH, 0.95 NDP, 0.34 PPC, 0.09 GRN
Etobicoke--Lakeshore LIB - 56.09 LIB, 37.61 CON, 4.66 NDP, 1.26 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Humber River--Black Creek LIB - 69.37 LIB, 22.45 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 OTH
Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East LIB - 64.62 LIB, 30.51 CON, 4.40 NDP, 0.47 PPC
Scarborough North LIB - 75.60 LIB, 22.27 CON, 2.13 NDP
Scarborough Southwest LIB - 65.91 LIB, 25.07 CON, 6.39 NDP, 2.08 GRN, 0.34 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Scarborough--Agincourt LIB - 65.20 LIB, 33.59 CON, 1.21 NDP
Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park LIB - 69.55 LIB, 26.61 CON, 3.77 NDP, 0.08 GRN
Scarborough--Woburn LIB - 68.86 LIB, 26.75 CON, 3.42 NDP, 0.95 OTH, 0.03 GRN
Willowdale LIB - 60.26 LIB, 38.21 CON, 1.53 NDP
York Centre LIB - 55.81 LIB, 43.50 CON, 0.69 NDP
Central Toronto (11 seats):
Beaches--East York LIB - 64.64 LIB, 18.85 CON, 12.97 NDP, 2.51 GRN, 1.03 OTH
Davenport LIB - 51.94 LIB, 29.86 NDP, 15.32 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Don Valley West LIB - 64.93 LIB, 33.80 CON, 0.81 GRN, 0.34 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Eglinton--Lawrence LIB - 55.86 LIB, 40.69 CON, 2.84 GRN, 0.42 PPC, 0.19 NDP
Spadina--Harbourfront LIB - 45.32 LIB, 26.65 CON, 24.15 NDP, 3.05 GRN, 0.45 PPC, 0.38 OTH
Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park LIB - 51.05 LIB, 28.83 NDP, 17.71 CON, 1.67 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Toronto Centre LIB - 58.01 LIB, 17.25 CON, 16.26 NDP, 7.82 GRN, 0.39 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Toronto--Danforth LIB - 56.65 LIB, 23.93 NDP, 16.48 CON, 1.71 GRN, 1.21 OTH
Toronto--St. Paul's CON - 53.84 LIB, 37.12 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.16 NDP, 0.33 PPC, 0.21 OTH
University--Rosedale LIB - 54.90 LIB, 21.90 CON, 18.24 NDP, 4.24 GRN, 0.72 OTH
York South--Weston--Etobicoke LIB - 65.03 LIB, 28.53 CON, 6.45 NDP
Peel (12 seats):
Brampton Centre LIB - 56.49 LIB, 36.48 CON, 6.19 NDP, 0.50 PPC, 0.24 OTH, 0.10 GRN
Brampton East LIB - 60.70 LIB, 32.76 CON, 5.85 NDP, 0.46 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Brampton North--Caledon LIB - 58.54 LIB, 36.69 CON, 4.35 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Brampton South LIB - 61.75 LIB, 33.80 CON, 3.76 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Brampton West LIB - 64.61 LIB, 31.65 CON, 3.05 NDP, 0.63 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Brampton--Chinguacousy Park LIB - 57.72 LIB, 34.58 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.37 PPC, 0.08 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Mississauga Centre LIB - 62.68 LIB, 33.93 CON, 2.28 NDP, 0.91 OTH, 0.20 PPC
Mississauga East--Cooksville LIB - 58.62 LIB, 36.63 CON, 2.43 PPC, 1.39 OTH, 0.93 NDP
Mississauga--Erin Mills LIB - 59.13 LIB, 38.08 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.66 NDP, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH
Mississauga--Lakeshore LIB - 54.62 LIB, 42.49 CON, 2.32 GRN, 0.40 PPC, 0.12 NDP, 0.06 OTH
Mississauga--Malton LIB - 60.31 LIB, 34.45 CON, 4.79 NDP, 0.45 PPC
Mississauga--Streetsville LIB - 55.73 LIB, 39.42 CON, 2.48 NDP, 2.01 GRN, 0.37 PPC
Hamilton--Halton--Niagara (14 seats):
Burlington LIB - 54.08 LIB, 42.25 CON, 1.79 GRN, 1.21 NDP, 0.41 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Burlington North--Milton West LIB - 56.81 LIB, 41.97 CON, 0.91 NDP, 0.30 PPC
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North CON - 49.21 CON, 40.77 LIB, 4.94 NDP, 2.68 PPC, 2.40 GRN
Hamilton Centre NDP - 37.49 NDP, 34.94 LIB, 21.47 CON, 2.54 PPC, 2.48 GRN, 1.09 OTH
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek LIB - 48.42 LIB, 35.35 CON, 12.79 NDP, 3.45 PPC
Hamilton Mountain LIB - 43.53 LIB, 30.20 CON, 22.58 NDP, 2.26 PPC, 1.43 OTH
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas LIB - 52.63 LIB, 34.12 CON, 10.02 NDP, 2.41 GRN, 0.42 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Milton East--Halton Hills South LIB - 50.31 LIB, 46.05 CON, 2.37 GRN, 0.84 PPC, 0.31 NDP, 0.13 OTH
Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake CON - 43.56 LIB, 42.40 CON, 8.20 NDP, 3.55 PPC, 1.76 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara South CON - 41.27 LIB, 38.43 CON, 13.15 NDP, 4.92 PPC, 1.71 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara West CON - 49.17 CON, 40.25 LIB, 5.47 NDP, 3.06 PPC, 2.04 OTH
Oakville East LIB - 53.88 LIB, 43.86 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.33 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.16 NDP
Oakville West LIB - 55.16 LIB, 42.59 CON, 1.53 GRN, 0.37 PPC, 0.22 NDP, 0.12 OTH
St. Catharines LIB - 46.80 LIB, 37.48 CON, 12.33 NDP, 2.57 PPC, 0.82 OTH

Midwestern Ontario (12 seats):
Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations CON - 45.27 CON, 35.99 LIB, 10.52 NDP, 4.75 PPC, 2.46 GRN, 1.01 OTH
Cambridge LIB - 46.69 LIB, 41.28 CON, 7.56 NDP, 3.33 GRN, 1.15 OTH
Guelph LIB - 49.59 LIB, 28.42 CON, 12.48 NDP, 7.69 GRN, 1.18 OTH, 0.64 PPC
Haldimand--Norfolk CON - 52.39 CON, 35.86 LIB, 6.47 PPC, 3.64 NDP, 1.50 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Huron--Bruce CON - 58.16 CON, 34.61 LIB, 5.27 NDP, 1.85 OTH, 0.11 GRN
Kitchener Centre GRN - 33.14 GRN, 29.87 CON, 25.69 LIB, 7.85 NDP, 2.64 PPC, 0.80 OTH
Kitchener South--Hespeler LIB - 45.80 LIB, 40.54 CON, 6.62 NDP, 3.26 GRN, 2.72 PPC, 1.06 OTH
Kitchener--Conestoga LIB - 48.48 LIB, 43.25 CON, 4.72 NDP, 3.55 PPC
Oxford CON - 50.26 CON, 35.20 LIB, 5.65 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 2.84 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Perth--Wellington CON - 53.66 CON, 33.03 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 5.74 PPC
Waterloo LIB - 53.89 LIB, 32.38 CON, 9.48 NDP, 3.23 GRN, 0.52 OTH, 0.50 PPC
Wellington--Halton Hills North CON - 51.96 CON, 38.83 LIB, 4.64 GRN, 2.30 NDP, 2.27 PPC

Southwestern Ontario (10 seats):
Chatham-Kent--Leamington CON - 47.52 CON, 35.18 LIB, 10.81 PPC, 5.06 NDP, 1.43 GRN
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South CON - 54.70 CON, 28.97 LIB, 8.55 PPC, 7.78 NDP
Essex CON - 46.33 CON, 24.42 LIB, 22.78 NDP, 6.47 PPC
London Centre LIB - 46.00 LIB, 29.75 CON, 20.72 NDP, 1.77 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.67 OTH
London West LIB - 45.18 LIB, 39.88 CON, 13.27 NDP, 1.46 OTH, 0.21 GRN
London--Fanshawe NDP - 33.83 NDP, 31.51 LIB, 29.39 CON, 5.27 PPC
Middlesex--London CON - 50.91 CON, 35.39 LIB, 7.60 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN, 0.71 OTH
Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong CON - 51.79 CON, 28.19 LIB, 11.62 NDP, 7.01 PPC, 1.39 OTH
Windsor West NDP - 36.12 LIB, 34.59 NDP, 24.34 CON, 4.32 PPC, 0.61 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore LIB - 39.35 LIB, 31.94 CON, 20.60 NDP, 6.27 PPC, 1.02 GRN, 0.82 OTH
Northern Ontario (9 seats):
Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk NDP - 34.94 LIB, 30.21 CON, 26.43 NDP, 8.41 PPC
Kenora--Kiiwetinoong CON - 48.38 CON, 28.19 LIB, 19.32 NDP, 2.37 PPC, 1.21 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Nipissing--Timiskaming LIB - 45.14 LIB, 36.94 CON, 13.74 NDP, 3.95 PPC, 0.23 GRN
Parry Sound--Muskoka CON - 53.78 CON, 32.24 LIB, 9.97 NDP, 4.01 PPC
Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma CON - 41.59 CON, 40.73 LIB, 16.15 NDP, 1.04 OTH, 0.50 GRN
Sudbury LIB - 44.26 LIB, 33.15 CON, 20.29 NDP, 2.30 PPC
Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt LIB - 40.22 LIB, 31.96 CON, 20.68 NDP, 4.94 PPC, 1.54 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LIB - 42.71 LIB, 34.39 CON, 18.90 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 1.35 GRN
Thunder Bay--Superior North LIB - 48.93 LIB, 29.00 CON, 18.30 NDP, 2.03 PPC, 1.74 GRN
Prairies (28 seats)
Rural Manitoba (6 seats):
Brandon--Souris CON - 61.52 CON, 28.70 LIB, 9.78 NDP
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP - 42.44 LIB, 32.82 NDP, 24.62 CON, 0.12 PPC
Portage--Lisgar CON - 57.93 CON, 26.67 LIB, 14.01 PPC, 1.10 GRN, 0.28 NDP
Provencher CON - 49.11 CON, 33.63 LIB, 12.02 PPC, 3.11 GRN, 2.13 NDP
Riding Mountain CON - 59.58 CON, 29.52 LIB, 4.62 PPC, 4.03 NDP, 2.25 GRN
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman CON - 57.09 CON, 29.72 LIB, 8.71 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.50 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Winnipeg (8 seats):
Elmwood--Transcona NDP - 37.38 NDP, 34.56 CON, 26.81 LIB, 0.99 GRN, 0.26 PPC
Kildonan--St. Paul CON - 44.38 LIB, 42.40 CON, 13.04 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital LIB - 60.62 LIB, 28.33 CON, 10.87 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Winnipeg Centre NDP - 45.28 LIB, 38.92 NDP, 12.82 CON, 2.43 GRN, 0.38 OTH, 0.16 PPC
Winnipeg North LIB - 69.19 LIB, 16.06 NDP, 12.88 CON, 1.24 GRN, 0.32 PPC, 0.31 OTH
Winnipeg South LIB - 63.34 LIB, 31.27 CON, 3.77 NDP, 1.52 GRN, 0.09 PPC
Winnipeg South Centre LIB - 63.69 LIB, 25.09 CON, 8.05 NDP, 2.71 GRN, 0.33 OTH, 0.13 PPC 
Winnipeg West CON - 55.22 LIB, 38.73 CON, 4.07 NDP, 1.98 GRN
Southern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan CON - 61.47 CON, 22.95 LIB, 8.69 NDP, 5.55 PPC, 1.33 GRN
Regina--Lewvan CON - 45.49 CON, 29.89 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 1.27 GRN, 0.23 PPC 
Regina--Qu'Appelle CON - 60.11 CON, 27.07 LIB, 12.58 NDP, 0.24 PPC
Regina--Wascana CON - 48.73 CON, 42.07 LIB, 7.48 NDP, 1.65 GRN, 0.08 PPC
Souris--Moose Mountain CON - 78.43 CON, 20.92 LIB, 0.22 NDP, 0.22 GRN, 0.21 OTH
Swift Current-Grasslands--Kindersley CON - 73.88 CON, 21.05 LIB, 4.96 OTH, 0.11 NDP
Yorkton--Melville CON - 71.19 CON, 23.04 LIB, 2.20 OTH, 1.88 GRN, 1.69 NDP
Northern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake CON - 66.62 CON, 24.30 LIB, 5.28 OTH, 3.81 NDP
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek CON - 71.71 CON, 23.44 LIB, 4.85 NDP
Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River LIB - 59.04 LIB, 26.12 CON, 14.83 NDP
Prince Albert CON - 65.18 CON, 29.29 LIB, 5.53 NDP
Saskatoon South CON - 48.71 CON, 30.39 LIB, 19.53 NDP, 1.26 GRN, 0.10 PPC
Saskatoon West CON - 45.54 CON, 28.60 NDP, 24.70 LIB, 1.08 GRN, 0.07 PPC
Saskatoon--University CON - 46.98 CON, 27.43 LIB, 24.68 NDP, 0.91 GRN
Alberta (37 seats)
Northern Alberta (8 seats):
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CON - 71.57 CON, 19.24 LIB, 7.52 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.22 NDP, 0.20 OTH
Grande Prairie CON - 73.15 CON, 16.55 LIB, 5.03 PPC, 3.47 OTH, 1.81 NDP
Lakeland CON - 73.53 CON, 17.24 LIB, 5.87 PPC, 1.84 OTH, 1.14 GRN, 0.37 NDP
Leduc--Wetaskiwin CON - 67.42 CON, 18.86 LIB, 7.51 NDP, 6.07 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Parkland CON - 67.26 CON, 18.46 LIB, 6.14 PPC, 6.11 NDP, 1.77 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Peace River--Westlock CON - 71.89 CON, 18.34 LIB, 6.02 OTH, 3.75 NDP
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan CON - 61.68 CON, 24.50 LIB, 10.50 NDP, 1.83 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.24 OTH
St. Albert--Sturgeon River CON - 60.30 CON, 23.48 LIB, 13.40 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 0.18 OTH
Edmonton (9 seats):
Edmonton Centre CON - 42.99 LIB, 36.10 CON, 19.88 NDP, 0.69 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Edmonton Gateway CON - 47.05 CON, 37.96 LIB, 10.51 NDP, 3.55 OTH, 0.93 PPC
Edmonton Greisbach NDP - 40.15 CON, 30.02 NDP, 27.27 LIB, 1.40 GRN, 0.74 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Edmonton Manning CON - 44.89 CON, 32.56 LIB, 20.70 NDP, 1.84 PPC
Edmonton Northwest CON - 46.50 CON, 34.76 LIB, 17.39 NDP, 1.06 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Edmonton Riverbend CON - 48.54 CON, 36.86 LIB, 13.97 NDP, 0.64 PPC
Edmonton Southeast CON - 45.78 LIB, 41.03 CON, 11.56 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.68 OTH
Edmonton Strathcona NDP - 46.89 NDP, 30.02 CON, 20.41 LIB, 1.51 GRN, 0.77 PPC, 0.39 OTH
Edmonton West CON - 49.02 CON, 35.98 LIB, 13.69 NDP, 0.91 PPC, 0.40 OTH
Calgary (11 seats):
Calgary Centre CON - 51.65 CON, 39.11 LIB, 6.29 NDP, 1.89 GRN, 0.71 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Calgary Confederation CON - 48.55 CON, 39.06 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 3.96 GRN, 0.64 PPC, 0.21 OTH
Calgary Crowfoot CON - 58.05 CON, 32.83 LIB, 6.03 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.89 PPC, 0.25 OTH
Calgary East CON - 56.75 CON, 30.50 LIB, 7.99 NDP, 2.93 GRN, 2.02 PPC, 0.34 OTH
Calgary Heritage CON - 64.10 CON, 27.91 LIB, 6.17 NDP, 1.73 GRN, 0.09 OTH
Calgary McKnight LIB - 54.59 LIB, 36.64 CON, 5.99 NDP, 1.39 GRN, 0.87 PPC, 0.51 OTH
Calgary Midnapore CON - 64.31 CON, 24.71 LIB, 8.45 NDP, 1.61 GRN, 0.91 PPC
Calgary Nose Hill CON - 59.16 CON, 32.07 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 1.87 GRN, 0.08 OTH
Calgary Shepard CON - 65.29 CON, 26.14 LIB, 5.88 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Calgary Signal Hill CON - 63.01 CON, 31.07 LIB, 4.76 NDP, 0.87 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Calgary Skyview CON - 47.43 CON, 45.42 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 0.32 OTH
Southern Alberta (9 seats):
Airdrie--Cochrane CON - 66.52 CON, 22.84 LIB, 5.46 NDP, 5.18 OTH
Battle River--Crowfoot CON - 76.08 CON, 17.08 LIB, 4.68 PPC, 1.73 GRN, 0.43 NDP
Bow River CON - 76.92 CON, 20.38 LIB, 2.34 OTH, 0.36 NDP
Foothills CON - 73.02 CON, 19.69 LIB, 3.50 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 1.74 NDP
Lethbridge CON - 59.78 CON, 27.42 LIB, 9.17 NDP, 1.77 PPC, 1.61 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner CON - 73.32 CON, 19.96 LIB, 4.41 NDP, 2.31 GRN
Ponoka--Didsbury CON - 73.54 CON, 9.06 OTH, 9.05 NDP, 8.34 PPC
Red Deer CON - 64.40 CON, 20.59 LIB, 7.39 NDP, 6.04 PPC, 1.32 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Yellowhead CON - 64.13 CON, 23.63 LIB, 5.32 NDP, 3.99 PPC, 2.93 OTH
British Columbia (43 seats)
BC Interior (10 seats):
Cariboo--Prince George CON - 57.34 CON, 29.94 LIB, 4.99 NDP, 4.97 PPC, 1.86 GRN, 0.89 OTH
Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies CON - 49.76 CON, 22.61 LIB, 21.33 NDP, 3.82 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies CON - 51.15 CON, 30.41 LIB, 9.94 NDP, 4.88 PPC, 3.62 GRN
Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola CON - 49.68 CON, 31.59 LIB, 13.56 NDP, 2.87 PPC, 2.30 GRN
Kelowna CON - 51.08 CON, 40.50 LIB, 6.56 NDP, 1.86 GRN
Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna CON - 54.47 CON, 37.05 LIB, 3.47 NDP, 3.45 PPC, 1.13 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies CON - 65.63 CON, 23.33 LIB, 7.45 PPC, 2.20 GRN, 1.39 NDP
Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay NDP - 43.80 CON, 27.13 LIB, 23.61 NDP, 3.66 PPC, 1.80 GRN
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP - 45.22 CON, 27.50 NDP, 21.53 LIB, 3.43 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee CON - 54.49 CON, 33.99 LIB, 7.26 NDP, 4.25 GRN
Fraser Valley--Southern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Abbotsford--South Langley CON - 32.90 CON, 31.65 LIB, 27.26 OTH, 3.73 PPC, 2.97 NDP, 1.50 GRN
Chilliwack--Hope CON - 51.92 CON, 30.98 LIB, 11.12 NDP, 4.36 PPC, 1.19 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Cloverdale--Langley City CON - 48.88 CON, 46.87 LIB, 2.93 NDP, 1.07 PPC, 0.26 GRN
Delta LIB - 56.32 LIB, 39.24 CON, 3.46 NDP, 0.98 PPC
Fleetwood--Port Kells LIB - 47.71 LIB, 45.89 CON, 5.05 NDP, 1.05 PPC, 0.30 GRN
Langley Township--Fraser Heights CON - 49.99 CON, 43.24 LIB, 4.28 NDP, 1.21 PPC, 0.81 GRN, 0.47 OTH
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford CON - 53.47 CON, 37.88 LIB, 3.75 PPC, 2.75 NDP, 2.14 GRN
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge CON - 43.12 CON, 37.90 LIB, 15.45 NDP, 2.24 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Richmond Centre--Marpole LIB - 51.65 LIB, 40.84 CON, 4.93 NDP, 1.50 GRN, 1.08 PPC
Richmond East--Steveston LIB - 55.63 LIB, 39.44 CON, 4.18 NDP, 0.75 GRN
South Surrey--White Rock CON - 51.32 LIB, 47.52 CON, 0.97 NDP, 0.18 GRN
Surrey Centre LIB - 44.27 LIB, 40.76 CON, 12.37 NDP, 1.09 PPC, 0.93 OTH, 0.59 GRN
Surrey--Newton LIB - 53.27 LIB, 34.98 CON, 10.14 NDP, 1.61 OTH
Vancouver--Northern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Burnaby Central (NDP Leader) NDP - 45.46 LIB, 28.24 CON, 25.14 NDP, 1.17 PPC
Burnaby North--Seymour LIB - 54.99 LIB, 32.44 CON, 11.67 NDP, 0.90 PPC
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam LIB - 51.23 LIB, 36.42 CON, 12.04 NDP, 0.23 OTH, 0.09 GRN
New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville NDP - 37.03 LIB, 32.83 NDP, 27.38 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.55 OTH
North Vancouver--Capilano LIB - 57.82 LIB, 34.93 CON, 3.48 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.08 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Port Moody--Coquitlam NDP - 42.86 LIB, 37.64 CON, 19.36 NDP, 0.07 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Vancouver Centre LIB - 53.99 LIB, 27.51 CON, 14.58 NDP, 2.18 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.65 OTH
Vancouver East NDP - 41.13 NDP, 33.49 LIB, 16.90 CON, 6.09 GRN, 1.27 OTH, 1.12 PPC
Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby LIB - 55.72 LIB, 27.55 CON, 15.58 NDP, 1.07 OTH 
Vancouver Granville LIB - 50.96 LIB, 29.99 CON, 17.87 NDP, 1.18 GRN
Vancouver Kingsway NDP - 42.39 LIB, 34.86 NDP, 19.75 CON, 2.00 GRN, 1.00 PPC
Vancouver Quadra LIB - 56.23 LIB, 34.40 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.05 NDP, 0.98 PPC
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country LIB - 46.58 LIB, 34.90 CON, 11.99 NDP, 5.24 GRN, 1.03 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Vancouver Island (7 seats):
Courtenay--Alberni NDP - 37.37 CON, 27.65 NDP, 27.35 LIB, 5.35 GRN, 1.70 PPC, 0.58 OTH
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford NDP - 36.68 CON, 30.45 LIB, 27.89 NDP, 4.98 GRN
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke NDP - 35.63 LIB, 28.14 NDP, 27.83 CON, 7.32 GRN, 1.08 OTH
Nanaimo--Ladysmith NDP - 32.62 CON, 26.96 LIB, 24.34 GRN, 14.27 NDP, 1.81 PPC
North Island--Powell River NDP - 42.30 CON, 27.07 LIB, 24.06 NDP, 4.26 GRN, 1.29 PPC, 1.02 OTH
Saanich--Gulf Islands (GRN co-Leader) GRN - 34.26 GRN, 32.71 LIB, 28.69 CON, 4.32 NDP
Victoria NDP - 40.99 LIB, 28.63 NDP, 19.72 CON, 9.57 GRN, 1.01 PPC, 0.07 OTH
Territories (3 seats)
Nunavut NDP - 51.71 LIB, 36.29 NDP, 12.01 CON
Northwest Territories LIB - 52.92 LIB, 24.59 NDP, 17.54 CON, 4.96 GRN
Yukon LIB - 50.32 LIB, 33.34 CON, 10.39 NDP, 5.95 GRN

Dalimbar will participate 

RWC5 Day Eleven (Medals)
A     B Teralyon (53.36) 10 (+4) 10 (+1) Ryxtylopia (52.84+3) Zoran (62.15) 20 19 Overthinkers (57.86+3) Zoran - 63.89 Overthinkers - 56.12 United Adaikes - 54.12 Teralyon - 53.86 Cambria - 53.42 Ostronia - 52.37 Ryxtylopia - 52.35 Dalimbar - 51.78 Giovanniland - 50.31 Fujai - 50.28 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 50.06 Mygrdiyah - 48.72 Nouveauterra - 48.39 Nalibia - 48.14 Sekiya - 47.83 Saint Mark - 47.28 Arifiyyah - 47.03 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 45.92 Min-Su - 45.84 Peourouin - 45.54 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Larxia - 44.79 Rivalfiume - 44.67 Nieubasria - 43.50 Avadonialis - 43.38 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Varanius - 41.40 New Velka - 41.24 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 39.81 Denieria - 39.61 Won the Gold medal. Won the Silver medal. Won the Bronze medal.

RWC5 Day Eleven (Medals)
A     B Teralyon (53.36) 10 (+4) 10 (+1) Ryxtylopia (52.84+3) Zoran (62.15) 20 19 Overthinkers (57.86+3) Zoran - 63.89 Overthinkers - 56.12 United Adaikes - 54.12 Teralyon - 53.86 Cambria - 53.42 Ostronia - 52.37 Ryxtylopia - 52.35 Dalimbar - 51.78 Giovanniland - 50.31 Fujai - 50.28 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 50.06 Mygrdiyah - 48.72 Nouveauterra - 48.39 Nalibia - 48.14 Sekiya - 47.83 Saint Mark - 47.28 Arifiyyah - 47.03 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 45.92 Min-Su - 45.84 Peourouin - 45.54 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Larxia - 44.79 Rivalfiume - 44.67 Nieubasria - 43.50 Avadonialis - 43.38 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Varanius - 41.40 New Velka - 41.24 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 39.81 Denieria - 39.61 Won the Gold medal. Won the Silver medal. Won the Bronze medal.

RWC5 Day Eleven (Medals)
A     B Teralyon (53.36) 10 (+4) 10 (+1) Ryxtylopia (52.84+3) Zoran (62.15) 20 19 Overthinkers (57.86+3) Zoran - 63.89 Overthinkers - 56.12 United Adaikes - 54.12 Teralyon - 53.86 Cambria - 53.42 Ostronia - 52.37 Ryxtylopia - 52.35 Dalimbar - 51.78 Giovanniland - 50.31 Fujai - 50.28 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 50.06 Mygrdiyah - 48.72 Nouveauterra - 48.39 Nalibia - 48.14 Sekiya - 47.83 Saint Mark - 47.28 Arifiyyah - 47.03 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 45.92 Min-Su - 45.84 Peourouin - 45.54 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Larxia - 44.79 Rivalfiume - 44.67 Nieubasria - 43.50 Avadonialis - 43.38 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Varanius - 41.40 New Velka - 41.24 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 39.81 Denieria - 39.61 Won the Gold medal. Won the Silver medal. Won the Bronze medal.

RWC5 Day Eleven (Medals)
A     B Teralyon (53.36) 10 (+4) 10 (+1) Ryxtylopia (52.84+3) Zoran (62.15) 20 19 Overthinkers (57.86+3) Zoran - 63.89 Overthinkers - 56.12 United Adaikes - 54.12 Teralyon - 53.86 Cambria - 53.42 Ostronia - 52.37 Ryxtylopia - 52.35 Dalimbar - 51.78 Giovanniland - 50.31 Fujai - 50.28 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 50.06 Mygrdiyah - 48.72 Nouveauterra - 48.39 Nalibia - 48.14 Sekiya - 47.83 Saint Mark - 47.28 Arifiyyah - 47.03 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 45.92 Min-Su - 45.84 Peourouin - 45.54 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Larxia - 44.79 Rivalfiume - 44.67 Nieubasria - 43.50 Avadonialis - 43.38 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Varanius - 41.40 New Velka - 41.24 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 39.81 Denieria - 39.61 Won the Gold medal. Won the Silver medal. Won the Bronze medal.

RWC5 - Day Ten (Semi-Finals)
A     B Ryxtylopia (54.33) 09 27 Overthinkers (56.38+3) Zoran (58.98) 27 06 Teralyon (56.53+3) Zoran - 62.15 Overthinkers - 57.86 United Adaikes - 54.21 Cambria - 53.42 Teralyon - 53.36 Ryxtylopia - 52.84 Ostronia - 52.37 Dalimbar - 51.78 Giovanniland - 50.31 Fujai - 50.28 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 50.06 Mygrdiyah - 48.72 Nouveauterra - 48.39 Nalibia - 48.14 Sekiya - 47.83 Saint Mark - 47.28 Arifiyyah - 47.03 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 45.92 Min-Su - 45.84 Peourouin - 45.54 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Larxia - 44.79 Rivalfiume - 44.67 Nieubasria - 43.50 Avadonialis - 43.38 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Varanius - 41.40 New Velka - 41.24 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 39.81 Denieria - 39.61 Nations in Gold have ensured qualification to the Gold Medal match. Nations in Bronze have ensured qualification to the Bronze Medal match.

Welcome to Dalimbar!
The Department of Sports is so proud that we are the hosts of Rugby World Cup 4. 
To ensure that rankings are correct, we were instructed to do an audit of previously published rankings. Inconsistencies found were rectified and the rankings presented through this page have been corrected. This has been done to ensure that any market activity with this information is not tainted with incorrect data. (This may have had something to do why Zoran and Dalimbar were in the mid-60s in RWC3).
Welcome new teams! New squads have been awarded with 45.00 points to start the tournament. We also have a nation returning to the tournament after missing last years, and will keep their points from last time they were competing. Finally, as per tradition, teams competing last year in Zoran but not here in Dalimbar will be italicized. 
Here's the Rugby Rankings going into the tournament:
Zoran - 62.61 Dalimbar - 57.04 Cambria - 55.07 Larxia - 53.48 Libterraria - 52.82 United Adaikes - 51.91 Fujai - 51.29 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Saint Mark - 49.87 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 49.20 Min-Su - 48.87 Giovanniland - 47.52 Nieubasria - 47.13 Dilber - 46.61 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Teralyon - 45.11 Aftokratoria - 45.00 Apexiala - 45.00 Arifiyyah - 45.00 Cyrylic - 45.00 Ionia - 45.00 Kalmach - 45.00 Ostronia - 45.00 Overthinkers - 45.00 Peourouin - 45.00 Rivalfiume - 45.00 Ryxtylopia - 45.00 Saranzio - 45.00 Sekiya - 45.00 Varanius - 45.00 Einherfell - 43.99 Denieria - 42.95 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Hanita Gracse - 41.76

Rugby is back, baby!  With the "big four" of rugby (Zoran, Dalimbar, Cambria, and United Adaikes) being able to sit back and watch their competition, the new squads and old alike were able to see out of them who could face the best in the sport.
Overthinkers is looking pretty good. They absolutely crushed returning team Libterraria 26-0, which is the widest spread since RWC2 Day 6 when Dalimbar beat... Libterraria by 27 points. Power move from the newcomers, who gained an impressive 4.45 points in the Rankings. 
Teralyon had a similar match against Sekiya, besting their opponents by 17, and gaining 3.87 points. Saint Mark also had a good day against Apexiala, blanking their opponents 15-0.
And then there were the two ties. Two strong teams, Larxia and Giovanniland, could not break their opponents and tied. Giovanniland had the misfortune of not even able to score... anything. Their opponent did not either, but that's not a great start to the tournament. Cheers to Ostronia and Saranzio for fending off their foes!
A     B Larxia (53.48) 22 22 Ostronia (45.00+3) Hertfordshire and Jammbo (49.20) 21 23 Ionia (45.00+3) Teralyon (45.11) 27 10 Sekiya (45.00+3) Saint Mark (49.87) 15 00 Apexiala (45.00+3) Giovanniland (47.52) 00 00 Saranzio (45.00+3) Varanius (45.00) 26 14 Rivalfiume (45.00+3) Libterraria (52.82) 00 26 Overthinkers (45.00+3) Nieubasria (47.13) 10 07 Peourouin (45.00+3) Einherfell (43.99) 15 16 Cyrylic (45.00+3) Fujai (51.29) 06 03 Ryxtylopia (45.00+3) Dilber (46.61) 10 06 Kalmach (45.00+3) Arifiyyah (45.00) 14 12 Aftokratoria (45.00+3) Day 1 Rankings:
Zoran - 62.61 Dalimbar - 57.04  Cambria - 55.07  Fujai - 52.63  Larxia - 52.38  United Adaikes - 51.91 Saint Mark - 51.50 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Overthinkers - 49.45 Nieubasria - 49.30 Teralyon - 48.98 Dilber - 48.89 Min-Su - 48.87 Libterraria - 48.37 Giovanniland - 47.62 Varanius - 47.60 Arifiyyah - 47.60 Ionia - 47.24 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 46.96 Cyrylic - 46.20 Ostronia - 46.10 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Saranzio - 44.90 Ryztylopia - 43.66 Apexiala - 43.37 Denieria - 42.95 Peourouin - 42.83 Einherfell - 42.79 Kalmach - 42.72 Rivalfiume - 42.40 Aftokratoria - 42.40 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Sekiya - 41.13

Day 2 saw the introduction of the "big four" of Zoran, Dalimbar, Cambria, and United Adaikes, into the tournament.
Zoran faced off against Saint Mark, and both sides played a great game of rugby which ultimately Zoran won. Dalimbar played against Larxia and had one of their highest score differentials ever and tied with the Overthinkers' match against Libterraria on Day 1. Cambria demonstrated why they're head of Group C in their match with Libterraria, who are still perhaps feeling the effects of their previous match. United Adaikes barely saw off a strong squad from Fujai, winning by 1. 
Ostronia, Saranzio, Kalmach, and Ryxtylopia had upsets in their respective matches. Hertfordshire and Jammbo along with Dilber are not performing to the same level as they did in earlier editions of the RWC.
A     B Ionia (47.24) 00 17 Teralyon (48.98+3) Ostronia (46.10) 27 17 Hertfordshire and Jammbo (46.96+3) Dalimbar (57.04) 34 08 Larxia (52.38+3) Saranzio (44.90) 30 24 Varanius (47.60+3) Apexiala (43.37) 07 13 Giovanniland (47.62+3) Zoran (62.61) 16 07 Saint Mark (51.50+3) Peourouin (42.83) 11 00 Einherfell (42.79+3) Overthinkers (49.45) 16 03 Nieubasria (49.30+3) Cambria (55.07) 13 06 Libterraria (48.37+3) Kalmach (42.72) 21 11 Arifiyyah (47.60+3) Ryxtylopia (43.66) 12 03 Dilber (48.89+3) United Adaikes (51.91) 11 10 Fujai (52.63+3) Day 2 Rankings:
Zoran - 62.99 Dalimbar - 59.54 Cambria - 56.33 United Adaikes - 54.65 Overthinkers - 52.02 Saint Mark - 51.12 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Teralyon - 50.56 Fujai - 49.89  Larxia - 49.88 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Ryztylopia - 49.13 Ostronia - 48.87 Min-Su - 48.87 Giovanniland - 48.17 Saranzio - 48.04 Libterraria - 47.11 Nieubasria - 46.73 Kalmach - 46.30 Cyrylic - 46.20 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Ionia - 45.66 Peourouin - 45.42 Varanius - 44.46 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 44.19 Arifiyyah - 44.02 Dilber - 44.02 Denieria - 42.95 Apexiala - 42.82 Aftokratoria - 42.40 Rivalfiume - 42.40 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Sekiya - 41.13 Einherfell - 40.20

On Day 3, the shock of the day was the tie between two historical rivals, Dalimbar vs Hertsfordshire and Jammbo. Home turf advantage and their ranking advantage would suggest that the Boys in Blue would wipe out their opponents, something about H&J always seems to unnerve the Dalimbari. A tie is an improvement for the Dalimbari, but the Rankings was disappointed and awarded H&J 3.67 points.
The break day Sekiya had must have done them wonders, as they now claim the most lop-sided match in RWC history with a 31 point victory. This gave them a 5.26 point boost, which is a must need at this point in the tournament.
Zoran and Giovanniland had a grudge match which only resulted in one try-convert from the Zoranians. While this is the second match this tournament that Giovanniland was unable to score a single point, the fact they prevented Zoran from running away with the points (both in the game and in the Rankings) is perhaps a consolation prize.
A     B Hertfordshire and Jammbo (44.19) 14 14 Dalimbar (59.59+3) Teralyon (50.56) 20 22 Ostronia (48.87+3) Sekiya (41.13) 38 07 Ionia (45.66+3) Giovanniland (48.17) 00 07 Zoran (62.99+3) Varanius (44.46) 19 07 Apexiala (42.82+3) Rivalfiume (42.40) 13 03 Saranzio (48.04+3) Nieubasria (46.73) 00 20 Cambria (56.33+3) Einherfell (40.20) 10 24 Overthinkers (52.02+3) Cyrylic (46.20) 12 29 Peourouin (45.62+3) Dilber (43.42) 03 10 United Adaikes (54.65+3) Arifiyyah (44.02) 00 14 Ryxtylopia (49.13+3) Aftokratoria (42.40) 10 19 Kalmach (46.30+3) Day 3 Rankings:
Zoran - 61.42 Dalimbar - 55.87 Cambria - 55.55 United Adaikes - 53.80 Saint Mark - 51.12 Overthinkers - 51.05 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Ostronia - 50.61 Fujai - 49.89 Larxia - 49.88 Giovanniland - 49.73 Ryxtylopia - 49.51 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Teralyon - 48.82 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 47.86 Peourouin - 47.75 Nieubasria - 47.51 Libterraria - 47.11 Kalmach - 46.92 Varanius - 46.73 Sekiya - 46.39 Rivalfiume - 46.13 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Saranzio - 44.31 Dilber - 44.27 Cyrylic - 43.87 Arifiyyah - 43.64 Denieria - 42.95 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Aftokratoria - 41.78 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Einherfell - 41.16 Apexiala - 40.55 Ionia - 40.40

Match Day 4 was a day of jostling for position, with teams trying to ensure that they will be well placed in the Round of 16, or even make it into the R16. Two newcomers are having meteoric rises in the tournament, with Ostronia and Overthinkers now sitting 5th and 6th in the overall standings. The old guard better take note.
A     B Ostronia (50.61) 24 12 Sekiya (46.39+3) Dalimbar (55.87) 19 07 Teralyon (48.82+3) Larxia (49.88) 00 13 Hertfordshire and Jammbo (47.86+3) Apexiala (40.55) 00 20 Rivalfiume (46.13+3) Zoran (61.42) 13 03 Varanius (46.73+3) Saint Mark (51.12) 12 17 Giovanniland (49.73+3) Overthinkers (51.05) 17 05 Vyrylic (43.87+3) Cambria (55.55) 26 10 Einherfell (41.16+3) Libterraria (47.11) 17 19 Nieubasria (47.51+3) Ryxtylopia (49.51) 21 14 Aftokratoria (41.78+3) United Adaikes (53.80) 19 06 Arifiyyah (43.64+3) Fujai (49.89) 07 03 Dilber (44.27+3) Day 4 Rankings:
Zoran - 61.08 Dalimbar - 57.06 Cambria - 55.13 United Adaikes - 54.37 Ostronia - 52.37 Overthinkers - 52.21 Giovanniland - 51.41 Fujai - 51.37 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 49.66 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Saint Mark - 49.44 Min-Su - 48.87 Nieubasria - 48.83 Larxia - 49.08 Peourouin - 47.75 Teralyon - 47.63 Varanius - 47.07 Kalmach - 46.92 Rivalfiume - 46.56 Ryxtylopia - 46.56 Libterraria - 45.79 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Aftokratoria - 44.73 Sekiya - 44.63 Saranzio - 44.31 Arifiyyah - 43.07 Denieria - 42.95 Dilber - 42.79 Cyrylic - 43.71 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Einherfell - 41.58 Ionia - 40.40 Apexiala - 40.12

A     B Teralyon (47.63) 30 14 Larxia (48.08+3) Sekiya (44.63) 03 23 Dalimbar (57.06+3) Ionia (40.40) 03 25 Ostronia (52.37+3) Varanius (47.07) 00 17 Saint Mark (49.44+3) Rivalfiume (46.56) 12 31 Zoran (61.08+3) Saranzio (44.31) 20 17 Apexiala (40.12+3) Einherfell (41.58) 14 15 Libterraria (45.79+3) Cyrylic (42.71) 17 24 Cambria (55.13+3) Peourouin (47.75) 03 14 Overthinkers (52.21+3) Arifiyyah (43.07) 00 11 Fujai (51.37+3) Aftokratoria (44.73) 14 20 United Adaikes (54.37+3) Kalmach (46.92) 03 24 Ryxtylopia (46.56+3) Day 5 Rankings:
Zoran - 58.82 Dalimbar - 55.43 Cambria - 54.05 United Adaikes - 53.84 Overthinkers - 52.72 Teralyon - 51.67 Giovanniland - 51.41 Fujai - 51.11 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Ostronia - 50.88 Saint Mark - 50.37 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 49.66 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Nieubasria - 48.83 Rivalfiume - 48.82 Ryxtylopia - 48.77 Peourouin - 47.24 Libterraria - 46.35 Sekiya - 46.26 Varanius - 46.14 Saranzio - 46.07 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Aftokratoria - 45.26 Kalmach - 44.71 Larxia - 44.05 Cyrylic - 43.79 Arifiyyah - 43.33 Denieria - 42.95 Dilber - 42.79 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Ionia - 41.89 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Einherfell - 41.58 Apexiala - 38.36 Nations in Bold have ensured qualification to the Round of 16. 

Match Day 6
A     B Dalimbar (55.43) 20 12 Ionia (41.89+3) Larxia (44.05) 03 11 Sekiya (46.26+3) Hertfordshire and Jammbo (49.66) 14 19 Teralyon (51.67+3) Zoran (58.82) 20 07 Saranzio (46.07+3) Saint Mark (50.37) 05 00 Rivalfiume (48.82+3) Giovanniland (51.41) 17 00 Varanius (46.14+3) Cambria (54.05) 34 13 Peourouin (47.24+3) Libterraria (46.35) 14 03 Cyrylic (43.79+3) Nieubasria (48.83) 08 00 Einherfell (41.02+3) United Adaikes (53.84) 18 00 Kalmach (44.71+3) Fujai (51.11) 03 00 Aftokratoria (45.26+3) Dilber (42.79) 13 13 Ryxtylopia (46.56+3) Day 6 Rankings:
Zoran - 58.87 Cambria - 55.91 Dalimbar - 55.32 United Adaikes - 55.00 Giovanniland - 53.73 Overthinkers - 52.72 Teralyon - 52.67 Saint Mark - 52.66 Fujai - 52.54 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Ostronia - 50.88 Nieubasria - 49.87 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Ryxtylopia - 48.77 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 48.66 Libterraria - 48.44 Sekiya - 47.22 Rivalfiume - 46.53 Saranzio - 46.02 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Peourouin - 45.38 Aftokratoria - 43.83 Varanius - 43.82 Kalmach - 43.55 Dilber - 43.50 Larxia - 43.09 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Ionia - 42.00 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Cyrylic - 41.70 Einherfell - 39.98 Apexiala - 38.36 Nations in Bold have ensured qualification to the Round of 16. 

Match Day 7
So... you're on top of the world. You win a game by 26 and blank the other side. You're the premiere team of the past two world cups... but the craziest thing out of Rugby Rankings happens:
Zoran was rewarded with -4.05 ranking points.
What happened?! It appears our faithful rugby ranking system is possibly more tolerant than the Free State. In that, it does not ever want to see big beefy teams beat up on the weak. It will take points away from your side and give them to the nerd team you beat up because they lived to tell the tale. It aims for a fair competition between relatively evenly-matched squads. 
When the opposition is literally the worst side to have ever been forced to participate in RWC, with poor Apexiala being reduced to 38.36 points from this season, and facing up to a team ranked with 58.87 (also being penalized several times for beating up on smaller teams and not someone their own size??), only a lunatic would bet on an Apexiala win. But for the system, that does not matter. Squads may need more experience before attempting to enter the RWC.
So, we have an extreme example of negative points in Rankings. We however do enter a new era in the tournament, knock-outs. This is where things will get interesting for the surviving teams.
A     B Sekiya (47.22) 07 17 Hertfordshire and Jammbo (48.66+3) Ionia (42.00) 14 12 Larxia (43.09+3) Ostronia (50.88) 08 20 Dalimbar (55.32+3) Rivalfiume (46.53) 00 15 Giovanniland (53.73+3) Saranzio (46.02) 00 12 Saint Mark (52.66+3) Apexiala (38.36) 00 26 Zoran (58.87+3) Cyryilic (41.70) 13 23 Nieubasria (49.87+3) Peourouin (45.38) 15 06 Libterraria (48.44+3) Overthinkers (52.72) 07 11 Cambria (55.91+3) Aftokratoria (43.83) 13 00 Dilber (43.50+3) Kalmach (43.55) 26 18 Fujai (52.54+3) Ryxtylopia (48.77) 03 13 United Adaikes (55.00+3) Day 7 Rankings:
Cambria - 56.67 Dalimbar - 55.83 United Adaikes - 55.15 Zoran - 54.82 Giovanniland - 53.69 Saint Mark - 52.73 Teralyon - 52.67 Overthinkers - 51.96 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Ostronia - 50.37 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 49.77 Nieubasria - 49.52 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Ryxtylopia - 48.62 Peourouin - 48.59 Fujai - 48.14 Kalmach - 47.95 Rivalfiume - 46.57 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Sekiya - 46.11 Saranzio - 45.95 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Varanius - 43.82 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Apexiala - 42.41 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Cyrylic - 42.05 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.27 Einherfell - 39.98 Nations in Bold have ensured qualification to the Round of 16. 

Welcome to the knock-outs! As anticipated the issue of "negative points" have gone away as we are left with the strongest sides in Esferos.
Nieubasria and Overthinkers produced surprises, beating more established foes to move on. Ryxtylopia seems to have benefitted from warmer weather and having a "home" benefit when facing Ostronia. 
The "Big 4" teams currently jostling for top spot will need to keep an eye out for the side from Overthinkers. We might have a "Big 5" on our hands.
A     B Dalimbar (55.83) 37 11 Kalmach (47.95+3) Giovanniland (53.69) 06 13 Nieubasria (49.52+3) Cambria (56.67) 20 06 Saranzio (45.95+3) Fujai (48.14) 03 07 Teralyon (52.67+3) Zoran (54.82) 30 05 Peourouin (48.59+3) Ostronia (50.37) 10 29 Ryxtylopia (48.62+3) United Adaikes (55.15) 12 08 Hertfordshire and Jammbo (49.77+3) Overthinkers (51.96) 24 03 Saint Mark (52.73+3) Day 8 (Round of 16) Rankings:
Dalimbar - 57.37 Cambria - 57.13 Zoran - 56.85 United Adaikes - 56.68 Overthinkers - 56.09 Teralyon - 53.16 Nieubasria - 51.75 Giovanniland - 51.46 Ryxtylopia - 51.24 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Saint Mark - 48.60 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 48.25 Ostronia - 47.74 Fujai - 47.65 Rivalfiume - 46.57 Peourouin - 46.56 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Sekiya - 46.11 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Saranzio - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Varanius - 43.82 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Apexiala - 42.41 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Cyrylic - 42.05 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.27 Einherfell - 39.98 Nations in Bold have ensured qualification to the Quarter-Finals. 

The semi-finals saw the end of the Cinderella stories at play in this RWC. Dalimbar overcame a grudge match with their foes, the Cambrians. United Adaikes were the team to halt the Ryxtylopian dream in their tracks. Fear not, we are in the Finals, and while Dalimbar will face United Adaikes in home of Dalimbari rugby for the ultimate prize, the Cambrians and Ryxtylopians will clash to claim Bronze in Nadu.
A     B Dalimbar (59.58) 13 03 Cambria (58.93+3) Ryxtylopia (53.76) 03 05 United Adaikes (59.16+3) Day 10 (Semi-Final) Rankings:
Dalimbar - 62.05 United Adaikes - 59.48 Cambria - 56.46 Zoran - 54.33 Overthinkers - 53.61 Ryxtylopia - 53.44 Giovanniland - 51.46 Teralyon - 51.36 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Nieubasria - 49.54 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Saint Mark - 48.60 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 48.25 Ostronia - 47.74 Fujai - 47.65 Rivalfiume - 46.57 Peourouin - 46.56 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Sekiya - 46.11 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Saranzio - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Varanius - 43.82 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Apexiala - 42.41 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Cyrylic - 42.05 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.27 Einherfell - 39.98 Nations in the Gold medal game, nations in the Bronze medal game. 

Ignore the last part about the Cinderella story being quashed, the victory of Ryxtylopia over Cambria is a fairytale run for the small nation. 
On behalf of the entire Department of Sports, we are so thankful for a Dalimbari victory. The two senior leagues of their divisions faced off but in front of home fans in Garrison Stadium, the Dalimbari were finally able to get the gold and... Bring It Home!
Thank you for being part of Rugby Rankings, and we will be back for the next Rugby World Cup! If not sooner...?
A     B Cambria (56.46) 24 27 Ryxtylopia (53.44+3) Dalimbar (62.05) 19 06 United Adaikes (59.48+3) Day 11 (Final) Rankings:
Dalimbar - 64.14 United Adaikes - 57.40 Ryxtylopia - 55.45 Cambria - 54.46 Zoran - 54.33 Overthinkers - 53.61 Giovanniland - 51.46 Teralyon - 51.36 Blue Bubble - 50.93 Nieubasria - 49.54 Santos-Dominius - 49.51 Min-Su - 48.87 Saint Mark - 48.60 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 48.25 Ostronia - 47.74 Fujai - 47.65 Rivalfiume - 46.57 Peourouin - 46.56 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Sekiya - 46.11 Nagaraningrad - 45.77 Saranzio - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Varanius - 43.82 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Apexiala - 42.41 Qostaoyae - 42.11 Cyrylic - 42.05 Hanita Gracse - 41.76 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.27 Einherfell - 39.98 Won the Gold medal game, won the Silver medal, won the Bronze medal game. 

Rugby World Cup 5 - Overthinkers
The Department of Sports is proud to be back with Rugby Rankings for RWC5 in Overthinkers! The hosts are a new but strong side, and we in the Department will be interested to see how they do on home soil. Particularly with the level of competition on display!
Some housekeeping - Teams who may have missed a RWC but are back in Overthinkers will retain their previously acquired ranking. Teams who have joined us here in Overthinkers for the first time will automatically be ranked at 45.00 points. As we saw last time, where you start doesn't particularly matter, it's if and how you win. As per previous editions, we will be also having RWC4 teams which did not qualify for RWC5 appear in italics as measures of how competing squads do.
Without further ado, here's the rankings going into Rugby World Cup 5 in Overthinkers!
Dalimbar - 64.14 United Adaikes - 57.40 Ryxtylopia - 55.45 Cambria - 54.46 Zoran - 54.33 Overthinkers - 53.61 Giovanniland - 51.46 Teralyon - 51.36 Nieubasria - 49.54 Min-Su - 48.87 Saint Mark - 48.60 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 48.25 Ostronia - 47.74 Fujai - 47.65 Rivalfiume - 46.57 Peourouin - 46.57 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Sekiya - 46.11 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Avadonialis - 45.00 Mygrdiyah - 45.00 Nalibia - 45.00 New Velkia - 45.00 Nouveauterra - 45.00 Zhiznovsk - 45.00 Ionia - 44.82 Varanius - 43.82 Denieria - 42.95 Arifiyyah - 42.62 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.27 Einherfell - 39.98

RWC5 - Day Two
Department of Sport of the Free State of Dalimbar notes that Giovanniland has always found a way to oust the Boys in Blue. They have done so again, costing Dalimbar 5.91 points. Stavka reports that they are not pleased. May we find a path to greatness again.
The eastern Polaris contest between Teralyon and United Adaikes was also an upset, with Teralyon besting United Adaikes. New but organized teams such as Mygrdiyah, Avadonialis, and Zhiznovsk also impressed with showing off their skills not just in one match but now two. It'll be interesting to see which of the newer teams can sustain a run for the Cup.
A     B Rivalfiume (43.42) 13 00 Larxia (42.47+3) Hertfordshire and Jammbo (46.05) 06 26 Avadonialis (45.49+3) Cambria (53.97) 12 20 Overthinkers (53.61+3) Fujai (48.74) 10 00 New Velka (44.51+3) Nieubasria (50.03) 13 18 Zhiznovsk (44.87+3) Teralyon (51.49) 17 11 United Adaikes (57.40+3) Peourouin (47.17) 31 05 Einherfell (40.30+3) Saint Mark (48.28) 14 03 Nouveauterra (47.47+3) Zoran (51.86) 08 12 Ryxtylopia (55.45+3) Ostronia (48.18) 03 16 Mygrdiyah (50.60+3) Min-Su (43.81) 00 03 Nalibia (48.89+3) Giovanniland (47.57) 27 13 Dalimbar (64.14+3)  
Dalimbar - 58.23 Ryxtylopia - 56.13 Teralyon - 55.27 Overthinkers - 55.08 United Adaikes - 53.62 Giovanniland - 53.48 Cambria - 52.50 Zoran - 51.18 Mygrdiyah - 51.09 Saint Mark - 50.71 Fujai - 50.50 Nalibia - 49.28 Peourouin - 49.01 Avadonialis - 47.76 Nieubasria - 47.60 Zhiznovsk - 47.30 Ostronia - 47.16 Varanius - 46.97 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Rivalfiume - 45.83 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Nouveauterra - 45.03 Sekiya - 45.02 Ionia - 44.82 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 43.79 Min-Su - 43.43 New Velka - 42.75 Denieria - 42.51 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Arifiyyah - 42.01 Dilber - 40.97 Larxia - 40.06 Einherfell - 38.45  

RWC5 - Day Three
What a wild tournament. H&J reminded us that they did win RWC1 by beating the host nation, Overthinkers. Avadonialis and Rivalfiume came down to the wire on who would win. Larxia is starting to find their legs, beating Varanius. United Adaikes, probably the strongest Polarii team after Dalimbar, just absolutely smoked Nieubasria. Fujai also obliteratted Zhiznovsk, a testament to their domestic rugby development. Sekiya got the job done of beating New Velka. Ryxtylopia proved that they weren't a one-hit wonder by narrowly beating Saint Mark. Peourouin had a good clean afternoon against Nouveauterra. Arifiyyah pushed Einherfell lower in the rankings. Dalimbar quickly shaked off our previous loss to hit Min-Su hard. Ostronia went even harder against their opponent, Nalibia, and can boast of having the greatest differential in any match in RWC history by besting their opponents by 32 points (the previous high score was Sekiya beating Ionia on Day 3 of RWC4 by 31 points). Finally, Mygrdiyah continues to impress with their rise and there may be a few few gents in the Department who are putting bets on Mygrdiyah.
A     B Overthinkers (55.08) 10 17 Hertfordshire and Jammbo (47.44+3) Avadonialis (47.76) 12 13 Rivalfiume (47.62+3) Larxia (40.06) 16 10 Varanius (46.97+3) United Adaikes (53.62) 22 00 Nieubasria (47.60+3) Zhiznovsk (47.30) 00 20 Fujai (50.50+3) New Velka (42.75) 13 25 Sekiya (45.02+3) Ryxtylopia (56.13) 14 10 Saint Mark (50.71+3) Nouveauterra (45.03) 00 07 Peourouin (49.01+3) Einherfell (38.46) 03 18 Arifiyyah (42.01+3) Dalimbar (58.23) 36 20 Min-Su (43.43+3) Nalibia (49.28) 09 41 Ostronia (47.16+3) Mygrdiyah (51.09) 19 00 Denieria (42.51+3) Dalimbar - 57.69 Ryxtylopia - 57.65 United Adaikes - 55.71 Teralyon - 55.27 Giovanniland - 53.48 Cambria - 52.50 Mygrdiyah - 52.41 Fujai - 51.64 Overthinkers - 51.42 Zoran - 51.18 Ostronia - 49.89 Peourouin - 49.61 Saint Mark - 49.20 Rivalfiume - 47.62 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 47.44 Nalibia - 46.54 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Zhiznovsk - 46.16 Avadonialis - 45.97 Sekiya - 45.97 Nieubasria - 45.51 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Ionia - 44.82 Nouveauterra - 44.42 Larxia - 44.04 Min-Su - 43.97 Varanius - 42.99 Arifiyyah - 42.70 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 New Velka - 41.81 Denieria - 41.18 Dilber - 40.97 Einherfell - 37.77

RWC5 - Day Five
 
A     B Rivalfiume (46.98) 00 23 Cambria (52.89+3) Overthinkers (52.06) 36 03 Varanius (42.18+3) Avadonialis (46.78) 17 18 Larxia (44.04+3) Teralyon (54.72) 06 00 Fujai (51.05+3) United Adaikes (56.30) 24 10 Sekiya (48.60+3) Zhiznovsk (43.52) 34 13 New Velka (41.81+3) Zoran (52.18) 32 14 Peourouin (49.82+3) Ryxtylopia (57.44) 16 10 Arifiyyah (43.64+3) Nouveauterra (43.48) 10 00 Einherfell (37.77+3) Giovanniland (52.98) 03 24 Ostronia (50.05+3) Dalimbar (57.53) 22 12 Denieria (40.85+3) Nalibia (46.87) 07 17 Mygrdiyah (52.41+3) United Adaikes - 57.36 Ryxtylopia - 57.28 Dalimbar - 56.79 Teralyon - 56.58 Zoran - 55.38 Cambria - 53.21 Ostronia - 53.03 Overthinkers - 53.00 Mygrdiyah - 52.70 Giovanniland - 50.00 Fujai - 49.19 Saint Mark - 48.19 Sekiya - 47.54 Hertfordshire and Jammbo - 47.05 Zhiznovsk - 46.91 Rivalfiume - 46.65 Peourouin - 46.63 Nalibia - 46.58 Kalmach - 46.41 Aftokratoria - 46.36 Nieubasria - 46.06 Larxia - 45.99 Fortuna - 45.49 Libterraria - 45.23 Nouveauterra - 44.94 Avadonialis - 44.83 Ionia - 44.82 Min-Su - 44.47 Arifiyyah - 43.80 Apexiala - 42.41 Cyrylic - 42.05 Denieria - 41.59 Varanius - 41.25 Dilber - 40.97 New Velka - 38.42 Einherfell - 36.31 Nations in Bold have ensured qualification to the Round of 16.