Dali's Canadian Federal Election Projection 2025

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Work In Progress - Full Projection to be posted soon!

As many of you know, I'm a political nerd and junky. As a public servant in RL I do not participate in electoral campaigns these days but in the 2010s I was involved in campaigns for the provincial and federal NDP in my local area. I've been doing election projections and forecasts since the late 2000s for pure personal amusement and to help my understanding on how a given race is going. Today, I'm happy to publish my forecast for the 2025 Canadian federal election, with the first results from Newfoundland and Labrador most likely being announced shortly after 7pm EDT Monday night, and then moving across the country throughout the night.

Polls close in each region in this general order:

Newfoundland - 8:30pm NDT, 8:00pm ADT, 7:00pm EDT, 6:00pm CDT, 5:00pm MDT, 4:00pm PDT
Atlantic - 9:00pm NDT, 8:30pm ADT, 7:30pm EDT, 6:30pm CDT, 5:30pm MDT, 4:30pm PDT
Quebec/Ontario - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Manitoba - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
Saskatchewan/Alberta - 11:00pm NDT, 10:30pm ADT, 9:30pm EDT, 8:30pm CDT, 7:30pm MDT, 6:30pm PDT
British Columbia - 11:30pm NDT, 11:00pm ADT, 10:00pm EDT, 9:00pm CDT, 8:00pm MDT, 7:00pm PDT

Headline Polling Numbers

Due to how geographically diverse our country is, polling is often analyzed by the headline federal numbers for each party, but perhaps more importantly by the "regional" numbers. Although there are 10 provinces and 3 territories, standard polling practice is to poll the country based off of the following regions: Atlantic (which is Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick), Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), Alberta, and British Columbia. This is due to the lower populations in the Atlantic and Prairie provinces and resulting sample sizes. For the territories I group them in the following fashion: Nunavut's projection is tied in with the Prairies, Northwest Territories is with Alberta, and Yukon is with British Columbia. In the below section I'll show where polling has each party in each region and also noting the difference from what they scored in the 2021 election:

CANADA - Liberal Party of Canada LIB 42.50% (+9.88), Conservative Party of Canada CON 38.83% (+5.09), New Democratic Party of Canada NDP 8.63% (-9.19), Bloc Quebecois BLQ 6.00% (-1.64), Green Party of Canada GRN 2.00% (-0.33), People's Party of Canada PPC 1.23% (-3.70), Other Parties/Independents OTH 0.80% (-0.11)

Atlantic - LIB 54.87% (+11.27), CON 35.33% (+3.79), NDP 6.50% (-10.42), GRN 1.63% (-1.55), PPC 1.37% (-2.99), OTH 0.30% (-0.10)

Quebec - LIB 40.63% (+7.03), BLQ 25.87% (-6.26), CON 23.70% (+5.05), NDP 5.83% (-3.94), GRN 1.77% (+0.24), PPC 1.37% (-1.32), OTH 0.83% (-0.80)

Ontario - LIB 47.60% (+8.34), CON 39.87% (+5.00), NDP 8.20% (-9.65), GRN 2.03% (-0.19), PPC 1.43% (-4.02), OTH 0.87% (+0.52)

Prairies - CON 48.87% (+0.28), LIB 36.30% (+16.61), NDP 11.50% (-10.60), GRN 1.43% (+0.03), PPC 1.13% (-6.01),  OTH 0.77% (-0.32)

Alberta - CON 59.40% (+4.13), LIB 27.73% (+12.28), NDP 8.93% (-10.14), PPC 2.17% (-5.18), GRN 1.17% (+0.26), OTH 0.60% (-1.34)

British Columbia - LIB 40.73% (+13.73), CON 39.23% (+6.01), NDP 13.90% (-15.27), GRN 3.67% (-1.62), PPC 1.63% (-3.28), OTH 0.88% (+0.43)

There are a few events in play: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (running in Carleton, ON) has been running a populist conservative campaign which has removed the PPC from play on his right-flank, along with grabbing the attention of those who feel angry and/or left behind by the past 10 years of Liberal government. This is why he will probably receive the best popular vote that any centre-right politician has in the post-1993 modern Canadian system. The threat of Donald Trump (and how Poilievre looks Trump-lite) and the perceived competency of Liberal leader Mark Carney (running in Nepean, ON) in the face of Trump (or in general compared to Trudeau) has moved NDP, Green, and even a good number of Bloc Quebecois voters over to the Liberals. Trump absolutely scares us and any time he mentions "51st State" or announces a new round of tariff, we wrap our red-and-white maple leaf flag around us even harder. The NDP led by Jagmeet Singh (running in Burnaby Centre, BC), Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (running in Beloeil--Chambly, QC) and Greens co-led by Elizabeth May (running in Saanich--Gulf Islands, BC) and Jonathan Pedneault (running in Outremont, QC) are all urging their supporters to keep supporting their parties to provide somewhat of a check on a Carney-led Liberal majority government, to apparent limited success. The critical issue of the campaign has been Canadian sovereignty/who can be the best to stand up for Canada against Trump, followed by affordability/cost of living which was the top issue before Trump returned and started to bully us. Before the election the other major issue, fatigue with Justin Trudeau, was removed from the equation when over the winter his party finally broke with him and he announced he would resign after a new leader was found, allowing Mark Carney (who has served as Governor of the Central Bank of Canada and then of England) to launch a very successful campaign to become the Liberal standard-bearer. The consumer-side of the Carbon Tax was also removed as a campaign issue (which was seen as an affordability/cost of living issue for many Canadians who hated high gas and other prices) for the most part when Carney became PM just before the campaign officially started and changed the taxation rate to 0%, effectively removing the consumer-side of the Carbon Tax while generally leaving the industrial-side of said tax. 

Headline Seat Numbers

Of course, the popular vote does not actually determine who forms government in Canada, it is the number of MPs a Prime Minister can count on to deliver confidence. In both the 2019 and 2021 elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote by roughly 1% over the Liberals, and yet because of how solid the Conservative vote is in rural Canada (particularly across Alberta and Saskatchewan, and rural parts of BC, Manitoba and Ontario) and inefficient elsewhere, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau in both of those elections won a plurality of seats in the House and kept government, either working bill-by-bill with any opposition party who wanted to work with them (or more likely, abstain on the bill), or form a confidence and supply agreement as what happened between 2022 and 2024 with the Liberal government and the NDP. Based off of the map of ridings in the country, and where people are, it is common assumption that if the Conservatives want to form a minority government they need to have at least 2-3% above the Liberals, and would need 4%+ to get a majority depending on how the other parties do in their respective areas. And yet, here are the seat projections I get with the numbers today:

LIB - 188
CON - 126
BLQ - 21
NDP - 6
GRN - 2
PPC - 0
OTH - 0

How did I get these numbers? In the past election we had 338 ridings, in this one we have 343. Elections Canada and other sources provide good data on how to transpose the prior election onto the new boundaries, and from that data I use a regional-swing model (with some adjustments in seats for local conditions) to get the below seat projections. In the below section, I sort ridings into sub-regions, note beside the riding name which party current holds the seat, and then show the expected percentages for each party running in the seat. If it has this colour as with its name then that is a riding which is within 10 points margin between the first and second placed party and thus is what I figure is a "battleground" riding.

Atlantic Canada (32 seats)

Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats):
Avalon LIB - 61.15 LIB, 35.42 CON, 2.97 NDP, 0.46 OTH
Cape Spear LIB - 65.06 LIB, 22.38 CON, 11.97 NDP, 0.38 GRN, 0.22 OTH 
Central Newfoundland CON - 53.77 LIB, 45.63 CON, 0.61 NDP
Labrador LIB - 53.38 LIB, 33.96 CON, 12.65 NDP
Long Range Mountains LIB - 54.87 LIB, 42.78 CON, 1.34 PPC, 0.84 NDP, 0.17 OTH
St. John's East LIB - 55.48 LIB, 23.66 NDP, 20.33 CON, 0.31 GRN, 0.23 OTH
Terra Nova--The Peninsulas LIB - 57.02 LIB, 42.39 CON, 0.60 NDP

Prince Edward Island (4 seats):
Cardigan LIB - 60.90 LIB, 33.79 CON, 3.26 GRN, 0.73 NDP, 0.69 OTH, 0.62 PPC
Charlottetown LIB - 56.81 LIB, 33.70 CON, 8.05 GRN, 0.83 NDP, 0.62 PPC
Egmont LIB - 56.33 LIB, 35.02 CON, 7.96 GRN, 0.68 NDP
Malpeque LIB - 51.85 LIB, 35.71 CON, 11.14 GRN, 0.69 NDP, 0.61 PPC

Nova Scotia (11 seats):
Acadie--Annapolis CON - 54.22 CON, 41.04 LIB, 2.30 PPC, 2.25 NDP, 0.20 GRN
Cape Breton--Canso--Antigonish LIB - 56.36 LIB, 38.51 CON, 3.73 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Central Nova LIB - 55.56 LIB, 36.78 CON, 5.65 NDP, 1.00 PPC, 0.43 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Cumberland--Colchester CON - 49.93 CON, 45.58 LIB, 2.02 NDP, 1.30 PPC, 1.16 GRN
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour LIB - 62.49 LIB, 22.28 NDP, 6.83 CON, 6.74 PPC, 1.36 GRN, 0.29 OTH
Halifax LIB - 53.10 LIB, 29.55 NDP, 16.10 CON, 0.65 GRN, 0.60 PPC
Halifax West LIB - 58.42 LIB, 24.88 CON, 15.18 NDP, 0.93 GRN, 0.59 PPC
Kings--Hants LIB - 55.60 LIB, 33.97 CON, 8.49 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Sackville--Bedford--Preston LIB - 56.02 LIB, 28.63 CON, 14.35 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 GRN
South Shore--St. Margaret's CON - 49.73 LIB, 44.95 CON, 2.59 GRN, 2.14 OTH, 0.59 PPC
Sydney--Glace Bay LIB - 52.42 LIB, 37.70 CON, 9.15 NDP, 0.59 PPC, 0.14 OTH

New Brunswick (10 seats):
Acadie--Bathurst LIB - 77.15 LIB, 17.96 CON, 3.21 PPC, 1.69 NDP
Beausejour LIB - 66.84 LIB, 23.18 CON, 4.59 PPC, 4.15 GRN, 0.69 OTH, 0.55 NDP
Fredericton--Oromocto LIB - 48.70 LIB, 36.96 CON, 10.75 GRN, 2.73 NDP, 0.68 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Fundy Royal CON - 50.18 CON, 36.59 LIB, 5.65 PPC, 4.10 NDP, 3.48 GRN
Madawasaka--Restigouche LIB - 63.68 LIB, 31.22 CON, 4.59 PPC, 0.52 NDP
Miramichi--Grand Lake CON - 49.86 CON, 46.34 LIB, 3.21 GRN, 0.59 NDP
Moncton--Dieppe LIB - 61.57 LIB, 28.81 CON, 6.64 NDP, 2.97 GRN
Saint John--Kennebacasis LIB - 54.02 LIB, 41.44 CON, 2.82 NDP, GRN GRN, 0.28 OTH
Saint John--St. Croix CON - 54.13 CON, 39.42 LIB, 2.80 NDP, 2.68 GRN, 0.98 OTH
Tobique--Mactaquac CON - 56.91 CON, 34.01 LIB, 4.36 PPC, 3.53 GRN, 1.19 NDP

Quebec (78 seats)

Eastern Quebec (4 seats):
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Levis CON - 57.50 CON, 23.35 LIB, 16.83 BLQ, 1.99 NDP, 0.32 PPC
Cote-du-Sud--Riviere-du-Loup--Kataskomiq--Temiscouata CON - 49.78 CON, 25.92 LIB, 23.37 BLQ, 0.43 PPC, 0.24 GRN, 0.14 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Gaspesie--Les Iles-de-la-Madeleine--Listuguj BLQ - 46.97 LIB, 38.00 BLQ, 13.31 CON, 0.68 PPC, 0.59 OTH, 0.45 NDP
Rimouski--La Matapedia BLQ - 48.12 BLQ, 29.14 LIB, 16.25 CON, 3.75 OTH, 2.02 NDP, 0.73 PPC

Cote-Nord--Saguenay (5 seats):
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord CON - 45.05 CON, 27.44 BLQ, 24.87 LIB, 1.41 GRN, 0.77 NDP, 0.46 PPC
Cote-Nord--Kawawachikamach--Nitassinan BLQ - 46.33 BLQ, 25.98 CON, 25.78 LIB, 1.49 OTH, 0.42 NDP
Jonquiere BLQ - 36.26 BLQ, 32.76 CON, 27.20 LIB, 1.94 GRN, 1.41 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Lac-Saint-Jean BLQ - 43.46 BLQ, 29.13 CON, 24.85 LIB, 1.84 GRN, 0.48 PPC, 0.24 NDP
Montmorency--Charlevoix BLQ - 38.86 CON, 30.75 BLQ, 27.36 LIB, 1.54 GRN, 0.81 NDP, 0.68 PPC

Quebec City (5 seats):
Beauport--Limoilou BLQ - 35.13 CON, 31.37 LIB, 24.49 BLQ, 5.80 NDP, 2.28 GRN, 0.54 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles CON - 50.00 CON, 27.38 LIB, 18.54 BLQ, 2.83 NDP, 0.88 PPC, 0.36 OTH
Louis-Hebert LIB - 45.70 LIB, 29.10 CON, 20.26 BLQ, 4.50 NDP, 0.43 PPC
Louis-Saint-Laurent--Akiawenhrahk CON - 57.48 CON, 25.14 LIB, 14.10 BLQ, 2.26 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Quebec-Centre LIB - 46.39 LIB, 23.80 BLQ, 12.54 OTH, 10.57 NDP, 6.71 PPC

Central Quebec (8 seats):
Becancour--Nicolet--Saurel--Alnobak BLQ - 48.81 BLQ, 24.20 LIB, 22.13 CON, 2.05 GRN, 1.43 NDP, 1.37 PPC
Berthier--Maskinonge BLQ - 30.10 BLQ, 27.24 NDP, 22.87 LIB, 16.40 CON, 1.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN
Joliette--Manawan BLQ - 49.29 BLQ, 29.72 LIB, 16.05 CON, 2.63 GRN, 2.32 NDP
Montcalm BLQ - 47.71 BLQ, 28.59 LIB, 19.49 CON, 4.21 NDP
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier CON - 57.54 CON, 22.30 LIB, 17.63 BLQ, 1.25 PPC, 0.90 NDP, 0.37 GRN
Repentigny BLQ - 45.09 BLQ, 35.28 LIB, 13.91 CON, 3.63 NDP, 1.63 OTH, 0.47 PPC
Saint-Maurice--Champlain LIB - 49.48 LIB, 23.81 BLQ, 23.05 CON, 1.54 GRN, 1.12 NDP, 0.55 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Trois-Rivieres BLQ - 35.66 LIB, 34.40 CON, 23.23 BLQ, 4.11 NDP, 1.54 GRN, 0.59 PPC, 0.46 OTH

Eastern Townships (10 seats):
Beauce (PPC Leader) CON - 53.63 CON, 19.93 LIB, 17.08 PPC, 9.17 BLQ, 0.18 NDP
Brome--Missisquoi LIB - 42.25 LIB, 28.63 BLQ, 21.52 CON, 2.89 GRN, 2.55 NDP, 2.16 PPC
Compton--Stanstead LIB - 43.80 LIB, 24.32 BLQ, 22.57 CON, 3.65 NDP, 3.13 GRN, 2.53 PPC
Drummond BLQ - 41.04 BLQ, 26.57 LIB, 23.67 CON, 7.99 NDP, 0.72 PPC
Levis--Lotbiniere CON - 54.84 CON, 23.09 LIB, 16.78 BLQ, 4.14 NDP, 1.15 PPC
Megantic-L'Erable--Lotbiniere CON - 61.90 CON, 21.05 LIB, 13.36 BLQ, 2.20 PPC, 0.77 NDP, 0.72 OTH
Richmond--Arthabaska CON - 54.95 CON, 22.06 LIB, 18.50 BLQ, 2.28 PPC, 1.58 OTH, 0.63 NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot--Acton BLQ - 41.35 BLQ, 29.88 LIB, 18.73 CON, 7.86 NDP, 1.56 PPC, 0.62 GRN
Shefford BLQ - 41.46 LIB, 36.01 BLQ, 17.58 CON, 2.52 NDP, 2.42 PPC
Sherbrooke LIB - 44.64 LIB, 22.85 BLQ, 17.95 CON, 10.12 NDP, 3.21 GRN, 1.22 PPC

Monteregie (11 seats):
Beauharnois--Salaberry--Soulanges--Huntington BLQ - 42.24 BLQ, 34.42 LIB, 17.02 CON, 3.62 NDP, 2.21 PPC, 0.58 GRN
Beloeil--Chambly (BLQ Leader) BLQ - 47.72 BLQ, 31.51 LIB, 13.88 CON, 5.87 NDP, 1.02 PPC
Brossard--Saint-Lambert LIB - 61.19 LIB, 17.09 CON, 13.73 BLQ, 6.51 NDP, 1.19 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Chateauguay--Les Jardins-de-Napierville BLQ - 43.55 LIB, 30.50 BLQ, 17.41 CON, 4.03 NDP, 2.61 PPC, 1.90 GRN
La Prairie--Atateken BLQ - 41.44 LIB, 37.26 BLQ, 14.78 CON, 3.36 NDP, 1.19 GRN, 1.27 PPC
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne LIB - 48.24 LIB, 29.05 BLQ, 13.41 CON, 7.55 NDP, 1.61 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert BLQ - 46.46 LIB, 35.15 BLQ, 12.97 CON, 5.43 NDP
Mont-Saint-Bruno--L'Acadie BLQ - 40.95 LIB, 38.97 BLQ, 14.54 CON, 4.37 NDP, 0.78 PPC, 0.39 GRN
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Vercheres BLQ - 48.14 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 14.01 CON, 4.00 NDP, 0.75 PPC
Saint-Jean BLQ - 40.01 BLQ, 35.42 LIB, 18.05 CON, 3.60 NDP, 2.64 GRN, 0.29 PPC
Vaudreuil LIB - 54.39 LIB, 21.34 CON, 14.44 BLQ, 6.71 NDP, 2.77 GRN, 0.35 PPC

Eastern Montreal (9 seats):
Ahuntsic--Cartierville LIB - 59.75 LIB, 16.45 BLQ, 14.04 CON, 9.23 NDP 0.54 OTH
Bourassa LIB - 67.98 LIB, 12.39 BLQ, 12.05 CON, 4.96 NDP, 2.33 PPC, 0.30 OTH
Hochelaga--Rosemont-Est LIB - 45.45 LIB, 25.23 BLQ, 16.41 NDP, 10.39 CON, 2.28 GRN, 0.25 OTH
Honore-Mercier LIB - 66.71 LIB, 15.29 CON, 10.02 BLQ, 3.37 NDP, 2.86 PPC, 1.74 GRN
La Pointe-de-l'Ile BLQ - 40.43 BLQ, 39.41 LIB, 12.74 CON, 5.82 NDP, 1.31 OTH, 0.30 GRN
Laurier--Sainte-Marie LIB - 46.59 LIB, 26.40 NDP, 13.89 BLQ, 9.56 CON, 2.47 GRN, 0.65 OTH, 0.45 PPC
Papineau LIB - 58.47 LIB, 20.21 NDP, 10.10 CON, 8.91 BLQ, 1.29 OTH, 1.02 PPC
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie NDP - 44.41 NDP, 29.99 LIB, 14.90 BLQ, 8.14 CON, 2.57 GRN
Saint-Leonard--Saint-Michel LIB - 75.80 LIB, 14.63 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.87 BLQ, 2.43 PPC

Western Montreal (9 seats):
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle LIB - 58.83 LIB, 16.53 CON, 9.45 BLQ, 9.19 NDP, 3.07 GRN, 2.87 PPC, 0.06 OTH
Lac-Saint-Louis LIB - 60.99 LIB, 21.65 CON, 9.36 NDP, 3.48 GRN, 2.88 BLQ, 1.64 PPC
LaSalle-Emard--Verdun BLQ - 44.10 LIB, 17.99 BLQ, 17.82 NDP, 14.25 CON, 2.77 GRN, 2.12 OTH, 0.94 PPC
Mount Royal LIB - 62.79 LIB, 27.58 CON, 6.26 NDP, 2.85 BLQ, 0.52 OTH
Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount LIB - 58.10 LIB, 17.38 CON, 13.31 NDP, 7.11 GRN, 2.90 BLQ, 1.10 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Outremont (GRN co-Leader) LIB - 51.37 LIB, 16.88 GRN, 12.89 CON, 9.69 NDP, 9.18 BLQ
Pierrefonds--Dollard LIB - 61.98 LIB, 24.75 CON, 7.70 NDP, 3.00 BLQ, 2.39 PPC, 0.19 OTH
Saint-Laurent  LIB - 65.45 LIB, 22.35 CON, 6.81 NDP, 3.12 BLQ, 1.83 PPC, 0.36 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Ville-Marie--Le-Sud-Ouest--Ile-des-Soeurs LIB - 58.50 LIB, 18.79 CON, 13.85 NDP, 5.58 BLQ, 2.98 GRN, 0.29 OTH

Laval (4 seats):
Alfred-Pellan LIB - 55.57 LIB, 20.63 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.89 NDP, 0.28 PPC
Laval-Les Iles LIB - 56.71 LIB, 25.52 CON, 13.06 BLQ, 4.70 NDP
Marc-Aurele-Fortin LIB - 51.63 LIB, 24.96 BLQ, 18.26 CON, 5.15 NDP
Vimy LIB - 57.30 LIB, 20.96 CON, 16.11 BLQ, 5.63 NDP

Laurentides--Outaouais--Northern Quebec (13 seats):
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BLQ - 34.47 LIB, 32.61 BLQ, 23.50 CON, 9.42 NDP
Abitibi--Temiscamingue BLQ - 44.48 BLQ, 31.82 LIB, 18.28 CON, 3.07 NDP, 2.37 OTH
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation LIB - 46.32 LIB, 26.59 BLQ, 18.63 CON, 4.53 PPC, 3.25 NDP, 0.69 GRN
Gatineau LIB - 57.73 LIB, 17.23 BLQ, 16.22 CON, 5.46 NDP, 2.72 PPC, 0.63 OTH
Hull--Aylmer LIB - 59.49 LIB, 15.84 CON, 9.82 BLQ, 8.81 NDP, 3.06 GRN, 2.33 PPC, 0.64 OTH
Laurentides--Labelle BLQ - 46.39 BLQ, 30.66 LIB, 15.76 CON, 2.87 GRN, 2.52 PPC, 1.80 NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut BLQ - 41.54 BLQ, 33.09 LIB, 16.93 CON, 3.25 PPC, 3.18 NDP, 2.00 GRN
Mirabel BLQ - 39.60 BLQ, 31.75 LIB, 18.57 CON, 4.84 NDP, 2.66 PPC, 2.58 GRN
Pontiac-Kitigan Zibi LIB - 50.89 LIB, 26.48 CON, 8.88 BLQ, 7.43 NDP, 3.16 GRN, 3.15 PPC
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles BLQ - 42.37 LIB, 34.34 BLQ, 15.25 CON, 3.28 NDP, 2.06 GRN, 1.40 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Riviere-du-Nord BLQ - 46.07 BLQ, 30.43 LIB, 19.53 CON, 3.96 NDP
Terrebonne BLQ - 37.54 LIB, 36.38 BLQ, 16.72 CON, 3.92 NDP, 2.87 GRN, 2.56 PPC
Therese-De Blainville BLQ - 43.10 LIB, 34.80 BLQ, 16.31 CON, 4.35 NDP, 1.44 PPC

Ontario (122 seats)

Ottawa (8 seats):
Carleton (CON Leader) CON - 56.45 CON, 39.77 LIB, 1.93 GRN, 1.57 NDP, 0.28 OTH
Kanata LIB - 51.78 LIB, 40.50 CON, 5.16 NDP, 2.29 GRN, 0.27 OTH
Nepean (LIB Leader) LIB - 53.62 LIB, 37.71 CON, 6.54 NDP, 1.75 GRN, 0.38 PPC
Orleans LIB - 60.21 LIB, 32.95 CON, 4.83 NDP, 1.43 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Ottawa Centre LIB - 53.38 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 20.06 CON, 2.54 GRN, 0.90 OTH
Ottawa South LIB - 57.98 LIB, 31.22 CON, 8.31 NDP, 1.96 GRN, 0.53 OTH
Ottawa West--Nepean LIB - 53.81 LIB, 32.62 CON, 10.46 NDP, 2.70 GRN, 0.27 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Ottawa--Vanier--Gloucester LIB - 57.33 LIB, 25.61 CON, 13.56 NDP, 2.86 GRN, 0.36 OTH, 0.28 PPC

Eastern Ontario (8 seats):
Algonquin--Renfrew--Pembroke CON - 56.99 CON, 27.82 LIB, 11.45 NDP, 1.88 OTH, 1.86 GRN
Bay of Quinte CON - 46.27 CON, 45.64 LIB, 5.85 NDP, 2.24 GRN
Hastings--Lenox and Addington--Tyendinaga CON - 51.08 CON, 43.15 LIB, 2.04 PPC, 1.98 GRN, 1.75 NDP
Kingston and the Islands LIB - 49.17 LIB, 29.26 CON, 19.22 NDP, 2.35 GRN
Lanark--Frontenac CON - 56.62 CON, 34.48 LIB, 5.99 NDP, 2.92 GRN
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes CON - 55.63 CON, 33.65 LIB, 5.40 NDP, 3.52 GRN, 1.81 PPC
Prescott--Russell--Cumberland LIB - 55.65 LIB, 37.35 CON, 2.38 PPC, 1.84 GRN, 1.64 OTH, 1.14 NDP
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry CON - 61.92 CON, 33.13 LIB, 2.27 GRN, 1.35 NDP, 1.33 OTH

Central Ontario (10 seats):
Barrie South--Innisfil CON - 52.78 CON, 37.29 LIB, 6.16 NDP, 3.77 PPC
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte CON - 52.85 CON, 38.82 LIB, 7.06 NDP, 1.13 OTH, 0.14 GRN
Bruce--Grey--Owen South CON - 54.18 CON, 33.58 LIB, 4.02 PPC, 3.94 NDP, 2.88 GRN, 1.42 OTH
Dufferin--Caledon CON - 54.15 CON, 36.78 LIB, 4.36 GRN, 3.15 PPC, 0.85 OTH, 0.71 NDP
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes CON - 57.52 CON, 33.36 LIB, 5.91 NDP, 3.21 PPC
New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury CON - 52.77 CON, 38.88 LIB, 3.62 PPC, 3.53 NDP, 1.20 GRN
Northumberland--Clarke CON - 48.96 CON, 42.37 LIB, 4.30 NDP, 2.39 GRN, 1.46 PPC, 0.52 OTH
Peterborough CON - 44.18 CON, 43.17 LIB, 9.53 NDP, 2.04 GRN, 0.80 OTH, 0.28 PPC
Simcoe North CON - 47.11 CON, 39.21 LIB, 6.33 NDP, 3.64 PPC, 2.87 GRN, 0.84 OTH
Simcoe--Grey CON - 52.61 CON, 36.42 LIB, 4.17 GRN, 3.70 NDP, 3.09 PPC

Durham--York (15 seats):
Ajax LIB - 64.66 LIB, 28.42 CON, 4.23 NDP, 2.17 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill LIB - 52.61 LIB, 46.62 CON, 0.31 NDP, 0.28 PPC, 0.19 GRN
Bowmanville--Oshawa North CON - 55.10 CON, 36.13 LIB, 5.82 NDP, 2.30 OTH, 0.65 GRN
King--Vaughan CON - 49.72 LIB, 48.58 CON, 1.08 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.27 NDP
Markham--Stouffville LIB - 58.83 LIB, 38.48 CON, 1.80 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.21 NDP
Markham--Thornhill LIB - 68.75 LIB, 29.63 CON, 1.05 NDP, 0.40 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Markham--Unionville LIB - 54.45 LIB, 42.82 CON, 2.42 GRN, 0.31 NDP
Newmarket--Aurora LIB - 53.09 LIB, 43.83 CON, 3.07 NDP
Oshawa CON - 47.15 CON, 31.84 LIB, 19.25 NDP, 1.75 GRN
Pickering--Brooklin LIB - 56.45 LIB, 38.98 CON, 3.81 NDP, 0.35 PPC, 0.34 OTH, 0.06 GRN
Richmond Hill South LIB - 55.82 LIB, 43.34 CON, 0.33 PPC, 0.26 NDP, 0.22 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Thornhill CON - 55.07 CON, 42.52 LIB, 1.47 GRN, 0.58 PPC, 0.37 NDP
Vaughan--Woodbridge LIB - 54.09 LIB, 44.38 CON, 1.36 PPC, 0.17 NDP
Whitby LIB - 53.49 LIB, 39.65 CON, 4.82 NDP, 1.45 GRN, 0.60 OTH
York--Durham CON - 57.18 CON, 36.74 LIB, 3.04 NDP, 2.50 PPC, 0.53 GRN

Suburban Toronto (13 seats):
Don Valley North LIB - 60.76 LIB, 36.90 CON, 1.61 GRN, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 NDP, 0.05 OTH
Etobicoke Centre LIB - 56.98 LIB, 41.36 CON, 1.66 NDP
Etobicoke North LIB - 67.26 LIB, 30.31 CON, 1.05 OTH, 0.95 NDP, 0.34 PPC, 0.09 GRN
Etobicoke--Lakeshore LIB - 56.09 LIB, 37.61 CON, 4.66 NDP, 1.26 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Humber River--Black Creek LIB - 69.37 LIB, 22.45 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.49 OTH
Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East LIB - 64.62 LIB, 30.51 CON, 4.40 NDP, 0.47 PPC
Scarborough North LIB - 75.60 LIB, 22.27 CON, 2.13 NDP
Scarborough Southwest LIB - 65.91 LIB, 25.07 CON, 6.39 NDP, 2.08 GRN, 0.34 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Scarborough--Agincourt LIB - 65.20 LIB, 33.59 CON, 1.21 NDP
Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park LIB - 69.55 LIB, 26.61 CON, 3.77 NDP, 0.08 GRN
Scarborough--Woburn LIB - 68.86 LIB, 26.75 CON, 3.42 NDP, 0.95 OTH, 0.03 GRN
Willowdale LIB - 60.26 LIB, 38.21 CON, 1.53 NDP
York Centre LIB - 55.81 LIB, 43.50 CON, 0.69 NDP

Central Toronto (11 seats):
Beaches--East York LIB - 64.64 LIB, 18.85 CON, 12.97 NDP, 2.51 GRN, 1.03 OTH
Davenport LIB - 51.94 LIB, 29.86 NDP, 15.32 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Don Valley West LIB - 64.93 LIB, 33.80 CON, 0.81 GRN, 0.34 OTH, 0.12 NDP
Eglinton--Lawrence LIB - 55.86 LIB, 40.69 CON, 2.84 GRN, 0.42 PPC, 0.19 NDP
Spadina--Harbourfront LIB - 45.32 LIB, 26.65 CON, 24.15 NDP, 3.05 GRN, 0.45 PPC, 0.38 OTH
Taiaiako'n--Parkdale--High Park LIB - 51.05 LIB, 28.83 NDP, 17.71 CON, 1.67 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Toronto Centre LIB - 58.01 LIB, 17.25 CON, 16.26 NDP, 7.82 GRN, 0.39 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Toronto--Danforth LIB - 56.65 LIB, 23.93 NDP, 16.48 CON, 1.71 GRN, 1.21 OTH
Toronto--St. Paul's CON - 53.84 LIB, 37.12 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.16 NDP, 0.33 PPC, 0.21 OTH
University--Rosedale LIB - 54.90 LIB, 21.90 CON, 18.24 NDP, 4.24 GRN, 0.72 OTH
York South--Weston--Etobicoke LIB - 65.03 LIB, 28.53 CON, 6.45 NDP

Peel (12 seats):
Brampton Centre LIB - 56.49 LIB, 36.48 CON, 6.19 NDP, 0.50 PPC, 0.24 OTH, 0.10 GRN
Brampton East LIB - 60.70 LIB, 32.76 CON, 5.85 NDP, 0.46 PPC, 0.22 OTH
Brampton North--Caledon LIB - 58.54 LIB, 36.69 CON, 4.35 NDP, 0.42 PPC
Brampton South LIB - 61.75 LIB, 33.80 CON, 3.76 NDP, 0.51 PPC, 0.17 OTH
Brampton West LIB - 64.61 LIB, 31.65 CON, 3.05 NDP, 0.63 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Brampton--Chinguacousy Park LIB - 57.72 LIB, 34.58 CON, 7.19 NDP, 0.37 PPC, 0.08 OTH, 0.07 GRN
Mississauga Centre LIB - 62.68 LIB, 33.93 CON, 2.28 NDP, 0.91 OTH, 0.20 PPC
Mississauga East--Cooksville LIB - 58.62 LIB, 36.63 CON, 2.43 PPC, 1.39 OTH, 0.93 NDP
Mississauga--Erin Mills LIB - 59.13 LIB, 38.08 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.66 NDP, 0.36 PPC, 0.32 OTH
Mississauga--Lakeshore LIB - 54.62 LIB, 42.49 CON, 2.32 GRN, 0.40 PPC, 0.12 NDP, 0.06 OTH
Mississauga--Malton LIB - 60.31 LIB, 34.45 CON, 4.79 NDP, 0.45 PPC
Mississauga--Streetsville LIB - 55.73 LIB, 39.42 CON, 2.48 NDP, 2.01 GRN, 0.37 PPC

Hamilton--Halton--Niagara (14 seats):
Burlington LIB - 54.08 LIB, 42.25 CON, 1.79 GRN, 1.21 NDP, 0.41 PPC, 0.26 OTH
Burlington North--Milton West LIB - 56.81 LIB, 41.97 CON, 0.91 NDP, 0.30 PPC
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North CON - 49.21 CON, 40.77 LIB, 4.94 NDP, 2.68 PPC, 2.40 GRN
Hamilton Centre NDP - 37.49 NDP, 34.94 LIB, 21.47 CON, 2.54 PPC, 2.48 GRN, 1.09 OTH
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek LIB - 48.42 LIB, 35.35 CON, 12.79 NDP, 3.45 PPC
Hamilton Mountain LIB - 43.53 LIB, 30.20 CON, 22.58 NDP, 2.26 PPC, 1.43 OTH
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas LIB - 52.63 LIB, 34.12 CON, 10.02 NDP, 2.41 GRN, 0.42 OTH, 0.38 PPC
Milton East--Halton Hills South LIB - 50.31 LIB, 46.05 CON, 2.37 GRN, 0.84 PPC, 0.31 NDP, 0.13 OTH
Niagara Falls--Niagara-on-the-Lake CON - 43.56 LIB, 42.40 CON, 8.20 NDP, 3.55 PPC, 1.76 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara South CON - 41.27 LIB, 38.43 CON, 13.15 NDP, 4.92 PPC, 1.71 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Niagara West CON - 49.17 CON, 40.25 LIB, 5.47 NDP, 3.06 PPC, 2.04 OTH
Oakville East LIB - 53.88 LIB, 43.86 CON, 1.45 GRN, 0.33 PPC, 0.32 OTH, 0.16 NDP
Oakville West LIB - 55.16 LIB, 42.59 CON, 1.53 GRN, 0.37 PPC, 0.22 NDP, 0.12 OTH
St. Catharines LIB - 46.80 LIB, 37.48 CON, 12.33 NDP, 2.57 PPC, 0.82 OTH

Midwestern Ontario (12 seats):
Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations CON - 45.27 CON, 35.99 LIB, 10.52 NDP, 4.75 PPC, 2.46 GRN, 1.01 OTH
Cambridge LIB - 46.69 LIB, 41.28 CON, 7.56 NDP, 3.33 GRN, 1.15 OTH
Guelph LIB - 49.59 LIB, 28.42 CON, 12.48 NDP, 7.69 GRN, 1.18 OTH, 0.64 PPC
Haldimand--Norfolk CON - 52.39 CON, 35.86 LIB, 6.47 PPC, 3.64 NDP, 1.50 OTH, 0.13 GRN
Huron--Bruce CON - 58.16 CON, 34.61 LIB, 5.27 NDP, 1.85 OTH, 0.11 GRN
Kitchener Centre GRN - 33.14 GRN, 29.87 CON, 25.69 LIB, 7.85 NDP, 2.64 PPC, 0.80 OTH
Kitchener South--Hespeler LIB - 45.80 LIB, 40.54 CON, 6.62 NDP, 3.26 GRN, 2.72 PPC, 1.06 OTH
Kitchener--Conestoga LIB - 48.48 LIB, 43.25 CON, 4.72 NDP, 3.55 PPC
Oxford CON - 50.26 CON, 35.20 LIB, 5.65 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 2.84 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Perth--Wellington CON - 53.66 CON, 33.03 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 5.74 PPC
Waterloo LIB - 53.89 LIB, 32.38 CON, 9.48 NDP, 3.23 GRN, 0.52 OTH, 0.50 PPC
Wellington--Halton Hills North CON - 51.96 CON, 38.83 LIB, 4.64 GRN, 2.30 NDP, 2.27 PPC

Southwestern Ontario (10 seats):
Chatham-Kent--Leamington CON - 47.52 CON, 35.18 LIB, 10.81 PPC, 5.06 NDP, 1.43 GRN
Elgin--St. Thomas--London South CON - 54.70 CON, 28.97 LIB, 8.55 PPC, 7.78 NDP
Essex CON - 46.33 CON, 24.42 LIB, 22.78 NDP, 6.47 PPC
London Centre LIB - 46.00 LIB, 29.75 CON, 20.72 NDP, 1.77 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.67 OTH
London West LIB - 45.18 LIB, 39.88 CON, 13.27 NDP, 1.46 OTH, 0.21 GRN
London--Fanshawe NDP - 33.83 NDP, 31.51 LIB, 29.39 CON, 5.27 PPC
Middlesex--London CON - 50.91 CON, 35.39 LIB, 7.60 NDP, 3.74 PPC, 1.64 GRN, 0.71 OTH
Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong CON - 51.79 CON, 28.19 LIB, 11.62 NDP, 7.01 PPC, 1.39 OTH
Windsor West NDP - 36.12 LIB, 34.59 NDP, 24.34 CON, 4.32 PPC, 0.61 OTH, 0.02 GRN
Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore LIB - 39.35 LIB, 31.94 CON, 20.60 NDP, 6.27 PPC, 1.02 GRN, 0.82 OTH

Northern Ontario (9 seats):
Kapuskasing--Timmins--Mushkegowuk NDP - 34.94 LIB, 30.21 CON, 26.43 NDP, 8.41 PPC
Kenora--Kiiwetinoong CON - 48.38 CON, 28.19 LIB, 19.32 NDP, 2.37 PPC, 1.21 GRN, 0.52 OTH
Nipissing--Timiskaming LIB - 45.14 LIB, 36.94 CON, 13.74 NDP, 3.95 PPC, 0.23 GRN
Parry Sound--Muskoka CON - 53.78 CON, 32.24 LIB, 9.97 NDP, 4.01 PPC
Sault Ste. Marie--Algoma CON - 41.59 CON, 40.73 LIB, 16.15 NDP, 1.04 OTH, 0.50 GRN
Sudbury LIB - 44.26 LIB, 33.15 CON, 20.29 NDP, 2.30 PPC
Sudbury East--Manitoulin--Nickel Belt LIB - 40.22 LIB, 31.96 CON, 20.68 NDP, 4.94 PPC, 1.54 GRN, 0.67 OTH
Thunder Bay--Rainy River LIB - 42.71 LIB, 34.39 CON, 18.90 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 1.35 GRN
Thunder Bay--Superior North LIB - 48.93 LIB, 29.00 CON, 18.30 NDP, 2.03 PPC, 1.74 GRN

Prairies (28 seats)

Rural Manitoba (6 seats):
Brandon--Souris CON - 61.52 CON, 28.70 LIB, 9.78 NDP
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP - 42.44 LIB, 32.82 NDP, 24.62 CON, 0.12 PPC
Portage--Lisgar CON - 57.93 CON, 26.67 LIB, 14.01 PPC, 1.10 GRN, 0.28 NDP
Provencher CON - 49.11 CON, 33.63 LIB, 12.02 PPC, 3.11 GRN, 2.13 NDP
Riding Mountain CON - 59.58 CON, 29.52 LIB, 4.62 PPC, 4.03 NDP, 2.25 GRN
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman CON - 57.09 CON, 29.72 LIB, 8.71 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.50 PPC, 0.40 OTH

Winnipeg (8 seats):
Elmwood--Transcona NDP - 37.38 NDP, 34.56 CON, 26.81 LIB, 0.99 GRN, 0.26 PPC
Kildonan--St. Paul CON - 44.38 LIB, 42.40 CON, 13.04 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital LIB - 60.62 LIB, 28.33 CON, 10.87 NDP, 0.18 PPC
Winnipeg Centre NDP - 45.28 LIB, 38.92 NDP, 12.82 CON, 2.43 GRN, 0.38 OTH, 0.16 PPC
Winnipeg North LIB - 69.19 LIB, 16.06 NDP, 12.88 CON, 1.24 GRN, 0.32 PPC, 0.31 OTH
Winnipeg South LIB - 63.34 LIB, 31.27 CON, 3.77 NDP, 1.52 GRN, 0.09 PPC
Winnipeg South Centre LIB - 63.69 LIB, 25.09 CON, 8.05 NDP, 2.71 GRN, 0.33 OTH, 0.13 PPC 
Winnipeg West CON - 55.22 LIB, 38.73 CON, 4.07 NDP, 1.98 GRN

Southern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan CON - 61.47 CON, 22.95 LIB, 8.69 NDP, 5.55 PPC, 1.33 GRN
Regina--Lewvan CON - 45.49 CON, 29.89 LIB, 23.12 NDP, 1.27 GRN, 0.23 PPC 
Regina--Qu'Appelle CON - 60.11 CON, 27.07 LIB, 12.58 NDP, 0.24 PPC
Regina--Wascana CON - 48.73 CON, 42.07 LIB, 7.48 NDP, 1.65 GRN, 0.08 PPC
Souris--Moose Mountain CON - 78.43 CON, 20.92 LIB, 0.22 NDP, 0.22 GRN, 0.21 OTH
Swift Current-Grasslands--Kindersley CON - 73.88 CON, 21.05 LIB, 4.96 OTH, 0.11 NDP
Yorkton--Melville CON - 71.19 CON, 23.04 LIB, 2.20 OTH, 1.88 GRN, 1.69 NDP

Northern Saskatchewan (7 seats):
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Meadow Lake CON - 66.62 CON, 24.30 LIB, 5.28 OTH, 3.81 NDP
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek CON - 71.71 CON, 23.44 LIB, 4.85 NDP
Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River LIB - 59.04 LIB, 26.12 CON, 14.83 NDP
Prince Albert CON - 65.18 CON, 29.29 LIB, 5.53 NDP
Saskatoon South CON - 48.71 CON, 30.39 LIB, 19.53 NDP, 1.26 GRN, 0.10 PPC
Saskatoon West CON - 45.54 CON, 28.60 NDP, 24.70 LIB, 1.08 GRN, 0.07 PPC
Saskatoon--University CON - 46.98 CON, 27.43 LIB, 24.68 NDP, 0.91 GRN

Alberta (37 seats)

Northern Alberta (8 seats):
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CON - 71.57 CON, 19.24 LIB, 7.52 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.22 NDP, 0.20 OTH
Grande Prairie CON - 73.15 CON, 16.55 LIB, 5.03 PPC, 3.47 OTH, 1.81 NDP
Lakeland CON - 73.53 CON, 17.24 LIB, 5.87 PPC, 1.84 OTH, 1.14 GRN, 0.37 NDP
Leduc--Wetaskiwin CON - 67.42 CON, 18.86 LIB, 7.51 NDP, 6.07 PPC, 0.14 OTH
Parkland CON - 67.26 CON, 18.46 LIB, 6.14 PPC, 6.11 NDP, 1.77 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Peace River--Westlock CON - 71.89 CON, 18.34 LIB, 6.02 OTH, 3.75 NDP
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan CON - 61.68 CON, 24.50 LIB, 10.50 NDP, 1.83 PPC, 1.24 GRN, 0.24 OTH
St. Albert--Sturgeon River CON - 60.30 CON, 23.48 LIB, 13.40 NDP, 2.65 PPC, 0.18 OTH

Edmonton (9 seats):
Edmonton Centre CON - 42.99 LIB, 36.10 CON, 19.88 NDP, 0.69 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Edmonton Gateway CON - 47.05 CON, 37.96 LIB, 10.51 NDP, 3.55 OTH, 0.93 PPC
Edmonton Greisbach NDP - 40.15 CON, 30.02 NDP, 27.27 LIB, 1.40 GRN, 0.74 PPC, 0.43 OTH
Edmonton Manning CON - 44.89 CON, 32.56 LIB, 20.70 NDP, 1.84 PPC
Edmonton Northwest CON - 46.50 CON, 34.76 LIB, 17.39 NDP, 1.06 PPC, 0.29 GRN
Edmonton Riverbend CON - 48.54 CON, 36.86 LIB, 13.97 NDP, 0.64 PPC
Edmonton Southeast CON - 45.78 LIB, 41.03 CON, 11.56 NDP, 0.95 PPC, 0.68 OTH
Edmonton Strathcona NDP - 46.89 NDP, 30.02 CON, 20.41 LIB, 1.51 GRN, 0.77 PPC, 0.39 OTH
Edmonton West CON - 49.02 CON, 35.98 LIB, 13.69 NDP, 0.91 PPC, 0.40 OTH

Calgary (11 seats):
Calgary Centre CON - 51.65 CON, 39.11 LIB, 6.29 NDP, 1.89 GRN, 0.71 PPC, 0.35 OTH
Calgary Confederation CON - 48.55 CON, 39.06 LIB, 7.58 NDP, 3.96 GRN, 0.64 PPC, 0.21 OTH
Calgary Crowfoot CON - 58.05 CON, 32.83 LIB, 6.03 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.89 PPC, 0.25 OTH
Calgary East CON - 56.75 CON, 30.50 LIB, 7.99 NDP, 2.93 GRN, 2.02 PPC, 0.34 OTH
Calgary Heritage CON - 64.10 CON, 27.91 LIB, 6.17 NDP, 1.73 GRN, 0.09 OTH
Calgary McKnight LIB - 54.59 LIB, 36.64 CON, 5.99 NDP, 1.39 GRN, 0.87 PPC, 0.51 OTH
Calgary Midnapore CON - 64.31 CON, 24.71 LIB, 8.45 NDP, 1.61 GRN, 0.91 PPC
Calgary Nose Hill CON - 59.16 CON, 32.07 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 1.87 GRN, 0.08 OTH
Calgary Shepard CON - 65.29 CON, 26.14 LIB, 5.88 NDP, 1.95 GRN, 0.74 OTH
Calgary Signal Hill CON - 63.01 CON, 31.07 LIB, 4.76 NDP, 0.87 PPC, 0.28 OTH
Calgary Skyview CON - 47.43 CON, 45.42 LIB, 6.82 NDP, 0.32 OTH

Southern Alberta (9 seats):
Airdrie--Cochrane CON - 66.52 CON, 22.84 LIB, 5.46 NDP, 5.18 OTH
Battle River--Crowfoot CON - 76.08 CON, 17.08 LIB, 4.68 PPC, 1.73 GRN, 0.43 NDP
Bow River CON - 76.92 CON, 20.38 LIB, 2.34 OTH, 0.36 NDP
Foothills CON - 73.02 CON, 19.69 LIB, 3.50 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 1.74 NDP
Lethbridge CON - 59.78 CON, 27.42 LIB, 9.17 NDP, 1.77 PPC, 1.61 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner CON - 73.32 CON, 19.96 LIB, 4.41 NDP, 2.31 GRN
Ponoka--Didsbury CON - 73.54 CON, 9.06 OTH, 9.05 NDP, 8.34 PPC
Red Deer CON - 64.40 CON, 20.59 LIB, 7.39 NDP, 6.04 PPC, 1.32 OTH, 0.26 GRN
Yellowhead CON - 64.13 CON, 23.63 LIB, 5.32 NDP, 3.99 PPC, 2.93 OTH

British Columbia (43 seats)

BC Interior (10 seats):
Cariboo--Prince George CON - 57.34 CON, 29.94 LIB, 4.99 NDP, 4.97 PPC, 1.86 GRN, 0.89 OTH
Columbia--Kootenay--Southern Rockies CON - 49.76 CON, 22.61 LIB, 21.33 NDP, 3.82 PPC, 2.05 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Kamloops--Shuswap--Central Rockies CON - 51.15 CON, 30.41 LIB, 9.94 NDP, 4.88 PPC, 3.62 GRN
Kamloops--Thompson--Nicola CON - 49.68 CON, 31.59 LIB, 13.56 NDP, 2.87 PPC, 2.30 GRN
Kelowna CON - 51.08 CON, 40.50 LIB, 6.56 NDP, 1.86 GRN
Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna CON - 54.47 CON, 37.05 LIB, 3.47 NDP, 3.45 PPC, 1.13 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies CON - 65.63 CON, 23.33 LIB, 7.45 PPC, 2.20 GRN, 1.39 NDP
Similkameen--South Okanagan--West Kootenay NDP - 43.80 CON, 27.13 LIB, 23.61 NDP, 3.66 PPC, 1.80 GRN
Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP - 45.22 CON, 27.50 NDP, 21.53 LIB, 3.43 OTH, 2.32 GRN
Vernon--Lake Country--Monashee CON - 54.49 CON, 33.99 LIB, 7.26 NDP, 4.25 GRN

Fraser Valley--Southern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Abbotsford--South Langley CON - 32.90 CON, 31.65 LIB, 27.26 OTH, 3.73 PPC, 2.97 NDP, 1.50 GRN
Chilliwack--Hope CON - 51.92 CON, 30.98 LIB, 11.12 NDP, 4.36 PPC, 1.19 GRN, 0.43 OTH
Cloverdale--Langley City CON - 48.88 CON, 46.87 LIB, 2.93 NDP, 1.07 PPC, 0.26 GRN
Delta LIB - 56.32 LIB, 39.24 CON, 3.46 NDP, 0.98 PPC
Fleetwood--Port Kells LIB - 47.71 LIB, 45.89 CON, 5.05 NDP, 1.05 PPC, 0.30 GRN
Langley Township--Fraser Heights CON - 49.99 CON, 43.24 LIB, 4.28 NDP, 1.21 PPC, 0.81 GRN, 0.47 OTH
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford CON - 53.47 CON, 37.88 LIB, 3.75 PPC, 2.75 NDP, 2.14 GRN
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge CON - 43.12 CON, 37.90 LIB, 15.45 NDP, 2.24 PPC, 1.29 OTH
Richmond Centre--Marpole LIB - 51.65 LIB, 40.84 CON, 4.93 NDP, 1.50 GRN, 1.08 PPC
Richmond East--Steveston LIB - 55.63 LIB, 39.44 CON, 4.18 NDP, 0.75 GRN
South Surrey--White Rock CON - 51.32 LIB, 47.52 CON, 0.97 NDP, 0.18 GRN
Surrey Centre LIB - 44.27 LIB, 40.76 CON, 12.37 NDP, 1.09 PPC, 0.93 OTH, 0.59 GRN
Surrey--Newton LIB - 53.27 LIB, 34.98 CON, 10.14 NDP, 1.61 OTH

Vancouver--Northern Lower Mainland (13 seats):
Burnaby Central (NDP Leader) NDP - 45.46 LIB, 28.24 CON, 25.14 NDP, 1.17 PPC
Burnaby North--Seymour LIB - 54.99 LIB, 32.44 CON, 11.67 NDP, 0.90 PPC
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam LIB - 51.23 LIB, 36.42 CON, 12.04 NDP, 0.23 OTH, 0.09 GRN
New Westminster--Burnaby--Maillardville NDP - 37.03 LIB, 32.83 NDP, 27.38 CON, 2.21 GRN, 0.55 OTH
North Vancouver--Capilano LIB - 57.82 LIB, 34.93 CON, 3.48 NDP, 2.58 GRN, 1.08 PPC, 0.10 OTH
Port Moody--Coquitlam NDP - 42.86 LIB, 37.64 CON, 19.36 NDP, 0.07 GRN, 0.07 OTH
Vancouver Centre LIB - 53.99 LIB, 27.51 CON, 14.58 NDP, 2.18 GRN, 1.09 PPC, 0.65 OTH
Vancouver East NDP - 41.13 NDP, 33.49 LIB, 16.90 CON, 6.09 GRN, 1.27 OTH, 1.12 PPC
Vancouver Fraserview--South Burnaby LIB - 55.72 LIB, 27.55 CON, 15.58 NDP, 1.07 OTH 
Vancouver Granville LIB - 50.96 LIB, 29.99 CON, 17.87 NDP, 1.18 GRN
Vancouver Kingsway NDP - 42.39 LIB, 34.86 NDP, 19.75 CON, 2.00 GRN, 1.00 PPC
Vancouver Quadra LIB - 56.23 LIB, 34.40 CON, 4.34 GRN, 4.05 NDP, 0.98 PPC
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country LIB - 46.58 LIB, 34.90 CON, 11.99 NDP, 5.24 GRN, 1.03 PPC, 0.26 OTH

Vancouver Island (7 seats):
Courtenay--Alberni NDP - 37.37 CON, 27.65 NDP, 27.35 LIB, 5.35 GRN, 1.70 PPC, 0.58 OTH
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford NDP - 36.68 CON, 30.45 LIB, 27.89 NDP, 4.98 GRN
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke NDP - 35.63 LIB, 28.14 NDP, 27.83 CON, 7.32 GRN, 1.08 OTH
Nanaimo--Ladysmith NDP - 32.62 CON, 26.96 LIB, 24.34 GRN, 14.27 NDP, 1.81 PPC
North Island--Powell River NDP - 42.30 CON, 27.07 LIB, 24.06 NDP, 4.26 GRN, 1.29 PPC, 1.02 OTH
Saanich--Gulf Islands (GRN co-Leader) GRN - 34.26 GRN, 32.71 LIB, 28.69 CON, 4.32 NDP
Victoria NDP - 40.99 LIB, 28.63 NDP, 19.72 CON, 9.57 GRN, 1.01 PPC, 0.07 OTH

Territories (3 seats)

Nunavut NDP - 51.71 LIB, 36.29 NDP, 12.01 CON
Northwest Territories LIB - 52.92 LIB, 24.59 NDP, 17.54 CON, 4.96 GRN
Yukon LIB - 50.32 LIB, 33.34 CON, 10.39 NDP, 5.95 GRN